Pediatric primary care services in Manitoba: is the health of the next generation of children at risk?
OBJECTIVE
Physician resource planning is an important part of health policy, but to date there are no studies measuring the primary care service needs of a particular population. The aim of this study was to project the expected provision of physician services for the pediatric population of one Canadian province for 2020.


METHODS
A novel standardized measure of physician service provision, the equivalent services measure, was developed using mathematical modeling. Population projections and past use of services were used to calculate the projected service needs for the pediatric population of Manitoba.


RESULTS
Despite projecting a small increase in the pediatric population (2.8%), our model predicted a decrease of 13.4% in the services that would be provided.


CONCLUSIONS
The findings of this study indicate that the health of future generations of children may be at risk. Further research is needed to determine the effect of the reduction in pediatric service provision on the health of the pediatric population.
Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, 408-727 McDermot Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0W3, Canada. alan katz@cpe.umanitoba.ca
Alan
A
Katz
Bogdan
B
Bogdanovic
Okechukwu
O
Ekuma
Ruth-Ann
RA
Soodeen
Jennifer
J
Enns
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008350:Manitoba; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010372:Pediatrics; D010820:Physicians / Q000600:supply & distribution; D011158:Population Growth; D011320:Primary Health Care; D000078329:Workforce; D055815:Young Adult