C-reactive protein predicts short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis.
OBJECTIVE
We aimed at improving prediction of short-term mortality in cirrhotic inpatients by evaluating C-reactive protein (CRP) as a surrogate marker of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS).


METHODS
One-hundred and forty-eight consecutive cirrhotic patients with Child-Pugh score ≥ B8 and without hepatocellular carcinoma were prospectively included and followed for 182 days. The primary end point was 6-month survival.


RESULTS
Main baseline characteristics were as follows: alcoholic liver disease in 88.5%; bacterial infection in 37%; hepatorenal syndrome in 7% of cases. CRP range was 1-240 mg/L (median 26 mg/L); 42 patients (28.4%) had SIRS as defined by ACCP/SCCM-criteria. CRP levels were higher in patients with SIRS (50 vs. 21 mg/L; p<0.0001), infection (46 vs. 27 mg/L; p<0.0001), and alcoholic hepatitis (44 vs. 32 mg/L, p=0.049). Forty-two patients died within the first 6 months of follow-up. Short-term mortality was associated with extrahepatic co-morbidities (p=0.002), high MELD score (p<0.001; AUROC=0.67), renal failure (p=0.008), elevated blood lactates (p<0.001), and high baseline CRP levels (p=0.003; AUROC=0.63; best cut-off value at 29 mg/L). Among patients with baseline CRP ≥ 29 mg/L, 32 still had CRP ≥ 29 mg/L at day 15 (group A). Group A was associated with 6-month mortality in the overall population (p<0.001) and also through sensitivity analyses restricted to patients without infection or alcoholic hepatitis. Multivariate analysis (Cox) adjusted for age identified three predictors of mortality: high MELD score (HR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.03-1.12; p<0.001), extrahepatic co-morbidities (HR=2.51; 95% CI: 1.31-4.84; p=0.006), and CRP level (group A) (HR=2.73; 95% CI: 1.41-5.26; p=0.003). The performance of the three variables taken together for predicting death was 0.80 (AUROC).


CONCLUSIONS
In Child-Pugh score ≥ B8 cirrhotic patients, persistent CRP levels ≥ 29 mg/L predicted short-term mortality independently of age, MELD, and co-morbidities, and better than infection or clinically-assessed SIRS.
Université de Franche Comté et Service d'hépatologie et de soins intensifs digestifs, Besançon, France.
Jean-Paul
JP
Cervoni
Thierry
T
Thévenot
Delphine
D
Weil
Emilie
E
Muel
Olivier
O
Barbot
Frances
F
Sheppard
Elisabeth
E
Monnet
Vincent
V
Di Martino
D002097:C-Reactive Protein / Q000032:analysis*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D018746:Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome / Q000097:blood
D002097:C-Reactive Protein