A three-component biomarker panel for prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever.
Dengue virus infections are a major cause of morbidity in tropical countries. Early detection of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) may help identify individuals that would benefit from intensive therapy. Predictive modeling was performed using 11 laboratory values of 51 individuals (38 DF and 13 DHF) obtained on initial presentation using logistic regression. We produced a robust model with an area under the curve of 0.9615 that retained IL-10 levels, platelets, and lymphocytes as the major predictive features. A classification and regression tree was developed on these features that were 86% accurate on cross-validation. The IL-10 levels and platelet counts were also identified as the most informative features associated with DHF using a Random Forest classifier. In the presence of polymerase chain reaction-proven acute dengue infections, we suggest a complete blood count and rapid measurement of IL-10 can assist in the triage of potential DHF cases for close follow-up or clinical intervention improving clinical outcome.
Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA. arbrasie@utmb.edu
Allan R
AR
Brasier
Hyunsu
H
Ju
Josefina
J
Garcia
Heidi M
HM
Spratt
Sundar S
SS
Victor
Brett M
BM
Forshey
Eric S
ES
Halsey
Guillermo
G
Comach
Gloria
G
Sierra
Patrick J
PJ
Blair
Claudio
C
Rocha
Amy C
AC
Morrison
Thomas W
TW
Scott
Isabel
I
Bazan
Tadeusz J
TJ
Kochel
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003663:Decision Trees; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016753:Interleukin-10 / Q000097:blood; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010976:Platelet Count; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D019595:Severe Dengue / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis*; D055815:Young Adult
D015415:Biomarkers; D016753:Interleukin-10