[Probabilistic evaluation of dietary exposure to lead and age-related exposure centile for residents in Jiangsu].
OBJECTIVE
To establish a probabilistic model for evaluation of dietary exposure to lead and construct age-related exposure centiles for the residents in Jiangsu.


METHODS
Lead contamination data were obtained from the national food contamination monitoring program during 2001 - 2006 and 2791 samples from 232 food products in Jiangsu were included. Food consumption data were from the national diet and nutrition survey conducted in 2002, including 3938 subjects in Jiangsu. A non-parametric probabilistic model using Monte Carlo simulation was applied to derive the intake distribution. The intake data was then analyzed using the LMS method, which constructs exposure percentiles adjusted for the median (M), the coefficient of variation (S) and the skewness (L) of the intake distribution.


RESULTS
The median and P(99) of the lead exposure for the residents in Jiangsu were 1.02 µg×kg(-1)×d(-) and 9.29 µg×kg(-1)×d(-1), respectively.6.38% of the total population showed to have a lead intake exceeding the tolerable limit, which for the urban and rural population were 4.31% and 7.06%, respectively. The exceeding rate for children of 2 - 10 years old from the urban and rural areas were 13.17% and 17.70%, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
There was a large variation in the lead exposure level of the population in Jiangsu; People in rural areas are in greater risk for higher lead exposure than urban people; The dietary exposure to lead for children and the high-end population was serious.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China.
Jin-fang
JF
Sun
Can-nan
CN
Wang
Bao-jun
BJ
Yuan
Zi-hua
ZH
Tian
Qiang
Q
Fu
Pei
P
Liu
D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D007854:Lead / Q000032:analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment
D007854:Lead