The protective effects of temporary immunity under imposed infection pressure.
The aim of this paper is to show in explicit detail that, due to the effects of waning and boosting of immunity, an increasing force of infection does not necessarily lead to an increase in the incidence of disease. Under certain conditions, a decrease of the force of infection may in fact lead to an increase of the incidence of disease. Thus we confirm and reinforce the conclusions from Águas et al. (2006), concerning pertussis. We do so, however, in the context of Campylobacter infections in humans deriving from animal reservoirs. For such an externally 'driven' epidemic we can ignore the transmission feedback cycle and treat the force of infection as a parameter. As this parameter is, to a certain extent, under public health control, our findings constitute an important warning: reducing exposure may not necessarily lead to a reduction in the occurrence of clinical illness. In a second part of the paper we relate the model parameters to the available data concerning campylobacteriosis.
National Institute of Public Health and The Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. arno.swart@rivm.nl
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Swart
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Tomasi
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M
Kretzschmar
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AH
Havelaar
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Diekmann
D002169:Campylobacter Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D006801:Humans; D007109:Immunity; D008017:Life Expectancy; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D018448:Models, Immunological; D015233:Models, Statistical