Projections of diagnosed HIV infection in children and adolescents in New York State.
Decreasing mother-to-child transmission is changing the population of children and adolescents with HIV. This project used recent epidemiological data to develop short-term projections of children and adolescents living with diagnosed HIV infection in New York State. A population simulation model was created to project prevalence of diagnosed HIV cases aged 0-19 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity and risk for years 2007-2014. Using 2006 data as the baseline population and 2001-2006 diagnosis and death data, annual diagnoses and deaths were calculated for each age/sex/race/risk category and known cases were 'aged' into the next year. The model produced annual estimates until 2014. The model predicts a decline in the number of persons aged 0-19 years living with diagnosed HIV in New York from 2810 in 2006 to 1431 in 2014, a net decrease of 49%. Living cases with paediatric risk continue to decrease. Cases aged 13-19 with non-paediatric risk increase slowly, leading to a shift in the risk composition of the population. The dominant effect seen in the model is the ageing out of perinatally infected children born before measures to prevent mother-to-child transmission were broadly implemented in the mid- to late 1990s. Changing trends in the young HIV-infected population should be considered in developing public health programmes for HIV prevention and care in New York State for the coming years.
Bureau of HIV/AIDS Epidemiology, NYS Department of Health AIDS Institute, NYS Department of Health, Albany, NY 12237, USA. deg02@health.state.ny.us
Daniel E
DE
Gordon
Lusine R
LR
Ghazaryan
Julia
J
Maslak
Bridget J
BJ
Anderson
Kathleen S
KS
Brousseau
Alvaro F
AF
Carrascal
Lou C
LC
Smith
D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000635:transmission*; D006266:Health Education; D018451:Homosexuality, Male; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009518:New York / Q000453:epidemiology; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious; D011634:Public Health; D012307:Risk Factors; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous; D055815:Young Adult