Forecasting continuously increasing life expectancy: what implications?
It has been proposed that life expectancy could linearly increase in the next decades and that median longevity of the youngest birth cohorts could reach 105 years or more. These forecasts have been criticized but it seems that their implications for future maximal lifespan (i.e. the lifespan of the last survivors) have not been considered. These implications make these forecasts untenable and it is less risky to hypothesize that life expectancy and maximal lifespan will reach an asymptotic limit in some decades from now.
Université Paul-Sabatier, Centre de Recherche sur la Cognition Animale, UMR CNRS, Toulouse, France. lebourg@cict.fr
Eric
E
Le Bourg
D017677:Age Distribution; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D016014:Linear Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics