Smoking reduction at midlife and lifetime mortality risk in men: a prospective cohort study.
Previous studies have not shown a survival advantage for smoking reduction. The authors assessed survival and life expectancy according to changes in smoking intensity in a cohort of Israeli working men. Baseline smokers recruited in 1963 were reassessed in 1965 (n = 4,633; mean age, 51 years) and followed up prospectively for mortality through 2005. Smoking intensity at both time points was self-reported and categorized as none, 1-10, 11-20, and ≥21 cigarettes per day. Change between smoking categories was noted, and participants were classified as increased (8%), maintained (65%), reduced (17%), or quit (10%) smoking. During a median follow-up of 26 (quartiles 1-3: 16-35) years, 87% of participants died. Changes in intensity were associated with survival. In multivariable-adjusted models, the hazard ratios for mortality were 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99, 1.32) among increasers, 0.85 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.95) among reducers, and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.89) among quitters, compared with maintainers. Inversely, the adjusted odds ratios of surviving to age 80 years were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.98), 1.22 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.47), and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.66), respectively. The survival benefit associated with smoking reduction was mostly evident among heavy smokers and for cardiovascular disease mortality. These results suggest that decreasing smoking intensity should be considered as a risk-reduction strategy for heavy smokers who cannot quit abruptly.
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel. yarivg@post.tau.ac.il
Yariv
Y
Gerber
Vicki
V
Myers
Uri
U
Goldbourt
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality; D002423:Cause of Death; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016017:Odds Ratio; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012306:Risk; D040242:Risk Reduction Behavior; D057566:Self Report; D012907:Smoking / Q000401:mortality*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*