title: Replacement predictions for drinking water networks through historical data.
abstract: Lifetime distribution functions and current network age data can be combined to provide an assessment of the future replacement needs for drinking water distribution networks. Reliable lifetime predictions are limited by a lack of understanding of deterioration processes for different pipe materials under varied conditions. An alternative approach is the use of real historical data for replacement over an extended time series. In this paper, future replacement needs are predicted through historical data representing more than one hundred years of drinking water pipe replacement in Gothenburg, Sweden. The verified data fits well with commonly used lifetime distribution curves. Predictions for the future are discussed in the context of path dependence theory.
authors.affiliation: Gothenburg Water, Box 123, SE-424 23 Angered, Sweden. annika.malm@vatten.goteborg.se
authors.forename: Annika
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Malm
authors.forename: Olle
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Ljunggren
authors.forename: Olof
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Bergstedt
authors.forename: Thomas J R
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Pettersson
authors.forename: Gregory M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Morrison
mesh_terms: D060766:Drinking Water; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D018803:Models, Economic; D013548:Sweden; D014881:Water Supply / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
chemical_list: D060766:Drinking Water