title: Clinical calculator of conditional survival estimates for resected and unresected survivors of pancreatic cancer.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To calculate conditional survival estimates for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
  
  
  METHODS
  We constructed separate multivariate survival models adjusted for 7 clinicopathologic factors for patients who did and did not undergo radical surgical resection.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 1988 and 2005 included in the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results cancer registry.
  
  
  METHODS
  Internet browser-based calculator to compute personalized survival estimates.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Conditional survival probabilities increased over time for all patients with pancreatic cancer regardless of patient characteristics, disease stage, or treatment. For patients with resected stage I, II, or III disease, 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival increased from 38% to 70%, 19% to 54%, and 8% to 39%, respectively, over the 3 years following diagnosis. The relative improvement in survival over time was larger for patients with advanced disease. A customizable, Internet browser-based clinical calculator was implemented that may be used to compute in real time personalized conditional survival estimates based on an individual's unique clinicopathologic profile.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Conditional survival estimates provide a more accurate--and typically more optimistic--assessment of prognosis for patients with pancreatic cancer than traditional survival estimates that apply only at the initial diagnosis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77230, USA. mhgkatz@mdanderson.org
authors.forename: Matthew H G
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Katz
authors.forename: Chung-Yuan
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.forename: Jason B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Fleming
authors.forename: Peter W T
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Pisters
authors.forename: Jeffrey E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: George J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Chang
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D010180:Pancreatectomy; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery; D016577:Pancreaticoduodenectomy; D011379:Prognosis; D018426:SEER Program