title: Longitudinal follow-up of poor inner-city youth between ages 8 and 18: intentions versus reality.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  (1) To document, at ages 8 to 10, children's perceptions of their future and, at ages 16 to 18, youth outcomes; and (2) to assess early childhood factors associated with trajectory-altering events (TAEs), defined as youth risk behaviors that may modify developmental trajectories.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective longitudinal study of 97 poor, inner-city, African American youth followed since birth who completed (1) early childhood environment, cognitive, and social-emotional evaluations, as well as an inventory at ages 8 to 10 of perceptions of their futures; and (2) evaluation for presence or absence of 4 TAEs documented at ages 16 to 18: drug use, adjudication, school failure, and teen parenthood.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At age 9.4 ± 0.5, 94% of participants felt it unlikely they would try marijuana; 93% felt they were unlikely to get arrested; 92% felt they were likely to attend college or trade school; 81% did not know one could become pregnant with first-time sex. Age 18.1 ± 0.8 outcomes showed that 33% had used drugs, 33% had been adjudicated, 19% had school failure, and 20% had become parents. Fifty-six percent had ≥1 TAE. No relationship was found between childhood perceptions and intentions and documented outcomes. Odds of having a TAE increased with greater exposure to violence and poorer home environment.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Young inner-city children are idealistic regarding their future. By ages 16 to 18 however, more than half of this cohort had a TAE. Factors most strongly associated with a TAE were greater exposure to violence and poorer home environment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. handzel@email.chop.edu
authors.forename: Jennifer M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Handzel
authors.forename: Nancy
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Brodsky
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Betancourt
authors.forename: Hallam
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hurt
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D001741:Black or African American / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005260:Female; D054624:Health Status Disparities; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011203:Poverty / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012649:Self Concept; D012737:Sex Factors; D013315:Stress, Psychological; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014481:United States; D014505:Urban Population; D014754:Violence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*