title: Influenza vaccine match with circulating strains and indicators of influenza strain impact - Canada 1980 to 1992.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the similarity between influenza vaccine antigens and viruses associated with laboratory-confirmed infections by virus type/subtype, strain and influenza season; to correlate pneumonia and influenza hospitalization and mortality rates with the number of laboratory-confirmed influenza infections in an influenza season; and to develop predictive indicators of the likely incidence of current strains in the following season.
  
  
  METHODS
  Ecological study using national laboratory, pneumonia and influenza hospitalization and mortality data.
  
  
  METHODS
  Canada, influenza seasons from 1980 to 1992.
  
  
  METHODS
  Individuals with laboratory-confirmed influenza infections, pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations or deaths.
  
  
  METHODS
  Influenza immunization.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Similarity of circulating strains and vaccine antigens was 99% for A(H1N1), 65% for A(H3N2) and 65% for B strains. During outbreaks, pneumonia and influenza hospitalization, and mortality rates increased 19% or less and 21% or less for A(H1N1), respectively; 28% or less and 51% or less for A(H3N2), and 19% or less and 16% or less for B strains. There were usually fewer than 25 laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1) infections with a particular strain in a season if there had been more than 25 infections with similar strains the previous season. For A(H3N2), the figure was 100, and for B it was 150.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Matches were excellent for A(H1N1) and good for A(H3N2) plus B strains. Hospitalization and mortality rates increased substantially during outbreaks, eg, estimated 1609 excess deaths during a widespread A(H3N2) outbreak. This study identifies relationships that provide some ability to predict the incidence of a particular influenza strain in a coming season based on the incidence of strains similar to it in the previous season.
authors.affiliation: Health Canada, Laboratory Centre for Disease Control, Ottawa, Ontario.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ellis
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Weber
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Cuff
authors.forename: S G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Mackenzie