title: Combined effects of prevention and quarantine on a breakout in SIR model.
abstract: Recent breakouts of several epidemics, such as flu pandemics, are serious threats to human health. The measures of protection against these epidemics are urgent issues in epidemiological studies. Prevention and quarantine are two major approaches against disease spreads. We here investigate the combined effects of these two measures of protection using the SIR model. We use site percolation for prevention and bond percolation for quarantine applying on a lattice model. We find a strong synergistic effect of prevention and quarantine under local interactions. A slight increase in protection measures is extremely effective in the initial disease spreads. Combination of the two measures is more effective than a single protection measure. Our results suggest that the protection policy against epidemics should account for both prevention and quarantine measures simultaneously.
authors.affiliation: Department of Systems Engineering, Shizuoka University, Hamamatsu Shizuoka 432-8561, Japan.
authors.forename: Fuminori
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Kato
authors.forename: Kei-Ichi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tainaka
authors.forename: Shogo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sone
authors.forename: Satoru
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Morita
authors.forename: Hiroyuki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Iida
authors.forename: Jin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yoshimura
mesh_terms: D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011790:Quarantine / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*