title: It is optimal to be optimistic about survival.
abstract: We investigate the optimal behaviour of an organism that is unable to obtain a reliable estimate of its mortality risk. In this case, natural selection will shape behaviour to be approximately optimal given the probability distribution of mortality risks in possible environments that the organism and its ancestors encountered. The mean of this distribution is the average mortality risk experienced by a randomly selected member of the species. We show that if an organism does not know the exact mortality risk, it should act as if the risk is less than the mean risk. This can be viewed as being optimistic. We argue that this effect is likely to be general.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TW, UK.
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: McNamara
authors.forename: Pete C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: Trimmer
authors.forename: Alasdair I
authors.initials: AI
authors.lastname: Houston
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001522:Behavior, Animal / Q000502:physiology*; D056084:Genetic Fitness; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D012307:Risk Factors; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012621:Seasons; D012641:Selection, Genetic; D013045:Species Specificity; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D035501:Uncertainty