title: The cost of carbon capture and storage for natural gas combined cycle power plants.
abstract: This paper examines the cost of CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. Existing studies employ a broad range of assumptions and lack a consistent costing method. This study takes a more systematic approach to analyze plants with an amine-based postcombustion CCS system with 90% CO(2) capture. We employ sensitivity analyses together with a probabilistic analysis to quantify costs for plants with and without CCS under uncertainty or variability in key parameters. Results for new baseload plants indicate a likely increase in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $20-32/MWh (constant 2007$) or $22-40/MWh in current dollars. A risk premium for plants with CCS increases these ranges to $23-39/MWh and $25-46/MWh, respectively. Based on current cost estimates, our analysis further shows that a policy to encourage CCS at new NGCC plants via an emission tax or carbon price requires (at 95% confidence) a price of at least $125/t CO(2) to ensure NGCC-CCS is cheaper than a plant without CCS. Higher costs are found for nonbaseload plants and CCS retrofits.
authors.affiliation: Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States. rubin@cmu.edu
authors.forename: Edward S
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Rubin
authors.forename: Haibo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhai
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000191:economics*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000191:economics*; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D018803:Models, Economic; D059206:Natural Gas / Q000191:economics*; D011210:Power Plants / Q000191:economics*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D059206:Natural Gas; D002245:Carbon Dioxide