title: The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  UK estimates of age related macular degeneration (AMD) occurrence vary.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To estimate prevalence, number and incidence of AMD by type in the UK population aged ≥50 years.
  
  
  METHODS
  Age-specific prevalence rates of AMD obtained from a Bayesian meta-analysis of AMD prevalence were applied to UK 2007-2009 population data. Incidence was estimated from modelled age-specific prevalence.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Overall prevalence of late AMD was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 3.3%), equivalent to 513 000 cases (95% CrI 363 000 to 699 000); estimated to increase to 679 000 cases by 2020. Prevalences were 4.8% aged ≥65 years, 12.2% aged ≥80 years. Geographical atrophy (GA) prevalence rates were 1.3% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.9%), 2.6% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.7%) and 6.7% (95% CrI 4.6% to 9.6%); neovascular AMD (NVAMD) 1.2% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.7%), 2.5% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.4%) and 6.3% (95% CrI 4.5% to 8.6%), respectively. The estimated number of prevalent cases of late AMD were 60% higher in women versus men (314 000 cases in women, 192 000 men). Annual incidence of late AMD, GA and NVAMD per 1000 women was 4.1 (95% CrI 2.4% to 6.8%), 2.4 (95% CrI 1.5% to 3.9%) and 2.3 (95% CrI 1.4% to 4.0%); in men 2.6 (95% CrI 1.5% to 4.4%), 1.7 (95% CrI 1.0% to 2.8%) and 1.4 (95% CrI 0.8% to 2.4%), respectively. 71 000 new cases of late AMD were estimated per year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These estimates will guide health and social service provision for those with late AMD and enable estimation of the cost of introducing new treatments.
authors.affiliation: Division of Population Health Sciences and Education, St George's, University of London, Cranmer Terrace, London SW17 0RE, UK. cowen@sgul.ac.uk
authors.forename: Christopher G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Owen
authors.forename: Zakariya
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Jarrar
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wormald
authors.forename: Derek G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Cook
authors.forename: Astrid E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Fletcher
authors.forename: Alicja R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Rudnicka
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005260:Female; D057092:Geographic Atrophy / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008268:Macular Degeneration / Q000145:classification / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D017678:Sex Distribution; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D057135:Wet Macular Degeneration / Q000453:epidemiology