title: REDD+ readiness implications for Sri Lanka in terms of reducing deforestation.
abstract: Any system to compensate countries for reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) requires a historical reference level against which future performance can be measured. Here we examine the possibilities Sri Lanka, a small forest country with limited data on forest carbon stocks, has to get ready for REDD+. We construct a historical reference level using available forest inventory data combined with updated 2008 and 2009 in situ carbon density data for Sri Lankan forests. Furthermore, we use a combination of qualitative and quantitative data to attribute the clearing of Sri Lankan forests in the latest years for which national forest inventory data are available, 1992-1996, to various proximate drivers and to estimate the opportunity cost of forest conservation. We estimate that baseline deforestation emissions in Sri Lanka amounted to 17MtCO(2)yr(-1) in the 1992-1996 period, but conclude that it is challenging for Sri Lanka to produce a robust and accurate reference level due to the lack of nationally based inventories. We find that the majority of forest clearing (87%) is due to small-scale, rainfed farming, with the two other major drivers being rice and tea cultivation. Further, Sri Lankan revenues from REDD+ participation could be substantial, but they are sensitive to REDD+ policy transaction cost, highly uncertain timber revenues, and particularly the carbon price paid for emission reductions. The latter needs to be higher than $5-10/tCO(2) if there are to be substantial incentives for Sri Lanka to participate in REDD+. There is, however, a large gap in the knowledge of deforestation drivers that needs to be filled if Sri Lanka is to formulate an effective policy response to forest degradation in REDD+. For successful REDD+ implementation in Sri Lanka to happen, technological assistance, readiness assistance, and continued political momentum are crucial.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Box 460, 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden. eskil@gvc.gu.se
authors.forename: Eskil
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Mattsson
authors.forename: U Martin
authors.initials: UM
authors.lastname: Persson
authors.forename: Madelene
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ostwald
authors.forename: S P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Nissanka
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D013188:Sri Lanka; D014197:Trees