title: Public health, climate, and economic impacts of desulfurizing jet fuel.
abstract: In jurisdictions including the US and the EU ground transportation and marine fuels have recently been required to contain lower concentrations of sulfur, which has resulted in reduced atmospheric SO(x) emissions. In contrast, the maximum sulfur content of aviation fuel has remained unchanged at 3000 ppm (although sulfur levels average 600 ppm in practice). We assess the costs and benefits of a potential ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) jet fuel standard ("ULSJ"). We estimate that global implementation of ULSJ will cost US$1-4bn per year and prevent 900-4000 air quality-related premature mortalities per year. Radiative forcing associated with reduction in atmospheric sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium loading is estimated at +3.4 mW/m(2) (equivalent to about 1/10th of the warming due to CO(2) emissions from aviation) and ULSJ increases life cycle CO(2) emissions by approximately 2%. The public health benefits are dominated by the reduction in cruise SO(x) emissions, so a key uncertainty is the atmospheric modeling of vertical transport of pollution from cruise altitudes to the ground. Comparisons of modeled and measured vertical profiles of CO, PAN, O(3), and (7)Be indicate that this uncertainty is low relative to uncertainties regarding the value of statistical life and the toxicity of fine particulate matter.
authors.affiliation: Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. sbarrett@mit.edu
authors.forename: Steven R H
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.forename: Steve H L
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Yim
authors.forename: Christopher K
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Gilmore
authors.forename: Lee T
authors.initials: LT
authors.lastname: Murray
authors.forename: Stephen R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Kuhn
authors.forename: Amos P K
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Tai
authors.forename: Robert M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Yantosca
authors.forename: Daewon W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Byun
authors.forename: Fong
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ngan
authors.forename: Xiangshang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Jonathan I
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: Levy
authors.forename: Akshay
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ashok
authors.forename: Jamin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Koo
authors.forename: Hsin Min
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.forename: Olivier
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Dessens
authors.forename: Sathya
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Balasubramanian
authors.forename: Gregg G
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Fleming
authors.forename: Matthew N
authors.initials: MN
authors.lastname: Pearlson
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wollersheim
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Malina
authors.forename: Saravanan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Arunachalam
authors.forename: Francis S
authors.initials: FS
authors.lastname: Binkowski
authors.forename: Eric M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Leibensperger
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Jacob
authors.forename: James I
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: Hileman
authors.forename: Ian A
authors.initials: IA
authors.lastname: Waitz
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards* / Q000633:toxicity; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000191:economics / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000517:prevention & control*; D057231:Climate Change; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D006801:Humans; D006838:Hydrocarbons / Q000592:standards*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards / Q000633:toxicity; D013455:Sulfur / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards*; D013461:Sulfur Oxides / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards*; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D006838:Hydrocarbons; D052638:Particulate Matter; D013461:Sulfur Oxides; D013455:Sulfur; C029662:JP5 jet fuel