title: Putting the brakes on a cycle: bottom-up effects damp cycle amplitude.
abstract: Pest population density oscillations have a profound effect on agroecosystem functioning, particularly when pests cycle with epidemic persistence. Here, we ask whether landscape-level manipulations can be used to restrict the cycle amplitude of the European corn borer moth [Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner)], an economically important maize pest. We analysed time series from Minnesota (1963-2009) and Wisconsin (1964-2009) to quantify the extent of regime change in the US Corn Belt where rates of transgenic Bt maize adoption varied. The introduction of Bt maize explained cycle damping when the adoption of the crop was high (Minnesota); oscillations were damped but continued to persist when Bt maize was used less intensely (Wisconsin). We conclude that host plant quality is key to understanding both epidemic persistence and the success of intervention strategies. In particular, the dichotomy in maize management between states is thought to limit the spatial autocorrelation of O. nubilalis.
authors.affiliation: Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK.
authors.forename: James R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.affiliation: Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USABiomathematics and Bioinformatics, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USAMinnesota Department of Agriculture, St Paul, MN 55107, USAWisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, WI 53718, USA.
authors.forename: Eric C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Burkness
authors.affiliation: Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USABiomathematics and Bioinformatics, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USAMinnesota Department of Agriculture, St Paul, MN 55107, USAWisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, WI 53718, USA.
authors.forename: Alice E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Milne
authors.affiliation: Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USABiomathematics and Bioinformatics, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USAMinnesota Department of Agriculture, St Paul, MN 55107, USAWisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, WI 53718, USA.
authors.forename: David W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Onstad
authors.affiliation: Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USABiomathematics and Bioinformatics, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USAMinnesota Department of Agriculture, St Paul, MN 55107, USAWisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, WI 53718, USA.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Abrahamson
authors.affiliation: Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USABiomathematics and Bioinformatics, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USAMinnesota Department of Agriculture, St Paul, MN 55107, USAWisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, WI 53718, USA.
authors.forename: Krista L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Hamilton
authors.affiliation: Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USABiomathematics and Bioinformatics, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UKDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USAMinnesota Department of Agriculture, St Paul, MN 55107, USAWisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, WI 53718, USA.
authors.forename: William D
authors.initials: WD
authors.lastname: Hutchison
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D000818:Animals; D001413:Bacillus thuringiensis; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D007814:Larva; D008910:Minnesota; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009036:Moths; D010572:Pest Control, Biological; D030821:Plants, Genetically Modified; D011156:Population Density; D014922:Wisconsin; D003313:Zea mays