title: Stationarity in moment closure and quasi-stationarity of the SIS model.
abstract: Previous epidemiological studies on SIS model have only considered the dynamic evolution of the mean value and the variance of the infected individuals. In this paper, through cumulant neglection, we use the dynamic equations of all the moments of infected individuals to develop a recursive method to compute the equilibria manifold of the moment closure ODE's. Specifically, we use the stable equilibria of the moment closure ODE's to obtain good approximations of the quasi-stationary states of the SIS model. This is a crucial step when the quasi-stationary distribution is highly skewed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, School of Technology and Management, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, Campus 2, 2411-901 Leiria, Portugal. jmmartins@ipleiria.pt
authors.forename: José
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Martins
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pinto
authors.forename: Nico
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Stollenwerk
mesh_terms: D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D013269:Stochastic Processes