title: Affective forecasting and self-rated symptoms of depression, anxiety, and hypomania: evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias.
abstract: Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias-the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.
authors.affiliation: Rochester Healthcare Decision-making Group and Department of Psychiatry, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY 14642, USA. michael_hoerger@urmc.rochester.edu
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hoerger
authors.forename: Stuart W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Quirk
authors.forename: Benjamin P
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: Chapman
authors.forename: Paul R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Duberstein
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001007:Anxiety / Q000523:psychology*; D001714:Bipolar Disorder / Q000523:psychology*; D003863:Depression / Q000523:psychology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006693:Holidays / Q000523:psychology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011582:Psychological Theory; D057566:Self Report; D013997:Time Factors