title: Epidemiological changes and financial consequences of hypertension in Latin America: implications for the health system and patients in Mexico.
abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the costs and financial consequences of epidemiological changes in hypertension in Mexico. The cost evaluation method to estimate costs was based on instrumentation techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes and expected cases of hypertension in 2010-2012, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Comparing the economic impact, from 2010 to 2012 there will be a 24% increase in financial requirements (p < 0.05). The total cost of hypertension in 2011 will be US$ 5,733,350,291, including US$ 2,718,280,941 in direct costs and US$ 3,015,069,350 in indirect costs. If the risk factors and various healthcare models remain unaltered in the institutions analyzed here, the financial consequences will have a major impact on users' pockets, followed by social security providers and public healthcare providers. The authors suggest a revision in the planning, organization, and allocation of resources, particularly programs for health promotion and prevention of hypertension.
authors.affiliation: Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Av. Universidad 655, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México. aarredon@insp.mx
authors.forename: Armando
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arredondo
authors.forename: Alexis
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zuñiga
mesh_terms: D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D005192:Family Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D007843:Latin America / Q000453:epidemiology; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D009313:National Health Programs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013997:Time Factors