title: Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda.
abstract: East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks.
authors.affiliation: Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado 80522, USA. iky4@cdc.gov
authors.forename: Katherine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: MacMillan
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Monaghan
authors.forename: Titus
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Apangu
authors.forename: Kevin S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Griffith
authors.forename: Paul S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Mead
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Acayo
authors.forename: Rogers
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Acidri
authors.forename: Sean M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.forename: Joseph Tendo
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Mpanga
authors.forename: Russel E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Enscore
authors.forename: Kenneth L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Gage
authors.forename: Rebecca J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Eisen
mesh_terms: D016022:Case-Control Studies; D002980:Climate; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology / Q000635:transmission*; D012307:Risk Factors; D014454:Uganda / Q000453:epidemiology; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000472:pathogenicity