title: [Methodological approaches to forecasting of disability dynamics in Ukraine].
abstract: Estimated the dynamics of indexes of primary disability of adult and able to work population for 2000-2009 on the whole on Ukraine and on administrative territories. For development of the methodological going near prognostication of disability used the methods of mathematical statistics: analysis of sentinel rows and regressive analysis. Indexes over of disability during ten years are brought as sentinel rows through the system of sentinel parameters and supervision; the models of linear trends are built, their adequacy and authenticity are tested, a prognosis is certain. Creation of the improved methods of analysis gives an opportunity to extract regions which it is necessary in, first of all, to study reasons and problems of increase of disability; to work out the purposeful measures of warning of her increase.
authors.forename: A V
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: Ipatov
authors.forename: Iu I
authors.initials: IuI
authors.lastname: Korobkin
authors.forename: I V
authors.initials: IV
authors.lastname: Drozdova
authors.forename: I Ia
authors.initials: IIa
authors.lastname: Khaniukova
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D014455:Ukraine; D014942:Workers' Compensation / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence