title: [Medical demography in Tunisia: current situation and perspectives].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Health human resources management is one of the important determinants of health care access equity.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To analyse the trend of Tunisian medical density during 2000-2009 and to predict its situation by 2024.
  
  
  METHODS
  Current medical density was calculated using Bar Council of Physicians of Tunisia database. Medical density was calculated and analysed for the period 2000-2009 then modelled by 2024 (estimate of needs and supply).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The active medical density raised by 36% during the period 2000-2009 with a higher increase for specialists. The proportion of non-active physicians rose from 4.6% to 15.2% in 2009. Increasing feminization of medical density and persistence of its regional disparities. By the year 2024, 217 physicians for 100,000 inhabitants would be required while the supply would correspond to 212/100 000 inhabitants.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  medical human resources have indeed globally improved. However, some lacks remain and adequate measures are required, based on a rational planning directed to satisfy the population needs and to allow health equity.
authors.affiliation: Faculte de Medecine de Tunis Universite, Tunis, El-Manar.
authors.forename: Hajer
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Aounallah-Skhiri
authors.forename: Heger
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lazaar-Ben Gobrane
authors.forename: Mohamed
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hsairi
authors.forename: Noureddine
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Achour
authors.forename: Bechir
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Zouari
authors.forename: Taoufik
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nacef
mesh_terms: D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D010820:Physicians / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D011156:Population Density; D013038:Specialization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014416:Tunisia / Q000453:epidemiology