title: Residual soil phosphorus as the missing piece in the global phosphorus crisis puzzle.
abstract: Phosphorus (P) is a finite and dwindling resource. Debate focuses on current production and use of phosphate rock rather than on the amounts of P required in the future to feed the world. We applied a two-pool soil P model to reproduce historical continental crop P uptake as a function of P inputs from fertilizer and manure and to estimate P requirements for crop production in 2050. The key feature is the consideration of the role of residual soil P in crop production. Model simulations closely fit historical P uptake for all continents. Cumulative inputs of P fertilizer and manure for the period 1965-2007 in Europe (1,115 kg . ha(-1) of cropland) grossly exceeded the cumulative P uptake by crops (360 kg ha(-1)). Since the 1980s in much of Europe, P application rates have been reduced, and uptake continues to increase due to the supply of plant-available P from residual soil P pool. We estimate that between 2008 and 2050 a global cumulative P application of 700-790 kg . ha(-1) of cropland (in total 1,070-1,200 teragrams P) is required to achieve crop production according to the various Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios [Alcamo J, Van Vuuren D, Cramer W (2006) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios, Vol 2, pp 279-354]. We estimate that average global P fertilizer use must change from the current 17.8 to 16.8-20.8 teragrams per year in 2050, which is up to 50% less than other estimates in the literature that ignore the role of residual soil P.
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands. sheida.sattari@wur.nl
authors.forename: Sheida Z
authors.initials: SZ
authors.lastname: Sattari
authors.forename: Alexander F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Bouwman
authors.forename: Ken E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Giller
authors.forename: Martin K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: van Ittersum
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends; D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development / Q000378:metabolism*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005060:Europe; D005308:Fertilizers / Q000032:analysis; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008372:Manure / Q000032:analysis; D008954:Models, Biological; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000032:analysis*; D012987:Soil / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D005308:Fertilizers; D008372:Manure; D012987:Soil; D010758:Phosphorus