title: Endogenously determined cycles: empirical evidence from livestock industries.
abstract: This paper applies the techniques of phase space reconstruction and recurrence  quantification analysis to investigate U.S. livestock cycles in relation to recent  literature on the business cycle. Results are presented for pork and cattle cycles,  providing empirical evidence that the cycles themselves have slowly diminished. By  comparing the evolution of production processes for the two livestock cycles we argue  that the major cause for this moderation is largely endogenous. The analysis suggests  that previous theoretical models relying solely on exogenous shocks to create cyclical  patterns do not fully capture changes in system dynamics. Specifically, the biological  constraint in livestock dynamics has become less significant while technology and information  are relatively more significant. Concurrently, vertical integration of the supply chain may  have improved inventory management, all resulting in a small, less deterministic, cyclical effect.
authors.affiliation: Agribusiness Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA. mpmccull@calpoly.edu
authors.forename: Michael P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: McCullough
authors.forename: Ray
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Huffaker
authors.forename: Thomas L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Marsh