title: Predicting psychotherapy benefit: a probabilistic and individualized approach.
abstract: We describe the development of the probability of treatment benefit (PTB) chart that incorporates, integrates, and extends more recent approaches to describing treatment effects, such as the Reliable Change Index (Jacobson & Truax, 1991) and normative comparisons (Kendall, Marrs-Garcia, Nath, & Sheldrick, 1999), by including parameters that are simultaneously probabilistic and individualized. To illustrate the PTB chart, data are taken from an effectiveness trial (N=139) of a modular treatment for disruptive behavior disorders. The results highlight both individual variability and the probabilistic nature of psychotherapy benefit. Finally, we discuss the utility of the PTB chart in terms of research, policy, and practice implications. Probability tables, such as the PTB chart, have the potential to be used as simple clinical tools to supplement traditional effect sizes and help patients make truly informed decisions about treatment participation.
authors.affiliation: University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Department of Psychiatry, 3811 O'Hara Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. lindhiemoj@upmc.edu
authors.forename: Oliver
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Lindhiem
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Kolko
authors.forename: Yu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Cheng
mesh_terms: D019958:Attention Deficit and Disruptive Behavior Disorders / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D002648:Child; D015928:Cognitive Behavioral Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D019955:Conduct Disorder / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D005196:Family Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010290:Parents; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D016896:Treatment Outcome