title: Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.
abstract: Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Écologie, Systématique et Évolution (ESE), Univ. Paris-Sud, UMR 8079 CNRS/Univ. Paris-Sud/AgroParisTech, Orsay Cedex, France. alissar.cheaib@u-psud.fr
authors.forename: Alissar
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cheaib
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Badeau
authors.forename: Julien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Boe
authors.forename: Isabelle
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Chuine
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Delire
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Dufrêne
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: François
authors.forename: Emmanuel S
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Gritti
authors.forename: Myriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Legay
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pagé
authors.forename: Wilfried
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thuiller
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Viovy
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Leadley
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004777:Environment; D029964:Fagus; D005602:France; D005843:Geography; D008954:Models, Biological; D028223:Pinus; D029963:Quercus; D014197:Trees; D035501:Uncertainty