title: Forecasting the effect of the Amethyst initiative on college drinking.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  A number of college presidents have endorsed the Amethyst Initiative, a call to consider lowering the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA). Our objective is to forecast the effect of the Amethyst Initiative on college drinking.
  
  
  METHODS
  A system model of college drinking simulates MLDA changes through (i) a decrease in heavy episodic drinking (HED) because of the lower likelihood of students drinking in unsupervised settings where they model irresponsible drinking (misperception), and (ii) an increase in overall drinking among currently underage students because of increased social availability of alcohol (wetness).
  
  
  RESULTS
  For the proportion of HEDs on campus, effects of large decreases in misperception of responsible drinking behavior were more than offset by modest increases in wetness.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For the effect of lowering the MLDA, it appears that increases in social availability of alcohol have a stronger impact on drinking behavior than decreases in misperceptions.
authors.affiliation: Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, California 90045, USA. tzpatrick@lmu.edu
authors.forename: Ben G
authors.initials: BG
authors.lastname: Fitzpatrick
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Scribner
authors.forename: Azmy S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Ackleh
authors.forename: Jawaid
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rasul
authors.forename: Geoffrey
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Jacquez
authors.forename: Neal
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Simonsen
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rommel
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000523:psychology; D000465:Algorithms; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003469:Culture; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007398:Interpersonal Relations; D017146:Models, Organizational; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012931:Social Environment; D013334:Students; D055815:Young Adult