title: Classical swine fever outbreak containment using antiviral supplementation: a potential alternative to emergency vaccination and stamping-out.
abstract: Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks may result in huge economic losses to countries with densely populated pig areas (DPLAs). The EU minimum control measures require depopulation of infected farms, movement restrictions, zoning and surveillance (EU Minimum strategy). Emergency vaccination is authorised for DPLAs although the EU Minimum strategy plus culling in a 1-km ring around infected premises is preferred. Nonetheless, vaccination in a 2-km ring has been found equally effective as 1-km ring culling using stochastic modelling. Alternatives control measures (e.g. antiviral agents, in particular small molecule inhibitors of the CSFV replication) are being explored. Hence, the present study was set up to simulate inter-herd CSFV spread when antiviral molecules are supplemented to pig feed in a 1-km ring around infected farms. The effectiveness of the antiviral strategy for containing CSF outbreaks was compared to six other control scenarios including the EU Minimum strategy, the EU preferred policy for DPLAs and the use of 2-km ring vaccination. The InterSpread Plus model was adapted to the 2006 Belgian pig population and outbreak simulations were performed with a fast spreading CSFV strain entering a DPLA in Belgium. Four out of the seven control strategies resulted in outbreaks that were controlled by the end of the simulation period (i.e. 365 days). The distributions of the number of infected herds and the duration of the predicted outbreaks for these four control strategies were not different. This is the first report investigating CSF outbreak containment using antiviral molecules. Although antiviral supplementation was not found to perform any better than some other conventional strategies, such as pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination, it might be worthwhile considering it further as additional tool in a response to CSF outbreaks.
authors.affiliation: Unit for Veterinary Epidemiology, Department of Obstetrics, Reproduction and Herd Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, 9820 Merelbeke, Belgium.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ribbens
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Goris
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Neyts
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dewulf
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D006691:Classical Swine Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D037901:Euthanasia, Animal; D032541:Mass Vaccination / Q000662:veterinary*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013552:Swine
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents