title: Incidence and risk factors for radiographic lumbar spondylosis and lower back pain in Japanese men and women: the ROAD study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the incidence of radiographic lumbar spondylosis (LS)and lower back pain, and their risk factors in Japan using a large-scale population from the nationwide cohort Research on Osteoarthritis/osteoporosis Against Disability (ROAD) Study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants in the ROAD study who had been recruited between 2005 and 2007 were followed up with lumbar spine radiography for 3 years. A total of 2,282 paired radiographs (75% of the original sample) were scored using Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) grades, and the incidence and progression rate of radiographic LS was analyzed. The incidence of lower back pain was also examined. In addition, associations between risk factors and incident and progressive radiographic LS as well as incident lower back pain were tested.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Given a 3.3-year follow-up, the incidence of KL≥2 radiographic LS was 50.0% and 34.4% (15.3% and 10.5% per year), while that of KL≥3 LS was 15.3% and 23.7% (4.6% and 7.2% per year) in men and women, respectively. The progression rate of LS was 20.5% and 27.4% (6.2% and 8.3% per year) in men and in women, respectively. In addition, the incidence of lower back pain was 28.3% and 31.2% (8.6% and 9.5% per year) in men and women. Lower back pain was not significantly associated with incident radiographic LS, while a more severe KL grade at baseline was associated with incident lower back pain.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The present longitudinal study revealed a high incidence of radiographic LS in Japan.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Motor System Medicine, 22nd Century Medical & Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. murakis-ort@h.u-tokyo.ac.jp
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Muraki
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Akune
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Oka
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ishimoto
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nagata
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yoshida
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tokimura
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nakamura
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kawaguchi
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Yoshimura
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D008159:Lumbar Vertebrae / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011859:Radiography; D012307:Risk Factors; D055009:Spondylosis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D055815:Young Adult