title: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in young Czech children stopped rising.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim was to assess trends in incidence of pediatric type 1 diabetes (T1D) using data recorded by the population-based Czech Childhood Diabetes Register over 1989-2009.
  
  
  METHODS
  New cases of childhood-onset T1D aged 0-14.9 yr were recorded using the EURODIAB protocol by two independent sources with the combined estimated completeness of 98.6%. The incidence was modeled by Poisson regression, and the effects of age and calendar time on incidence were assessed using piecewise linear functions.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 5155 cases was ascertained over 1989-2009 from an average pediatric population of 1.76 million. Two points of change in the incidence trend were identified by the modeling: in 1995 the incidence accelerated, while in 2001 the growth in incidence significantly slowed down in all ages up to 10 yr. In the youngest age category, 0-4 yr at onset, the rapid average annual rise of 15% over 1996-2001 suddenly changed into stagnation over 2002-2009.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our data contribute to the notion that long- and intermediate-term predictions from the past incidence developments of incidence are difficult, as abrupt changes in the trend can occur. Caution should be exercised against too far-reaching incidence predictions, even if the population has experienced a previous history of a very fast rise in T1D incidence.
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics, 2nd Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic. Ondrej.Cinek@Lfmotol.cuni.cz
authors.forename: Ondrej
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Cinek
authors.forename: Michal
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kulich
authors.forename: Zdenek
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Sumnik
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D018153:Czech Republic / Q000453:epidemiology; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D012042:Registries