title: A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals: risk of rabies reintroduction to the United kingdom.
abstract: In 2004, the European Union (EU) implemented a pet movement policy (referred to here as the EUPMP) under EU regulation 998/2003. The United Kingdom (UK) was granted a temporary derogation from the policy until December 2011 and instead has in place its own Pet Movement Policy (Pet Travel Scheme (PETS)). A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was developed to estimate the risk of rabies introduction to the UK under both schemes to quantify any change in the risk of rabies introduction should the UK harmonize with the EU policy. Assuming 100 % compliance with the regulations, moving to the EUPMP was predicted to increase the annual risk of rabies introduction to the UK by approximately 60-fold, from 7.79 × 10(-5) (5.90 × 10(-5), 1.06 × 10(-4)) under the current scheme to 4.79 × 10(-3) (4.05 × 10(-3), 5.65 × 10(-3)) under the EUPMP. This corresponds to a decrease from 13,272 (9,408, 16,940) to 211 (177, 247) years between rabies introductions. The risks associated with both the schemes were predicted to increase when less than 100 % compliance was assumed, with the current scheme of PETS and quarantine being shown to be particularly sensitive to noncompliance. The results of this risk assessment, along with other evidence, formed a scientific evidence base to inform policy decision with respect to companion animal movement.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK. Ashley.Goddard@ahvla.gsi.gov.uk
authors.forename: A D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Goddard
authors.forename: N M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Donaldson
authors.forename: D L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Horton
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kosmider
authors.forename: L A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Kelly
authors.forename: A R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Sayers
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Breed
authors.forename: C M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Freuling
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.forename: S E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Shaw
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hallgren
authors.forename: A R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Fooks
authors.forename: E L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Snary
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002371:Cat Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D002415:Cats; D004283:Dog Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D004285:Dogs; D005062:European Union; D005289:Ferrets; D006801:Humans; D057805:Pets / Q000821:virology*; D011336:Probability; D011640:Public Policy; D011790:Quarantine / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D011818:Rabies / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission* / Q000662:veterinary*; D011819:Rabies Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014195:Travel / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D006113:United Kingdom; D014611:Vaccination / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000662:veterinary
chemical_list: D011819:Rabies Vaccines