title: Six developmental trajectories characterize children with autism.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The goal of this study was to describe the typical longitudinal developmental trajectories of social and communication functioning in children with autism and to determine the correlates of these trajectories.
  
  
  METHODS
  Children with autism who were born in California from 1992 through 2001 and enrolled with the California Department of Developmental Services were identified. Subjects with <4 evaluations present in the database were excluded, resulting in a sample of 6975 children aged 2 to 14 years. Score sequences were constructed based on 9 evaluative items for social, communication, and repetitive behavior functioning. Typical trajectories were identified by using group-based latent trajectory modeling, and multinomial logistic regression models were used to determine the odds of classification within each trajectory varied by individual and family-level factors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Six typical patterns of social, communication, and repetitive behavior functioning were identified. These trajectories displayed significant heterogeneity in developmental pathways, and children whose symptoms were least severe at first diagnosis tended to improve more rapidly than those severely affected. One group of ∼10% of children experienced rapid gains, moving from severely affected to high functioning. Socioeconomic factors were correlated with trajectory outcomes; children with non-Hispanic, white, well-educated mothers were more likely to be high functioning, and minority children with less-educated mothers or intellectual disabilities were very unlikely to experience rapid gains.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Children with autism have heterogeneous developmental pathways. One group of children evidenced remarkable developmental change over time. Understanding what drives these outcomes is thus critical.
authors.affiliation: Paul F. Lazarsfeld Center for the Social Sciences, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA.
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fountain
authors.forename: Alix S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Winter
authors.forename: Peter S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Bearman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002140:California; D002648:Child; D002659:Child Development Disorders, Pervasive / Q000145:classification / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003142:Communication; D002658:Developmental Disabilities / Q000145:classification / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D005260:Female; D006630:Hispanic or Latino / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007360:Intelligence; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012919:Social Behavior; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013239:Stereotyped Behavior; D044465:White People / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data