title: Climate variations and salmonellosis in northwest Russia: a time-series analysis.
abstract: Associations between monthly counts of all laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis in Arkhangelsk, northern Russia, from 1992 to 2008 and climatic variables with lags 0-2 were studied by three different models. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature with a lag of 1 month across the whole range of temperatures. An increase of 1 °C was associated with a 2·04% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·25-3·84], 1·84% (95% CI 0·06-3·63) and 2·32% (95% CI 0·38-4·27) increase in different models. Only one of the three models suggested an increase in the number of cases, by 0·24% (95% CI 0·02-0·46) with an increase in precipitation by 1 mm in the same month. Higher temperatures were associated with higher monthly counts of salmonellosis while the association with precipitation was less certain. The results may have implications for the future patterns of enteric infections in northern areas related to climate change.
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Grjibovski
authors.affiliation: Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Arkhangelsk Region, Arkhangelsk, Russia.
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Bushueva
authors.affiliation: Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Arkhangelsk Region, Arkhangelsk, Russia.
authors.forename: V P
authors.initials: VP
authors.lastname: Boltenkov
authors.affiliation: Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Arkhangelsk Region, Arkhangelsk, Russia.
authors.forename: R V
authors.initials: RV
authors.lastname: Buzinov
authors.affiliation: Institute of Polar Medicine, Northern State Medical University, Arkhangelsk, Russia.
authors.forename: G N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Degteva
authors.affiliation: WHO Office in the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia.
authors.forename: E D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Yurasova
authors.affiliation: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome Office, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nurse
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D012480:Salmonella Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors