title: From neural responses to population behavior: neural focus group predicts population-level media effects.
abstract: Can neural responses of a small group of individuals predict the behavior of large-scale populations? In this investigation, brain activations were recorded while smokers viewed three different television campaigns promoting the National Cancer Institute's telephone hotline to help smokers quit (1-800-QUIT-NOW). The smokers also provided self-report predictions of the campaigns' relative effectiveness. Population measures of the success of each campaign were computed by comparing call volume to 1-800-QUIT-NOW in the month before and the month after the launch of each campaign. This approach allowed us to directly compare the predictive value of self-reports with neural predictors of message effectiveness. Neural activity in a medial prefrontal region of interest, previously associated with individual behavior change, predicted the population response, whereas self-report judgments did not. This finding suggests a novel way of connecting neural signals to population responses that has not been previously demonstrated and provides information that may be difficult to obtain otherwise.
authors.affiliation: University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48104, USA. ebfalk@umich.edu
authors.forename: Emily B
authors.initials: EB
authors.lastname: Falk
authors.forename: Elliot T
authors.initials: ET
authors.lastname: Berkman
authors.forename: Matthew D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Lieberman
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D017144:Focus Groups; D059907:Functional Neuroimaging; D058015:Health Communication / Q000379:methods; D006293:Health Promotion / Q000379:methods*; D015277:Hotlines; D006801:Humans; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D008389:Marketing of Health Services / Q000379:methods*; D008402:Mass Media; D008875:Middle Aged; D054547:National Cancer Institute (U.S.); D017397:Prefrontal Cortex / Q000378:metabolism*; D012907:Smoking; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000523:psychology*; D013690:Television; D014481:United States