title: [An approach for integrated assessment of eco-risk in coastal waters based on catastrophe theory: taking Luoyuan Bay as a case].
abstract: Based on catastrophe theory, this paper established an index system and catastrophe progression model for the integrated assessment of eco-risk in coastal waters, including three risk types of "eutrophication-heavy metal pollution-organic pollution" and three dimensions of "water-sediment-organism". According to the related quality standards, a four-level evaluation standard of eco-risk (zero, low, medium, and high) was proposed, and by using the monitoring data of 2007 and 2009, an integrated assessment of the eco-risk in Luoyuan Bay was conducted. In 2007-2009, the spatial variation of the eco-risk in Luoyuan Bay had a downward trend from bayhead to baymouth, and the risk level in 2009 was overall lower than that in 2007. The key factor of the eco-risk in the Bay was eutrophication. The approach established in this paper could identify the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of eco-risk in coastal waters, and better reflect the key eco-risk factor, providing a basic approach for effective forecasting and early warning of eco-risk in coastal waters.
authors.affiliation: Third Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China. kliangchen@gmail.com
authors.forename: Ke-Liang
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Ya-Lou
authors.initials: YL
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.forename: Zhi-Lan
authors.initials: ZL
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.forename: Jin-Keng
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Yu-Rong
authors.initials: YR
authors.lastname: Ouyang
authors.forename: Jin-Long
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Jiang
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005068:Eutrophication; D005544:Forecasting; D006262:Health; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012623:Seawater; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical