title: Using models to predict the future: what to do when the data run out?
abstract: Although clinical trials often provide "best evidence" comparing the effectiveness of alternative management strategies, such evidence can be limited in duration or in the results reported, causing clinicians and policy analysts to wonder "what if?" Models of the clinical prognosis-often spanning patients' lifetimes (the "long haul")-are perhaps weaker evidence, but can help answer questions about the management of individual patients and place that best evidence into the context of clinical reality.
authors.affiliation: Division of Clinical Decision Making, Department of Medicine, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. spauker@tuftsmedicalcenter.org
authors.forename: S G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Pauker
authors.forename: F R
authors.initials: FR
authors.lastname: Goss
mesh_terms: D015906:Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary; D001189:Aryl Hydrocarbon Hydroxylases / Q000235:genetics*; D000077144:Clopidogrel; D065731:Cytochrome P-450 CYP2C19; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010879:Piperazines / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D010975:Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D000068799:Prasugrel Hydrochloride; D013876:Thiophenes / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D013988:Ticlopidine / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000627:therapeutic use
chemical_list: D010879:Piperazines; D010975:Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors; D013876:Thiophenes; D000077144:Clopidogrel; D001189:Aryl Hydrocarbon Hydroxylases; C045793:CYP2C19 protein, human; D065731:Cytochrome P-450 CYP2C19; D000068799:Prasugrel Hydrochloride; D013988:Ticlopidine