title: Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health Sciences, Penn State Hershey College of Medicine, Academic Support Bldg, Ste 2200, A210, 600 Centerview Dr, ASB 2200, Hershey, PA 17033, USA. chuntao.wu@psu.edu
authors.forename: Chuntao
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Fabian T
authors.initials: FT
authors.lastname: Camacho
authors.forename: Andrew S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Wechsler
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lahey
authors.forename: Alfred T
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Culliford
authors.forename: Desmond
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Jordan
authors.forename: Jeffrey P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Gold
authors.forename: Robert S D
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Higgins
authors.forename: Craig R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Edward L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Hannan
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000401:mortality*; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D016208:Databases, Factual / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors