title: The prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with primary pontine hemorrhage: a scoring system comparison.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Owing to its low morbidity but high mortality, no accurate scoring system focuses on primary pontine hemorrhage (PPH) has been established. We aim to compare the performances of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II with the ICH score in predicting the 30-day mortality in patients with PPH.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients admitted with a diagnosis of PPH to a university-affiliated hospital in southern China from May 2000 to June 2011. Data related to patient demographics and that necessary to calculate APACHE II, SAPS II, and ICH score were recorded. Performances of these scoring systems were presented as calibration and discrimination, which were measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, respectively.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among 75 patients with PPH finally included, 31 (41.3%) died within 30 days. SAPS II (χ(2) = 6.57, P = 0.682) had the best calibration, followed by APACHE II (χ(2) = 8.06, P = 0.428) and ICH score (χ(2) = 4.94, P = 0.176). Furthermore, in terms of area under the ROC curve, APACHE II (0.919) was more discriminative than SAPS II (0.890) and ICH score (0.844).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PPH, SAPS II has the best calibration, while APACHE II has the highest discrimination. The ICH score, which is easier and simpler to calculate, should be modified for PPH.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: K-B
authors.initials: KB
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Ji
authors.forename: Y-M
authors.initials: YM
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: S-N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Z-Z
authors.initials: ZZ
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.forename: S-Y
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Pan
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D020300:Intracranial Hemorrhages / Q000145:classification / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011149:Pons / Q000473:pathology*; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index