title: An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China.
abstract: In order to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on submicron particle (ultrafine particle (UFP) and particulate matter 1.0 (PM(1.0))) concentrations under busy traffic conditions, a model study was conducted in Hangzhou, a city with a rapid increase of on-road vehicle fleet in China. A statistical model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), was used for this purpose. ARIMA results indicated that barometric pressure and wind velocity were anti-correlated and temperature and relative humidity were positively correlated with UFP number concentrations and PM(1.0) mass concentrations (p<0.05). These data suggest that meteorological factors are significant predictors in forecasting roadside atmospheric concentrations of submicron particles. The findings provide baseline information on the potential effect of meteorological factors on UFP and PM(1.0) levels on a busy viaduct with heavy traffic most of the day. This study also provides a framework that may be applied in future studies, with large scale time series data, to predict the impact of meteorological factors on submicron particle concentrations in fast-developing cities, in China.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Australia. l.jian@curtin.edu.au
authors.forename: Le
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jian
authors.forename: Yun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.forename: Yi-Ping
authors.initials: YP
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.forename: Mei-Bian
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Dean
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bertolatti
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008956:Models, Chemical; D010316:Particle Size; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter; D001335:Vehicle Emissions