title: Risk as feelings in the effect of patient outcomes on physicians' future treatment decisions: a randomized trial and manipulation validation.
abstract: The present study tested predictions derived from the Risk as Feelings hypothesis about the effects of prior patients' negative treatment outcomes on physicians' subsequent treatment decisions. Two experiments at The University of Chicago, U.S.A., utilized a computer simulation of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patient with enhanced realism to present participants with one of three experimental conditions: AAA rupture causing a watchful waiting death (WWD), perioperative death (PD), or a successful operation (SO), as well as the statistical treatment guidelines for AAA. Experiment 1 tested effects of these simulated outcomes on (n = 76) laboratory participants' (university student sample) self-reported emotions, and their ratings of valence and arousal of the AAA rupture simulation and other emotion-inducing picture stimuli. Experiment 2 tested two hypotheses: 1) that experiencing a patient WWD in the practice trial's experimental condition would lead physicians to choose surgery earlier, and 2) experiencing a patient PD would lead physicians to choose surgery later with the next patient. Experiment 2 presented (n = 132) physicians (surgeons and geriatricians) with the same experimental manipulation and a second simulated AAA patient. Physicians then chose to either go to surgery or continue watchful waiting. The results of Experiment 1 demonstrated that the WWD experimental condition significantly increased anxiety, and was rated similarly to other negative and arousing pictures. The results of Experiment 2 demonstrated that, after controlling for demographics, baseline anxiety, intolerance for uncertainty, risk attitudes, and the influence of simulation characteristics, the WWD experimental condition significantly expedited decisions to choose surgery for the next patient. The results support the Risk as Feelings hypothesis on physicians' treatment decisions in a realistic AAA patient computer simulation. Bad outcomes affected emotions and decisions, even with statistical AAA rupture risk guidance present. These results suggest that bad patient outcomes cause physicians to experience anxiety and regret that influences their subsequent treatment decision-making for the next patient.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Section of Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine, University of Chicago MC6098, 5841 S. Maryland Ave., Chicago, IL 60637, USA. jhemmeri@medicine.bsd.uchicago.edu
authors.forename: Joshua A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hemmerich
authors.forename: Arthur S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Elstein
authors.forename: Margaret L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Schwarze
authors.forename: Elizabeth Ghini
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Moliski
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Dale
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D001291:Attitude of Health Personnel; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003657:Decision Making; D004644:Emotions; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010820:Physicians / Q000523:psychology*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012737:Sex Factors