title: Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data.
abstract: Carrying out statistical analysis over an extensive dataset of human plague reports in Chinese villages from 1772 to 1964, we identified plague endemic territories in China (i.e., plague foci). Analyses rely on (i) a clustering method that groups time series based on their time-frequency resemblances and (ii) an ecological niche model that helps identify plague suitable territories characterized by value ranges for a set of predefined environmental variables. Results from both statistical tools indicate the existence of two disconnected plague territories corresponding to Northern and Southern China. Altogether, at least four well defined independent foci are identified. Their contours compare favorably with field observations. Potential and limitations of inferring plague foci and dynamics using epidemiological data is discussed.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology,  University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo,  Norway.
authors.forename: Tamara
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ben-Ari
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Neerinckx
authors.forename: Lydiane
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Agier
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Zhibin
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Xiye
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Shuchun
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Qiyong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Nils C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D017753:Ecosystem; D058872:Epidemics / Q000266:history*; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history*; D058067:Wavelet Analysis; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000302:isolation & purification*