title: [Establishment of a nomogram for predicting positive repeat prostate biopsy in Chinese men].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of prostate cancer at transrectal ultrasound-guided repeat prostate biopsy in Chinese men.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed repeat biopsy for 170 patients with benign prostate diseases diagnosed on the first biopsy, and analyzed the correlation of positive repeat biopsy with age, prostate volume, PSA, free-to-total PSA (f-PSA/t-PSA), PSA velocity, PSA density, results of digital rectal examination (DRE) and previous histology. We entered the variables stepwise into logistic regression models, and established a nomogram for the risk score on the probability of positive repeat biopsy, whose predictive value was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Prostate cancer was detected in 31.8% of the repeat biopsies (54/170). The most accurate predictive nomogram comprised age, PSA, f-PSA/t-PSA, PSA velocity, prostate volume, DRE and previous prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) findings. The nomogram exhibited a high predictive value, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 82.4%, significantly greater than that of the prediction based on PSA density (AUC: 66.9%), prostate volume (AUC: 72.6%), PSA velocity (AUC: 69.6%), f-PSA/t-PSA (AUC: 69.3%), or DRE (AUC: 58.5% ) alone.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The nomogram is an accurate multi-variable predicting tool to determine the probability of positive repeat prostate biopsy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ultrasound, General Hospital of Chinese PLA, Beijing 100853, China. qiuyang0925@gmail.com
authors.forename: Qiu-Yang
authors.initials: QY
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Yan-Mi
authors.initials: YM
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Fei
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: En-Hui
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: He
authors.forename: Yun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019540:Area Under Curve; D044466:Asian People; D001707:Biopsy, Needle / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011467:Prostate / Q000473:pathology*; D011469:Prostatic Diseases / Q000473:pathology; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D012372:ROC Curve; D014463:Ultrasonography