title: Refining definitions of periodontal disease and caries for prediction models of incident tooth loss.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the suitability of different definitions of caries and periodontitis for inclusion in tooth loss prediction models.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) is a population-based cohort study conducted in 1997-2001 (SHIP-0) and 2002-2006 (SHIP-1). This sample comprised 2,780 subjects aged 20-81 years with complete information on dental and periodontal status [DMFS status, clinical attachment loss (CAL) and probing depth (PD)]. Analyses on five-year tooth loss were limited to half-mouth data.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The predictive value of tested definitions was markedly age- and gender-dependent: in 20-39-aged men, the number of decayed or filled surfaces best predicted the number of lost teeth, whereas in young women CAL≥4 mm performed best. In older subjects, periodontal definitions were superior to caries definitions: mean CAL performed best in 40-59-year olds, whereas AL- or PD-related definitions predicted best in 60-81-year olds. On tooth level, mean CAL was the superior definition to assess 5-year incident tooth loss in all strata except for young men.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Caries parameters best predicted incident tooth loss in men aged 20-39 years; in the intermediate and oldest age group and in young women, mean AL was most informative. Therefore, prediction models need to be developed for different age and gender groups.
authors.affiliation: Unit of Periodontology, Department of Restorative Dentistry, Periodontology, and Endodontology, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany. houshman@uni-greifswald.de
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Houshmand
authors.forename: Birte
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Holtfreter
authors.forename: Marie Henrike
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Berg
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Schwahn
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Meisel
authors.forename: Reiner
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Biffar
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kindler
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kocher
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003793:Dental Restoration, Permanent / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017622:Periodontal Attachment Loss / Q000453:epidemiology; D010510:Periodontal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D010512:Periodontal Index; D010514:Periodontal Pocket / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D016388:Tooth Loss / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult