title: The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.
authors.affiliation: Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27705, USA.
authors.forename: Helen
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hoenig
authors.forename: Patricia
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Griffiths
authors.forename: Shanti
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ganesh
authors.forename: Kevin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Caves
authors.forename: Frances
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Harris
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D014728:Veterans / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014910:Wheelchairs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends