title: Random dynamical models from time series.
abstract: In this work we formulate a consistent Bayesian approach to modeling stochastic (random) dynamical systems by time series and implement it by means of artificial neural networks. The feasibility of this approach for both creating models adequately reproducing the observed stationary regime of system evolution, and predicting changes in qualitative behavior of a weakly nonautonomous stochastic system, is demonstrated on model examples. In particular, a successful prognosis of stochastic system behavior as compared to the observed one is illustrated on model examples, including discrete maps disturbed by non-Gaussian and nonuniform noise and a flow system with Langevin force.
authors.affiliation: Indiana University - Purdue University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. ymolkov@iupui.edu
authors.forename: Y I
authors.initials: YI
authors.lastname: Molkov
authors.forename: E M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Loskutov
authors.forename: D N
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Mukhin
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Feigin