[Model to estimate epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico].
OBJECTIVE
Apply a mathematical model to estimate the epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico during the stages of application and suspension of measures to mitigate the epidemic.


METHODS
The effective reproductive number (R) for each state of Mexico during and after the application of social distancing measures was estimated by the SIR model (susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals) based on data published by the Ministry of Health of Mexico.


RESULTS
From the beginning of the outbreak until suspension of school activities (28 April-13 May 2009), the national median of R was 1.13. In the following period (14 May-17 July 2009) the national median of R decreased to 1.01.


CONCLUSIONS
It was demonstrated that several epidemic scenarios occurred at the national level. It is suggested that heterogeneous patterns at the state level be taken into account in decision-making on the adoption of measures to mitigate influenza epidemics.
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, México. robles-e@correo.insp.mx
Estela
E
Navarro-Robles
Louis
L
Martínez-Matsushita
Rubén
R
López-Molina
Jimena
J
Fritz-Hernández
Bárbara Aida
BA
Flores-Aldana
Juan Carlos
JC
Mendoza-Pérez
D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical