Predicting reoffense for community-based sexual offenders: an analysis of 30 years of data.
This study contributes to the area of risk prediction by exploring whether the Static-99R is useful for predicting reoffense in community-based samples, and for noncontact offenders with and without identified victims. A total of 744 participants drawn from an outpatient sex offender treatment program in a large metropolitan area were followed for a period of up to 30 years. Multiple Cox Regressions were run; covariates included length of treatment, status in treatment, Static-99R items, and number of technical probation violations. Overall, reoffending was an infrequent occurrence in this sample regardless of how it was defined, with sexual reoffenses identified in 13% of the sample and any criminal reoffense identified in 20% of the sample. Consistent with previous research, the Static-99R was a better predictor of sex-related reoffenses than of nonsexual reoffenses. However, in no case were more than a couple of the items significantly related to reoffending and these items differed depending on reoffense definition.
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55454, USA. swin0024@umn.edu
Rebecca E Swinburne
RE
Romine
Michael H
MH
Miner
Dominic
D
Poulin
S Margretta
SM
Dwyer
Dianne
D
Berg
D000328:Adult; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D003156:Community Mental Health Services / Q000458:organization & administration; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055815:Young Adult