Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator.
This paper describes a modeling framework for estimating the acute effects of personal exposure to ambient air pollution in a time series design. First, a spatial hierarchical model is used to relate Census tract-level daily ambient concentrations and simulated exposures for a subset of the study period. The complete exposure time series is then imputed for risk estimation. Modeling exposure via a statistical model reduces the computational burden associated with simulating personal exposures considerably. This allows us to consider personal exposures at a finer spatial resolution to improve exposure assessment and for a longer study period. The proposed approach is applied to an analysis of fine particulate matter of <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality in the New York City metropolitan area during the period 2001-2005. Personal PM(2.5) exposures were simulated from the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation. Accounting for exposure uncertainty, the authors estimated a 2.32% (95% posterior interval: 0.68, 3.94) increase in mortality per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in personal exposure to PM(2.5) from outdoor sources on the previous day. The corresponding estimates per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM(2.5) ambient concentration was 1.13% (95% confidence interval: 0.27, 2.00). The risks of mortality associated with PM(2.5) were also higher during the summer months.
Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road. NE. Mailstop: 1518-002-3AA, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Howard H
HH
Chang
Montserrat
M
Fuentes
H Christopher
HC
Frey
D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality; D009519:New York City / Q000453:epidemiology; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000009:adverse effects; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons; D013269:Stochastic Processes
D052638:Particulate Matter