Generic indicators for loss of resilience before a tipping point leading to population collapse.
Theory predicts that the approach of catastrophic thresholds in natural systems (e.g., ecosystems, the climate) may result in an increasingly slow recovery from small perturbations, a phenomenon called critical slowing down. We used replicate laboratory populations of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae for direct observation of critical slowing down before population collapse. We mapped the bifurcation diagram experimentally and found that the populations became more vulnerable to disturbance closer to the tipping point. Fluctuations of population density increased in size and duration near the tipping point, in agreement with the theory. Our results suggest that indicators of critical slowing down can provide advance warning of catastrophic thresholds and loss of resilience in a variety of dynamical systems.
Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Lei
L
Dai
Daan
D
Vorselen
Kirill S
KS
Korolev
Jeff
J
Gore
D017753:Ecosystem; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012441:Saccharomyces cerevisiae / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000378:metabolism; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013395:Sucrose / Q000378:metabolism
D013395:Sucrose