Modelling the epidemiological impact of scaling up HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment in China.
BACKGROUND
The HIV epidemic in China has been increasing. In response, a 5-year action plan in China has prioritised the scale-up of HIV testing and treatment.


METHODS
We use a mathematical model to reproduce HIV epidemic trends in China and to forecast epidemic trends according to current conditions or increases in the rate of HIV testing or roll-out of antiretroviral therapy.


RESULTS
We show that the epidemic in China could be expected to experience a 2.5-fold expansion over the next 5 years such that ~1.8 million people will be infected with HIV in China by 2015. However, increasing testing and treatment rates can have substantial epidemiological benefits. For example, a four-fold increase in testing rates may avert more than 42000 HIV infections and 11000 deaths over the next 5 years. A 10-fold increase in the treatment rate could decrease the number of HIV-related deaths by 58% and the number of new infections by one-quarter by 2015.


CONCLUSIONS
Increasing HIV testing and treatment are important public health strategies for prevention.
The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Darlinghurst, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia.
Lei
L
Zhang
Richard T
RT
Gray
David P
DP
Wilson
D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence / Q000639:trends*; D006293:Health Promotion / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000639:trends*; D006297:Health Services Accessibility / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance; D047568:Unsafe Sex / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents