Exploring short-term responses to changes in the control strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis.
Chlamydia has a significant impact on public health provision in the developed world. Using pair approximation equations we investigate the efficacy of control programmes for chlamydia on short time scales that are relevant to policy makers. We use output from the model to estimate critical measures, namely, prevalence, incidence, and positivity in those screened and their partners. We combine these measures with a costing tool to estimate the economic impact of different public health strategies. Increasing screening coverage significantly increases the annual programme costs whereas an increase in tracing efficiency initially increases annual costs but over time reduces costs below baseline, with tracing accounting for around 10% of intervention costs. We found that partner positivity is insensitive to changes in prevalence due to screening, remaining at around 33%. Whether increases occur in screening or tracing levels, the cost per treated infection increases from the baseline because of reduced prevalence.
Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK. j.p.clarke@bath.ac.uk
James
J
Clarke
K A Jane
KA
White
Katy
K
Turner
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D002690:Chlamydia Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002692:Chlamydia trachomatis / Q000378:metabolism*; D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D055552:Infectious Disease Medicine / Q000379:methods; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000191:economics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity