Rate and risk predictors for development of self-reported type-2 diabetes mellitus over a 5-year period: the SHIELD study.
OBJECTIVE
This investigation determined the proportion of adults newly diagnosed as having type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and ascertained risk predictors for development of self-reported T2DM.


METHODS
The US Study to Help Improve Early evaluation and management of risk factors Leading to Diabetes (SHIELD) survey was a 5-year longitudinal study of adults with and without diabetes mellitus. Adults completed a baseline health questionnaire in 2004 and ≥1 annual follow-up survey through 2009. Respondents with no self-reported diagnosis of diabetes at baseline were followed to measure rate of and assess risk factors for development of T2DM over 5 years.


RESULTS
Among 8582 respondents without diabetes at baseline, 622 (7.2%) reported a diagnosis of T2DM over the subsequent 5 years. Increasing age, family history of T2DM, body mass index ≥30 kg/m(2), abdominal obesity, excessive thirst, asthma, gestational diabetes and 'high blood sugar without diabetes' significantly increased the risk of developing T2DM (p < 0.05 for each). Good to excellent health status and self-reported circulatory problems decreased the risk (p < 0.05 for each).


CONCLUSIONS
Among this representative US adult population, the rate of developing T2DM was 7.2% over 5 years. Predictors of T2DM diagnosis identified in this analysis were readily obtainable via self-report.
Endocrine and Metabolic Associates, Rockville, MD, USA.
H W
HW
Rodbard
H E
HE
Bays
J R
JR
Gavin
A J
AJ
Green
D D
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Bazata
S J
SJ
Lewis
K M
KM
Fox
M L
ML
Reed
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Grandy
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D057566:Self Report; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States