Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere.
Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.
Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA. barnosky@berkeley.edu
Anthony D
AD
Barnosky
Elizabeth A
EA
Hadly
Jordi
J
Bascompte
Eric L
EL
Berlow
James H
JH
Brown
Mikael
M
Fortelius
Wayne M
WM
Getz
John
J
Harte
Alan
A
Hastings
Pablo A
PA
Marquet
Neo D
ND
Martinez
Arne
A
Mooers
Peter
P
Roopnarine
Geerat
G
Vermeij
John W
JW
Williams
Rosemary
R
Gillespie
Justin
J
Kitzes
Charles
C
Marshall
Nicholas
N
Matzke
David P
DP
Mindell
Eloy
E
Revilla
Adam B
AB
Smith
D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018534:Earth, Planet; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005544:Forecasting; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical