[The study of cholelithiasis prevalence based on prognostic investigation of hepatobiliary diseases].
OBJECTIVE
To study trends in hepatobiliary diseases (HBD) and prognosis of cholelithiasis morbidity for the nearest future.


METHODS
We studied biochemical bile properties in 404 patients with different hepatobiliary diseases and analysed statistics on hepatobiliary morbidity in Udmurt Republic for 2005-2009 using the method of statistical forecasting (trend modeling).


RESULTS
The Udmurt Republic has stable statistics on digestive organs morbidity. However, now there is a trend for a rise in overall and primary hepatobiliary morbidity. All the examinees with HBD had the first stage of cholelithiasis (lithogenic bile, biliary sludge).


CONCLUSIONS
By trend prognostication of hepatobiliary morbidity, the near future will present an increased number of patients with stage 1 (prestone) cholelithiasis.
D000328:Adult; D002769:Cholelithiasis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D011379:Prognosis; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult