Effect of discounting on estimation of benefits determined by hepatitis C treatment.
The combination of either boceprevir or telaprevir with ribavirin and interferon (triple therapy) has been shown to be more effective than ribavirin+interferon (dual therapy) for the treatment of genotype 1 hepatitis C. Since the benefit of these treatments takes place after years, simulation models are needed to predict long-term outcomes. In simulation models, the choice of different values of yearly discount rates (e.g., 6%, 3.5%, 2%, 1.5% or 0%) influences the results, but no studies have specifically addressed this issue. We examined this point by determining the long-term benefits under different conditions on the basis of standard modelling and using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to quantify the benefits. In our base case scenario, we compared the long-term benefit between patients given a treatment with a 40% sustained virologic response (SVR) (dual therapy) and patients given a treatment with a 70% SVR (triple therapy), and we then examined how these specific yearly discount rates influenced the incremental benefit. The gain between a 70% SVR and a 40% SVR decreased from 0.45 QALYs with a 0% discount rate to 0.22 QALYs with a 6% discount rate (ratio between the two values = 2.04). Testing the other discounting assumptions confirmed that the discount rate has a marked impact on the magnitude of the model-estimated incremental benefit. In conclusion, the results of our analysis can be helpful to better interpret cost-effectiveness studies evaluating new treatment for hepatitis C.
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Trippoli
D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D003198:Computer Simulation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005838:Genotype; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000187:drug effects / Q000235:genetics*; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006801:Humans; D007372:Interferons / Q000008:administration & dosage; D008390:Markov Chains; D009842:Oligopeptides / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000191:economics; D011392:Proline / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000031:analogs & derivatives / Q000191:economics; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012254:Ribavirin / Q000008:administration & dosage
D000998:Antiviral Agents; D009842:Oligopeptides; D012254:Ribavirin; C486464:telaprevir; C512204:N-(3-amino-1-(cyclobutylmethyl)-2,3-dioxopropyl)-3-(2-((((1,1-dimethylethyl)amino)carbonyl)amino)-3,3-dimethyl-1-oxobutyl)-6,6-dimethyl-3-azabicyclo(3.1.0)hexan-2-carboxamide; D007372:Interferons; D011392:Proline