Trends in incidence of gastrointestinal tract cancers in Western iran, 1993-2007.
BACKGROUND
Few studies have addressed the secular trend of malignancies in developing countries such as Iran. This study aimed to determine the trend in the incidence of gastrointestinal cancers during a period of 15 years in Kermanshah, Iran.


METHODS
All of the confirmed positive pathologic reports for esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers from 1993 to 2007 were collected and compared with the data compiled in the provincial health center. The incidence rate was standardized for world population using a direct method. The Fay and Feuer method was used to calculate the 95% confidence intervals for each cancer in each year. Trends were investigated using linear regression.


RESULTS
Over the period, 2951 cases of gastrointestinal cancer were reported in Kermanshah Province. The age-standardized incidence rates for gastric, esophageal and colorectal cancers were 9.2, 8.1 and 4.5 per 100,000 respectively over 15 years. In all types, the incidence increased with age. The study showed that the incidence of gastric and esophageal cancers decreased annually by 0.28 (-0.67-0.11) and 0.36 (-0.70 - (-0.02)), respectively. Colorectal cancer demonstrated an increase in the incidence [0.14 (95% CI: -0.01-0.29) annually].


CONCLUSIONS
A decrease in the incidence of gastric and esophageal cancers and an increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer are in line with reports from other developing countries in epidemiologic transition. Such trends warrant in depth investigation for the exact reasons.
Department of Epidemiology, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
F
F
Najafi
H R
HR
Mozaffari
M
M
Karami
B
B
Izadi
R
R
Tavvafzadeh
Y
Y
Pasdar