title: Spatial analysis of new cases of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, between 2004 and 2009.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Leprosy in Brazil is a public health issue, and there are many regions in the State of Espírito Santo with high endemic incidence levels of leprosy, characterizing this state as a priority for leprosy programs. The aim of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of coefficients of new cases of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a descriptive and ecologic study based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo between 2004 and 2009. Data were gathered from the available records of the Espírito Santo State Health Secretary. The global and local Bayesian empirical methods were used to produce an estimate of leprosy risk, smoothing the fluctuation effects of the detection coefficients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The study resulted in a coefficient adjustment of new cases in 10 towns that changed their classification, among which, 2 went from low to medium, 4 from medium to high, 3 from high to very high, and 1 from very high to hyper-endemic. An average variation of 1.02, fluctuating between 0 and 12.39 cases/100,000 inhabitants, was found in a comparative calculation between the Local Ebest value and the average coefficient of new leprosy cases in the State of Espírito Santo.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The spatial analysis of leprosy favors the establishment of control strategies with a better cost-benefit relationship since it reveals specific and priority regions, thereby enabling the development of actions that can interfere in the transmission chain.
authors: Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brasil. polianebsampaio@hotmail.com
authors: Poliane Barbosa
authors: PB
authors: Sampaio
authors: Tiago Lessa
authors: TL
authors: Rossi
authors: Crispim
authors: C
authors: Cerutti Junior
authors: Eliana
authors: E
authors: Zandonade
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007918:Leprosy / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013029:Space-Time Clustering