title: Forecast model for the evaluation of economic resources employed in the health care of patients with HIV infection.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The total health care cost for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients has constantly grown in recent years. To date, there is no information about how this trend will behave over the next few years. The aim of the present study is to define a pharmacoeconomic model for the forecast of the costs of a group of chronically treated patients followed over the period 2004-2009.
  
  
  METHODS
  A pharmacoeconomics model was built to describe the probability of transition among different health states and to modify the therapy over time. A Markov model was applied to evaluate the temporal evolution of the average cost. The health care resources exploited during hospitalization were analyzed by using an "activity-based costing" method.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The Markov model showed that the mean total cost, after an initial increase, tended to remain stable. A total of 20 clinical records were examined. The average daily cost for each patient was EUR 484.42, with a cost for admission of EUR 6781.88.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The treatment of HIV infection in compliance with the guidelines is also effective from the payer perspective, as it allows a good health condition to be maintained and reduces the need and the costs of hospitalizations.
authors: Divisione di Malattie Infettive e Tropicali - Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy.
authors: Paolo
authors: P
authors: Sacchi
authors: Savino Fa
authors: SF
authors: Patruno
authors: Raffaele
authors: R
authors: Bruno
authors: Serena Maria Benedetta
authors: SM
authors: Cima
authors: Pietro
authors: P
authors: Previtali
authors: Alessia
authors: A
authors: Franchini
authors: Luca
authors: L
authors: Nicolini
authors: Carla
authors: C
authors: Rognoni
authors: Lucia
authors: L
authors: Sacchi
authors: Riccardo
authors: R
authors: Bellazzi
authors: Gaetano
authors: G
authors: Filice