[Retrospective cohort study on period of incubation and survival among former commercial plasma donors infected with HIV in Hebei province].
OBJECTIVE
To examine the state of incubation period and survival time of former commercial plasma donors (FCPDs) infected with HIV.


METHODS
All objects infected with HIV were from Hebei province and found from general investigation for FCPDs in 1995. The infector cohort by 142 cases was used to estimate incubation period. In the infector cohort, the time which infectors entered the cohort was their infection time, which was the middle value of the origin date, which was January 1, 1995. The onset of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. End point of observation was Dec 31, 2010. There were 192 months in all from beginning to end. The AIDS cohort by 57 cases was used to estimate the survival of the patients. In the patient cohort, the time of AIDS onset was defined as the time entering the cohort, and death of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. The cumulative incidence ratio, cumulative mortality, illness intensity and mortality intensity were analyzed through Kaplan-Meier.


RESULTS
During the observation period, 123 cases of 142 infectors developed into AIDS, the cumulative incidence was 86.42% (123/142) and the intensity was 8.53/100 person-years and the median time of incubation period was 112.0 months (95%CI: 108.8 - 115.2). The death dates of 57 patients were from 1 to 24 months after onset. The cumulative mortality was 100%, and the intensity was 250.66/100 person-years and the median survival time was 3.0 months (95%CI: 1.8 - 4.2). It was estimated that the median time was 115.0 months (9.6 years) from infection to death.


CONCLUSIONS
The median times of incubation and median survival time were 112.0 and 3.0 months, respectively.
Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang 050021, China. chensuliang@sina.com
Su-liang
SL
Chen
Guang-yi
GY
Bai
Qiao-min
QM
Li
Bao-jun
BJ
Li
Yan-liang
YL
Hui
Liang
L
Liang
Wei
W
Wang
Zhi-qiang
ZQ
Chen
Xin-li
XL
Lu
Xiao-feng
XF
Wang
Yu-qi
YQ
Zhang
Hong-ru
HR
Zhao
D000328:Adult; D001782:Blood Donors; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006678:HIV / Q000502:physiology; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate; D017735:Virus Latency; D055815:Young Adult