Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.
Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. boneill@ucar.edu
Brian C
BC
O'Neill
Brant
B
Liddle
Leiwen
L
Jiang
Kirk R
KR
Smith
Shonali
S
Pachauri
Michael
M
Dalton
Regina
R
Fuchs
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis*; D003710:Demography / Q000639:trends*; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D005579:Fossil Fuels / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017752:Greenhouse Effect / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D011156:Population Density; D011158:Population Growth; D014507:Urbanization / Q000639:trends
D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D005579:Fossil Fuels; D002245:Carbon Dioxide