The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the age composition of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.
BACKGROUND
Antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage is rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Based on the effect of ART on survival of HIV-infected people and HIV transmission, the age composition of the HIV epidemic in the region is expected to change in the coming decades. We quantify the change in the age composition of HIV-infected people in all countries in SSA.


METHODS
We used STDSIM, a stochastic microsimulation model, and developed an approach to represent HIV prevalence and treatment coverage in 43 countries in SSA, using publicly available data. We predict future trends in HIV prevalence and total number of HIV-infected people aged 15-49 years and 50 years or older for different ART coverage levels.


RESULTS
We show that, if treatment coverage continues to increase at present rates, the total number of HIV-infected people aged 50 years or older will nearly triple over the coming years: from 3.1 million in 2011 to 9.1 million in 2040, dramatically changing the age composition of the HIV epidemic in SSA. In 2011, about one in seven HIV-infected people was aged 50 years or older; in 2040, this ratio will be larger than one in four.


CONCLUSIONS
The HIV epidemic in SSA is rapidly ageing, implying changing needs and demands in many social sectors, including health, social care, and old-age pension systems. Health policymakers need to anticipate the impact of the changing HIV age composition in their planning for future capacity in these systems.
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. j.hontelez@erasmusmc.nl
Jan A C
JA
Hontelez
Sake J
SJ
de Vlas
Rob
R
Baltussen
Marie-Louise
ML
Newell
Roel
R
Bakker
Frank
F
Tanser
Mark
M
Lurie
Till
T
Bärnighausen
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017954:Africa South of the Sahara / Q000453:epidemiology; D000375:Aging; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D058872:Epidemics; D005260:Female; D006291:Health Policy; D006297:Health Services Accessibility / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D055815:Young Adult
D019380:Anti-HIV Agents