[Estimates and prediction on incidence, mortality and prevalence of lung cancer in China in 2008].
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of lung cancer in China, in 2008.


METHODS
Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005) was used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of lung cancer in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in the next 20 years.


RESULTS
In 2008, the incidence of lung cancer was 522,050 (18.5%) with the incidence rate as 33.5/100,000, which ranked the first among all the cancers. Mortality of lung cancer in China was 452,813 (23.1%) with the mortality rate as 28.7/100,000, which also ranked the first among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence rate of lung cancer in China was 487,815 (10.6%) with the proportion as 45.6/100,000, which ranked fourth among all the cancers. Lung cancer happened more frequently among people older than 45 years, particularly in males. Our data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.


CONCLUSIONS
Lung cancer was the leading cause for both incidence and mortality of all cancers in China and both kept increasing. The key population fell in those older than 45 years, particularly males, that should be under special prevention and control for lung cancer.
Cancer Institute and Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100021, China.
Sheng
S
Chang
Min
M
Dai
Jian-song
JS
Ren
Yu-heng
YH
Chen
Lan-wei
LW
Guo
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D055815:Young Adult