Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon.
Predicting when future species extinctions will occur is necessary for directing conservation investments but has proved difficult. We developed a new method for predicting extinctions over time, accounting for the timing and magnitude of habitat loss. We applied this to the Brazilian Amazon, predicting that local extinctions of forest-dependent vertebrate species have thus far been minimal (1% of species by 2008), with more than 80% of extinctions expected to be incurred from historical habitat loss still to come. Realistic deforestation scenarios suggest that local regions will lose an average of nine vertebrate species and have a further 16 committed to extinction by 2050. There is a window of opportunity to dilute the legacy of historical deforestation by concentrating conservation efforts in areas with greatest debt.
Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.
Oliver R
OR
Wearn
Daniel C
DC
Reuman
Robert M
RM
Ewers
D000663:Amphibians; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D001938:Brazil; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D008322:Mammals; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D013997:Time Factors; D014197:Trees; D014714:Vertebrates