title: High-resolution behavioral economic analysis of cigarette demand to inform tax policy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Novel methods in behavioral economics permit the systematic assessment of the relationship between cigarette consumption and price. Towards informing tax policy, the goals of this study were to conduct a high-resolution analysis of cigarette demand in a large sample of adult smokers and to use the data to estimate the effects of tax increases in 10 US States.
  
  
  METHODS
  In-person descriptive survey assessment.
  
  
  METHODS
  Academic departments at three universities.
  
  
  METHODS
  Adult daily smokers (i.e. more than five cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; ≥8th grade education); n = 1056.
  
  
  METHODS
  Estimated cigarette demand, demographics, expired carbon monoxide.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The cigarette demand curve exhibited highly variable levels of price sensitivity, especially in the form of 'left-digit effects' (i.e. very high price sensitivity as pack prices transitioned from one whole number to the next; e.g. $5.80-6/pack). A $1 tax increase in the 10 states was projected to reduce the economic burden of smoking by an average of $530.6 million (range: $93.6-976.5 million) and increase gross tax revenue by an average of 162% (range: 114-247%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Tobacco price sensitivity is non-linear across the demand curve and in particular for pack-level left-digit price transitions. Tax increases in US states with similar price and tax rates to the sample are projected to result in substantial decreases in smoking-related costs and substantial increases in tax revenues.
authors: Department of Psychology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 306002, USA. jmackill@uga.edu
authors: James
authors: J
authors: MacKillop
authors: Lauren R
authors: LR
authors: Few
authors: James G
authors: JG
authors: Murphy
authors: Lauren M
authors: LM
authors: Wier
authors: John
authors: J
authors: Acker
authors: Cara
authors: C
authors: Murphy
authors: Monika
authors: M
authors: Stojek
authors: Maureen
authors: M
authors: Carrigan
authors: Frank
authors: F
authors: Chaloupka
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002248:Carbon Monoxide / Q000032:analysis; D003132:Commerce; D003258:Consumer Behavior; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011640:Public Policy / Q000191:economics; D012907:Smoking / Q000191:economics* / Q000523:psychology; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D013660:Taxes / Q000191:economics*; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D002248:Carbon Monoxide