title: Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation.
abstract: At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60-80%, developing countries about 20-40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3-2/3 (CESM 33-67%, BNU-ESM 35-65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.
authors: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875/Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors: Ting
authors: T
authors: Wei
authors: Shili
authors: S
authors: Yang
authors: John C
authors: JC
authors: Moore
authors: Peijun
authors: P
authors: Shi
authors: Xuefeng
authors: X
authors: Cui
authors: Qingyun
authors: Q
authors: Duan
authors: Bing
authors: B
authors: Xu
authors: Yongjiu
authors: Y
authors: Dai
authors: Wenping
authors: W
authors: Yuan
authors: Xin
authors: X
authors: Wei
authors: Zhipeng
authors: Z
authors: Yang
authors: Tijian
authors: T
authors: Wen
authors: Fei
authors: F
authors: Teng
authors: Yun
authors: Y
authors: Gao
authors: Jieming
authors: J
authors: Chou
authors: Xiaodong
authors: X
authors: Yan
authors: Zhigang
authors: Z
authors: Wei
authors: Yan
authors: Y
authors: Guo
authors: Yundi
authors: Y
authors: Jiang
authors: Xuejie
authors: X
authors: Gao
authors: Kaicun
authors: K
authors: Wang
authors: Xiaogu
authors: X
authors: Zheng
authors: Fumin
authors: F
authors: Ren
authors: Shihua
authors: S
authors: Lv
authors: Yongqiang
authors: Y
authors: Yu
authors: Bin
authors: B
authors: Liu
authors: Yong
authors: Y
authors: Luo
authors: Weijing
authors: W
authors: Li
authors: Duoying
authors: D
authors: Ji
authors: Jinming
authors: J
authors: Feng
authors: Qizhong
authors: Q
authors: Wu
authors: Huaqiong
authors: H
authors: Cheng
authors: Jiankun
authors: J
authors: He
authors: Congbin
authors: C
authors: Fu
authors: Duzheng
authors: D
authors: Ye
authors: Guanhua
authors: G
authors: Xu
authors: Wenjie
authors: W
authors: Dong
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis*; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011640:Public Policy; D014480:United Nations
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D002245:Carbon Dioxide