title: Comparison of enzootic risk measures for predicting West Nile disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004-2010.
abstract: In Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the vector index, and the Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system. A case-crossover study was performed by using symptom onset dates from 384 persons with WNV infection to determine their relative environmental exposure to high-risk conditions as measured by each method. Receiver-operating characteristic plots determined thresholds for each model, and the area under the curve was used to compare methods. We found that the best risk assessment model for human WNV cases included surveillance data from avian, mosquito, and climate sources.
authors: University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA.
authors: Jennifer L
authors: JL
authors: Kwan
authors: Bborie K
authors: BK
authors: Park
authors: Tim E
authors: TE
authors: Carpenter
authors: Van
authors: V
authors: Ngo
authors: Rachel
authors: R
authors: Civen
authors: William K
authors: WK
authors: Reisen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000821:virology; D002980:Climate; D003465:Culex / Q000502:physiology / Q000821:virology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology / Q000821:virology; D015141:Los Angeles / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance; D013029:Space-Time Clustering; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D014902:West Nile virus / Q000502:physiology