title: An SEI model for sarcoptic mange among chamois.
abstract: We consider a simple model to study the dynamics of sarcoptic mange in a population of chamois. The epidemiological patterns observed during an epidemic in Italy are reconstructed and key parameters of the model are estimated from field data. In particular, we calculate the basic reproductive ratio R (0), a threshold value for chamois density for the occurrence of an epidemic and the speed of propagation of the epidemic wave. The model is then used to obtain indications on the effect of culling as a possible control measure in a closed population and extended to analyse the spatial diffusion of the epidemic. Our results are in agreement with mange epidemiology and observations, and suggest that intervention could be efficacious in reducing the impact of an epidemic.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, via Sommarive 14, 38100 Povo, Trento, Italy. alunelli@science.unitn.it
authors.forename: Antonella
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lunelli
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004058:Diffusion; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D048608:Rupicapra / Q000502:physiology*; D012532:Scabies / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013997:Time Factors