title: Chapter 12: Yale lung cancer model.
abstract: The age-period-cohort model is known to provide an excellent description of the temporal trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality. This analytic approach is extended to include the contribution of carcinogenesis models for smoking. Usefulness of this strategy is that it offers a way to temporally calibrate a model that is fitted to population data and it can be readily adopted for the consideration of many different models. In addition, it provides diagnostics that can suggest temporal limitations of a particular carcinogenesis model in describing population rates. Alternative carcinogenesis models can be embedded within this framework. The two-stage clonal expansion model is implemented here. The model was used to estimate the impact of tobacco control after dissemination of knowledge of the harmful effects of cigarette smoking by comparing the observed number of lung cancer deaths to those expected if there had been no control compared to an ideal of complete control in 1965. Results indicate that 35.2% and 26.5% of lung cancer deaths that could have been avoided actually were for males and females, respectively.
authors.affiliation: Yale School of Public Health, 60 College St., New Haven, CT 06520, USA. theodore.holford@yale.edu
authors.forename: Theodore R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Holford
authors.forename: Keita
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ebisu
authors.forename: Lisa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: McKay
authors.forename: Cheongeun
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Oh
authors.forename: Tongzhang
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Zheng
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D002138:Calibration; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000453:epidemiology; D016540:Smoking Cessation; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States