title: Impact of vaccine arrival on the optimal control of a newly emerging infectious disease: A theoretical study.
abstract: When a newly emerging human infectious disease spreads through a host population, it may be that public health authorities must begin facing the outbreaks and planning an intervention campaign when not all intervention tools are readily available. In such cases, the problem of finding optimal intervention strategies to minimize both the disease burden and the intervention costs may be addressed by considering multiple intervention regimes. In this paper, we consider the scenario in which authorities may rely initially only on non-pharmaceutical interventions at the beginning of the campaign, knowing that a vaccine will later be available, at an exogenous and known switching time. We use a two-stage optimal control problem over a finite time horizon to analyze the optimal intervention strategies during the whole campaign, and to assess the effects of the new intervention tool on the preceding stage of the campaign. We obtain the optimality systems of two connected optimal control problems, and show the solution profiles through numerical simulations.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Applications, University of Naples Federico II, via Cintia, I-80126 Naples, Italy. buonomo@unina.it
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Buonomo
authors.forename: Eleonora
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Messina
mesh_terms: D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003198:Computer Simulation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D032541:Mass Vaccination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008954:Models, Biological