title: Germany SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on future smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Germany.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although Germany has recently implemented some tobacco control policies, there is considerable scope to strengthen policies consistent with the MPOWER guidelines. This article describes the development of a simulation model projecting the effect of future tobacco control policies in Germany on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality.
  
  
  METHODS
  Germany SimSmoke-an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy-uses population, smoking rates, and policy data for Germany. It assesses, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment, and youth access policies.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With a comprehensive set of policies, smoking prevalence within the first few years can be reduced by about 22.0% relative to the status quo and by 37.9% (40.5%) for males (females) in 30 years. By 2040, 39,548 deaths could be averted in that year alone. Without stronger policies, 700,000 additional smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) would occur in Germany over the next 30 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The model indicates that the consequences of inaction are considerable; without the implementation of a stronger set of policies, smoking prevalence rates will remain relatively stable, and SADs among women will continue to rise over a 30-year horizon. Significant inroads into reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through strengthening tobacco control policies in line with MPOWER recommendations.
authors.affiliation: Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, MD, USA.
authors.forename: David T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Levy
authors.forename: Kenneth
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Blackman
authors.forename: Laura M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Currie
authors.forename: Ute
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Mons
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015995:Prevalence; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D014026:Nicotiana