title: The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic.
abstract: In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.
authors.affiliation: Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1, CES, 106 boulevard de l'Hopital, 75013, Paris, France. dalbis@univ-paris1.fr
authors.forename: Hippolyte
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: d'Albis
authors.forename: Emmanuelle
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Augeraud-Véron
authors.forename: Elodie
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Djemai
authors.forename: Arnaud
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ducrot
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D003198:Computer Simulation; D036262:Empirical Research; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D007927:Lesotho / Q000453:epidemiology; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009548:Niger / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D012747:Sexual Partners