title: Can human biology allow most of us to become centenarians?
abstract: Life span is a topic of great interest in science, medicine and among the general public. How long people live has a profound impact on medical costs, intergenerational interactions, and the solvency of age-based entitlement programs around the world. These challenges are already occurring and the magnitude of their impact is, in part, proportional to the fraction of a population that lives the longest. Some demographic forecasts suggest that most babies born since the year 2000 will survive to their 100th birthday. If these forecasts are correct, then there is reason to fear that the financial solvency of even the most prosperous countries are in jeopardy. We argue here that human biology will preclude survival to age 100 for most people.
authors.affiliation: Reynolds Department of Geriatric Medicine, College of Medicine, The University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 72104, USA. Bruce-Carnes@ouhsc.edu
authors.forename: B A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Carnes
authors.forename: S J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Olshansky
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hayflick
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over / Q000502:physiology*; D000375:Aging / Q000502:physiology; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D015993:Life Tables; D008136:Longevity / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male