title: Predicted effects of treatment for HCV infection vary among European countries.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, as well as screening practices and access to therapy, vary among European countries. It is important to determine the magnitude of the effects of such differences on incidence and mortality of infection. We compared the dynamics of infection and screening and treatment practices among Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We also assessed the effects of treatment with pegylated interferon and additional effects of triple therapy with protease inhibitors.
  
  
  METHODS
  We created a country-specific Markov model of HCV progression based on published epidemiologic data (on HCV prevalence, screening, genotype, alcohol consumption among patients, and treatments) and reports of competitive and hepatocellular carcinoma mortality for the 6 countries. The model was used to predict the incidence of HCV-related cirrhosis and its mortality until 2021 for each country.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From 2002 to 2011, antiviral therapy reduced the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 7.1% and deaths by 3.4% overall. Reductions in incidence and mortality values ranged from 4.0% and 1.9%, respectively, in Italy to 16.3% and 9.0%, respectively, in France. From 2012 to 2021, antiviral treatment of patients with HCV genotype 1 infection that includes protease inhibitor-based triple therapy will reduce the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 17.7% and mortality by 9.7% overall. The smallest reduction is predicted for Italy (incidence reduced by 10.1% and mortality by 5.4%) and the highest is for France (reductions of 34.3% and 20.7%, respectively).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although HCV infection is treated with the same therapies in different countries, the effects of the therapies on morbidity and mortality vary significantly. In addition to common guidelines that are based on virologic response-guided therapy, there is a need for public health policies based on population-guided therapy.
authors.affiliation: ATIP-AVENIR INSERM Unité 995, Lille, France.
authors.forename: Sylvie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Deuffic-Burban
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Deltenre
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Buti
authors.forename: Tommaso
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Stroffolini
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Parkes
authors.forename: Nikolai
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Mühlberger
authors.forename: Uwe
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Siebert
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Moreno
authors.forename: Angelos
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hatzakis
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Rosenberg
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zeuzem
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mathurin
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology; D018450:Disease Progression; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000235:genetics; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016898:Interferon-alpha / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols / Q000627:therapeutic use; D011480:Protease Inhibitors / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D012254:Ribavirin / Q000627:therapeutic use
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D016898:Interferon-alpha; D011480:Protease Inhibitors; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols; D012254:Ribavirin