title: The predictive ability of blood pressure in elderly trial patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the impact of the blood pressure (BP) profile on cardiovascular risk in the Medical Research Council (UK) elderly trial; investigate whether the effects of hypertensive drugs in reducing event rates are solely a product of systolic pressure reduction.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using longitudinal BP data from 4396 hypertensive patients, the general trend over time was estimated using a first-stage multilevel model. We then investigated how BP acted alongside other BP-related covariates in a second-stage 'time-to-event' statistical model, assessing risk for stroke events and coronary heart disease (CHD). Differences in outcome prediction between diuretic, β-blocker and placebo treatment arms were investigated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The β-blocker arm experienced comparatively poor control of current SBP, episodic peaks and variability in BP levels. After adjusting for the mean level, variability in SBP over time was significant: risk ratio was 1.15 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.31] across all patients for stroke events. The risk ratio for current SBP was 1.36 (95% CI: 1.16-1.58). Current DBP and variability in DBP also predicted stroke independently: risk ratios was 1.43 and 1.18, respectively. The risk factors exhibited weaker associations with CHD risk; only the highest measured value and variability in SBP showed a statistically significant association: risk ratios were 1.26 and 1.16, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Individual risk characterization could be augmented with additional prognostic information, besides current SBP, including current diastolic pressure, temporal variability over and above general trends and historical measurements.
authors.affiliation: Biostatistics, Health Methodology Research Group, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK. matthew.carr@manchester.ac.uk
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Carr
authors.forename: Yanchun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Bao
authors.forename: Jianxin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pan
authors.forename: Kennedy
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Cruickshank
authors.forename: Roseanne
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: McNamee
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000959:Antihypertensive Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D001794:Blood Pressure; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000188:drug therapy*; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests
chemical_list: D000959:Antihypertensive Agents