Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China.
OBJECTIVE
The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.


METHODS
Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.


RESULTS
Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.


CONCLUSIONS
Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.
Department of Medicine, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Faye
F
Chan
Susana
S
Adamo
Pamela
P
Coxson
Lee
L
Goldman
Dongfeng
D
Gu
Dong
D
Zhao
Chung-Shiuan
CS
Chen
Jiang
J
He
Valentina
V
Mara
Andrew
A
Moran
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012424:Rural Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015996:Survival Rate; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014507:Urbanization