Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China.
The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume (n=20,084) and lead dust (n=5383) measurements collected over four decades in Shanghai, China. Using mixed-effect models, we calibrated intensity JEM ratings to the measurements using fixed-effects terms for year and JEM rating. We developed job/industry-specific estimates from the random-effects terms for job and industry. The model estimates were applied to subjects' jobs when the JEM probability rating was high for either job or industry; remaining jobs were considered unexposed. The models predicted that exposure increased monotonically with JEM intensity rating and decreased 20-50-fold over time. The cumulative calibrated JEM estimates and job/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (Pearson correlation=0.79-0.84). Overall, 5% of the person-years and 8% of the women were exposed to lead fume; 2% of the person-years and 4% of the women were exposed to lead dust. The most common lead-exposed jobs were manufacturing electronic equipment. These historical lead estimates should enhance our ability to detect associations between lead exposure and cancer risk in the future epidemiologic analyses.
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Dong-Hee
DH
Koh
Program in Epidemiology, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Parveen
P
Bhatti
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Joseph B
JB
Coble
1] Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA [2] Formerly Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, now Stewart Exposure Assessments, LLC, Arlington, Virginia, USA.
Patricia A
PA
Stewart
Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
Wei
W
Lu
Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee.
Xiao-Ou
XO
Shu
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Bu-Tian
BT
Ji
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Shouzheng
S
Xue
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Sarah J
SJ
Locke
Environmental and Occupational Health Division, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Lutzen
L
Portengen
Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee.
Gong
G
Yang
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Wong-Ho
WH
Chow
Department of Epidemiology, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
Yu-Tang
YT
Gao
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Nathaniel
N
Rothman
Environmental and Occupational Health Division, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Roel
R
Vermeulen
Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, North Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Melissa C
MC
Friesen
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000395:Air Pollutants, Occupational / Q000032:analysis*; D002138:Calibration; D002681:China; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004391:Dust / Q000032:analysis*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007221:Industry; D007854:Lead / Q000032:analysis*; D008875:Middle Aged; D016273:Occupational Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D009790:Occupations; D012189:Retrospective Studies
D000395:Air Pollutants, Occupational; D004391:Dust; D007854:Lead