Climate change and temperature rise: implications on food- and water-borne diseases.
This study attempts to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food- and water-borne illnesses in the context of an urban coastal city, taking Beirut-Lebanon as a study area. A Poisson generalized linear model was developed to assess the impacts of temperature on the morbidity rate. The model was used with four climatic scenarios to simulate a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. The correlation established in this study exhibits a decrease in the number of illnesses with increasing temperature until reaching a threshold of 19.2 °C, beyond which the number of morbidity cases increases with temperature. By 2050, the results show a substantial increase in food- and water-borne related morbidity of 16 to 28% that can reach up to 42% by the end of the century under A1FI (fossil fuel intensive development) or can be reversed to ~0% under B1 (lowest emissions trajectory), highlighting the need for early mitigation and adaptation measures.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, American University of Beirut, Lebanon. mfadel@aub.edu.lb
Mutasem
M
El-Fadel
Sophia
S
Ghanimeh
Rania
R
Maroun
Ibrahim
I
Alameddine
D003198:Computer Simulation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D060766:Drinking Water / Q000382:microbiology*; D005260:Female; D005517:Foodborne Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D057232:Global Warming / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007861:Lebanon; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009017:Morbidity; D014871:Water Microbiology
D060766:Drinking Water