A vaccination model for a multi-city system.
A modelling approach is used for studying the effects of population vaccination on the epidemic dynamics of a set of n cities interconnected by a complex transportation network. The model is based on a sophisticated mover-stayer formulation of inter-city population migration, upon which is included the classical SIS dynamics of disease transmission which operates within each city. Our analysis studies the stability properties of the Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE) of the full n-city system in terms of the reproductive number R(0). Should vaccination reduce R(0) below unity, the disease will be eradicated in all n-cities. We determine the precise conditions for which this occurs, and show that disease eradication by vaccination depend on the transportation structure of the migration network in a very direct manner. Several concrete examples are presented and discussed, and some counter-intuitive results found.
Department of Physics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel. mlachiany@gmail.com
Menachem
M
Lachiany
Lewi
L
Stone
D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002947:Cities; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000276:immunology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D018448:Models, Immunological; D014195:Travel; D014611:Vaccination / Q000379:methods*