Correlation analysis for the attack of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi and the medical-meteorological forecast model.
OBJECTIVE
To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the outbreak of bacillary dysentery, so as to provide suggestions for disease prevention.


METHODS
Based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi, the descriptive statistics, single-factor correlation analysis and back-propagation artificial neural net-work were conducted using data on five basic meteorological factors and data on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China, for the period 1970-2004.


RESULTS
The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed significant positive correlation relationship with the precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and temperature, respectively. The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a negatively correlated relationship with the wind speed and the change trend of average wind speed. The results of medical-meteorological forecast model showed a relatively high accuracy rate.


CONCLUSIONS
There is a close relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but the contributions of which to the onset of bacillary dysentery are different to each other.
Department of Basic Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100029, China.
Shi-Lei
SL
Ma
Qiao-Ling
QL
Tang
Hong-Wei
HW
Liu
Juan
J
He
Si-Hua
SH
Gao
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004405:Dysentery, Bacillary / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008516:Medicine, Chinese Traditional; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013223:Statistics as Topic