title: Modeling the impact of alcohol dependence on mortality burden and the effect of available treatment interventions in the European Union.
abstract: Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease, and Alcohol Dependence (AD) is the most important disorder attributable to this behavior. The objective of this study was to quantify mortality associated with AD and the potential impact of treatment. For the EU countries, for the age group 15-64 years, mortality attributable to alcohol consumption in general, to heavy drinking, and to AD were estimated based on the latest data on exposure and mortality. Potential effects of AD treatment were modeled based on Cochrane and other systematic reviews of the effectiveness of the best known and most effective interventions. In the EU 88.9% of men and 82.1% of women aged 15-64 years were current drinkers; and 15.3% of men and 3.4% of women in this age group were heavy drinkers. AD affected 5.4% of men and 1.5% of women. The net burden caused by alcohol consumption was 1 in 7 deaths in men and 1 in 13 deaths in women. The majority of this burden was due to heavy drinking (77%), and 71% of this burden was due to AD. Increasing treatment coverage for the most effective treatments to 40% of all people with AD was estimated to reduce alcohol-attributable mortality by 13% for men and 9% for women (annually 10,000 male and 1700 female deaths avoided). Increasing treatment rates for AD was identified as an important issue for future public health strategies to reduce alcohol-attributable harm and to complement the current focus of alcohol policy.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada. jtrehm@gmail.com
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rehm
authors.forename: K D
authors.initials: KD
authors.lastname: Shield
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Gmel
authors.forename: M X
authors.initials: MX
authors.lastname: Rehm
authors.forename: U
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Frick
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005062:European Union; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence