title: Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.
abstract: Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.
authors.affiliation: Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund Castle, Denmark. brm@aqua.dtu.dk
authors.forename: Brian R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Mackenzie
authors.forename: H E Markus
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Meier
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lindegren
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Neuenfeldt
authors.forename: Margit
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Eero
authors.forename: Thorsten
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Blenckner
authors.forename: Maciej T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Tomczak
authors.forename: Susa
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Niiranen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001454:Baltic States; D057231:Climate Change; D005399:Fishes; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013696:Temperature