title: Comparing model performance for survival prediction using total Glasgow Coma Scale and its components in traumatic brain injury.
abstract: The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score is used in clinical practice for patient assessment and communication among clinicians and also in outcome prediction models such as the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRIS). The objective of this study is to determine which GCS subscore is best associated with outcome, taking time of assessment into account. Records of patients with brain injury who presented after 1989 were extracted from the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database. Using logistic regression, a baseline model was derived with age, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and year of injury as covariates and survival at discharge as the dependent variable. Total GCS, its subscores, and their combinations at various time points were separately added to the baseline model to compare their effect on model performance. The dataset contained 21,657 cases. The total GCS score at scene and its subscores had significantly lower predictive power compared with those recorded on arrival at the Emergency Department (ED) (scene total GCS: Area Under the Curve-AUC: 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89-0.90) and Nagelkerke R(2) of 0.55, admission total GCS: AUC of 0.91; 95% CI: 0.91-0.91, and Nagelkerke R(2) of 0.59). Eye and verbal subscores had significantly lower performances compared with total GCS, motor subscore, and various combinations of subscores. Motor subscore and total GCS appeared to have similar predictive performance (admission total and motor GCS both had AUC of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.91-0.92) and Nagelkerke R(2) of 0.59 and 0.58, respectively). Motor subscore contains most of the predictive power of the total score. GCS on arrival is a significantly better predictor of outcome than that recorded at scene.
authors.affiliation: Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) Clinical Sciences Building, Salford Royal Hospital, Salford, United Kingdom. mehdimlesko@gmail.com
authors.forename: Mehdi Moazzez
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Lesko
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Jenks
authors.forename: Sara J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: O'Brien
authors.forename: Charmaine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Childs
authors.forename: Omar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Bouamra
authors.forename: Maralyn
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Woodford
authors.forename: Fiona
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lecky
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001930:Brain Injuries / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality*; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital; D005260:Female; D015600:Glasgow Coma Scale; D006801:Humans; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D055815:Young Adult