title: Extremes of temperature, oxygen and blooms in the Baltic sea in a changing climate.
abstract: In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical Oceanography, Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany. Thomas.Neumann@io-warnemuende.de
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Neumann
authors.forename: Kari
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Eilola
authors.forename: Bo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Gustafsson
authors.forename: Bärbel
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Müller-Karulis
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kuznetsov
authors.forename: H E Markus
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Meier
authors.forename: Oleg P
authors.initials: OP
authors.lastname: Savchuk
mesh_terms: D001454:Baltic States; D057231:Climate Change; D005068:Eutrophication; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010100:Oxygen / Q000032:analysis*; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D010100:Oxygen