title: Cholera outbreak in Senegal in 2005: was climate a factor?
abstract: Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.
authors.affiliation: MIVEGEC, UMR 5290 CNRS-IRD-UM1&2, Centre de recherche IRD, Montpellier, France. guillaume.demagny@ird.fr
authors.forename: Guillaume Constantin
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: de Magny
authors.forename: Wassila
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thiaw
authors.forename: Vadlamani
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kumar
authors.forename: Noël M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Manga
authors.forename: Bernard M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Diop
authors.forename: Lamine
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Gueye
authors.forename: Mamina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kamara
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Roche
authors.forename: Raghu
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Murtugudde
authors.forename: Rita R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Colwell
mesh_terms: D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002980:Climate; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D011891:Rain; D012675:Senegal / Q000453:epidemiology; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors