title: Drought and climatic change impact on streamflow in small watersheds.
abstract: The paper presents a comprehensive, thought simple, methodology, for forecasting the annual hydrological drought, based on meteorological drought indications available early during the hydrological year. The meteorological drought of 3, 6 and 9 months is estimated using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), whereas the annual hydrological drought is represented by the streamflow drought index (SDI). Regression equations are derived between RDI and SDI, forecasting the level of hydrological drought for the entire year in real time. Further, using a wide range of scenarios representing possible climatic changes and drought events of varying severity, nomographs are devised for estimating the annual streamflow change. The Medbasin rainfall-runoff model is used to link meteorological data to streamflow. The later approach can be useful for developing preparedness plans to combat the consequences of drought and climate change. As a case study, the area of N. Peloponnese (Greece) was selected, incorporating several small river basins.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, and Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Zografou, Greece. ditigas@mail.ntua.gr
authors.forename: Dimitris
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Tigkas
authors.forename: Harris
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Vangelis
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Tsakiris