title: A methodology for evaluating the influence of diets and intergenerational dietary transitions on historic and future human exposure to persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic.
abstract: Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Inuit populations have been observed to decrease over the last decade. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to quantify the potential influence of intergenerational dietary transitions on human exposure to organic contaminants in the Arctic environment using PCB-153 as a case study. Long-term (1930-2050) dynamic simulations using realistic emission estimates were conducted using linked chemical fate and bioaccumulation models. Female body burdens were calculated over time assuming five diets with varying proportions of traditional and imported food items and then used to illustrate the potential variability at a community/population level. At any given time point, individuals consuming a 100% traditional diet (i.e. high intake of ringed seal blubber) have modelled body burdens approximately 15-150 times higher than individuals consuming a 100% imported food diet. Consumption of locally-harvested fish (e.g. Arctic cod) and seal meat are also associated with comparatively low body burdens. Decreased emissions are predicted to decrease the PCB-153 body burden of 30-year old females by 6 to 13-fold from 1980 to 2020 with dietary transitions accounting for an additional factor of 2-50 (i.e. 12-650 times lower in total) depending on the type of dietary transition and the origin of the imported food items. The model results indicate that dietary transitions are an important factor underlying the variability within and between subpopulations in addition to partially explaining the observed temporal trends. Specific information on the nature and timing of dietary transitions is highly valuable when interpreting biomonitoring data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada.
authors.forename: Cristina L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Quinn
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Armitage
authors.forename: Knut
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Breivik
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Wania
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000818:Animals; D001110:Arctic Regions; D001822:Body Burden; D004032:Diet / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D004787:Environmental Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D004930:Inuit; D008460:Meat / Q000032:analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls / Q000032:analysis; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls; C014024:2,4,5,2',4',5'-hexachlorobiphenyl