title: The reconstructed evolutionary process with the fossil record.
abstract: Using the fossil record yields more detailed reconstructions of the evolutionary process than what is obtained from contemporary lineages only. In this work, we present a stochastic process modeling not only speciation and extinction, but also fossil finds. Next, we derive an explicit formula for the likelihood of a reconstructed phylogeny with fossils, which can be used to estimate the speciation and extinction rates. Finally, we provide a comparative simulation-based evaluation of the accuracy of estimations of these rates from complete phylogenies (including extinct lineages), from reconstructions with contemporary lineages only and from reconstructions with contemporary lineages and the fossil record. Results show that taking the fossil record into account yields more accurate estimates of speciation and extinction rates than considering only contemporary lineages.
authors.affiliation: Institut de Mathématiques de Luminy, FRE 3529, CNRS, Aix-Marseille Université, Case 907, Campus de Luminy, 13288 MARSEILLE Cedex 9, France. gilles.didier@univ-amu.fr
authors.forename: Gilles
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Didier
authors.forename: Manuela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Royer-Carenzi
authors.forename: Michel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Laurin
mesh_terms: D005075:Biological Evolution; D003198:Computer Simulation; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005580:Fossils; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D010802:Phylogeny; D013997:Time Factors