title: Do implicit attitudes predict actual voting behavior particularly for undecided voters?
abstract: The prediction of voting behavior of undecided voters poses a challenge to psychologists and pollsters. Recently, researchers argued that implicit attitudes would predict voting behavior particularly for undecided voters whereas explicit attitudes would predict voting behavior particularly for decided voters. We tested this assumption in two studies in two countries with distinct political systems in the context of real political elections. Results revealed that (a) explicit attitudes predicted voting behavior better than implicit attitudes for both decided and undecided voters, and (b) implicit attitudes predicted voting behavior better for decided than undecided voters. We propose that greater elaboration of attitudes produces stronger convergence between implicit and explicit attitudes resulting in better predictive validity of both, and less incremental validity of implicit over explicit attitudes for the prediction of voting behavior. However, greater incremental predictive validity of implicit over explicit attitudes may be associated with less elaboration.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. malte.friese@unibas.ch
authors.forename: Malte
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Friese
authors.forename: Colin Tucker
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Plischke
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bluemke
authors.forename: Brian A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Nosek
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001290:Attitude; D001519:Behavior; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011057:Politics