title: Population shifts and the future of stroke: forecasts of the future burden of stroke.
abstract: Population distribution estimates by age and race/ethnicity from the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2010 and 2050 were combined with estimates of stroke incidence from population-based surveillance studies to forecast the distribution of incident stroke cases for the years 2010 and 2050. Over these 40 years, the number of incident strokes will more than double, with the majority of the increase among the elderly (age 75+) and minority groups (particularly Hispanics). These increases are likely to present major logistical, scientific, and ethnical issues in the near future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, UAB School of Public Health, Birmingham, Alabama, USA. ghoward@uab.edu
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Howard
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Goff
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D005006:Ethnicity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006285:Health Planning; D006291:Health Policy; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011157:Population Dynamics; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology