title: Validation of the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet and EuroSCORE at the Heart Institute - USP.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To validate the 2000 Bernstein Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the Heart Institute, University of São Paulo (InCor/HC-FMUSP).
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective observational design. We analyzed 3000 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery, between May 2007 and July 2009 at the InCor/HC-FMUSP. Mortality was calculated with the 2000BP and ES models. The correlation between estimated mortality and observed mortality was validated by calibration and discrimination tests.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors between the study population, 2000BP and ES. Patients were stratified into five groups for 2000BP and three for the ES. In the validation of models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0.596), however, the 2000BP (P = 0.047) proved inadequate. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve proved to be good for models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the validation, 2000BP proved questionable and ES appropriate to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the InCor/HC-FMUSP.
authors.affiliation: Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
authors.forename: Omar Asdrúbal Vilca
authors.initials: OA
authors.lastname: Mejía
authors.forename: Luiz Augusto Ferreira
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Lisboa
authors.forename: Luis Alberto Oliveira
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Dallan
authors.forename: Pablo Maria Alberto
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Pomerantzeff
authors.forename: Luiz Felipe Pinho
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: Moreira
authors.forename: Fabio Biscegli
authors.initials: FB
authors.lastname: Jatene
authors.forename: Noedir Antonio Groppo
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Stolf
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil; D002138:Calibration; D002300:Cardiac Care Facilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000401:mortality*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012016:Reference Values; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods