title: Stochastic fluctuations of the transmission rate in the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model.
abstract: We analyze the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model when the transmission rate displays Gaussian white noise fluctuations around its mean value. We obtain analytic expressions for the final size distribution of infectives and the mean infected number of individuals. The model displays a variety of noise-induced transitions as a function of the basic reproductive rate and the noise intensity. We derive a threshold criterion for epidemic invasion in the presence of external noise and determine the mean epidemic duration and the mean epidemic extinction time.
authors.affiliation: Grup de Física Estadística, Departament de Física, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Vicenç
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Méndez
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Campos
authors.forename: Werner
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Horsthemke
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004198:Disease Susceptibility / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013269:Stochastic Processes