title: A note on the aggregation of event probabilities.
abstract: In this article, multiple forecasts given as probabilities of events are aggregated using two assumptions: calibration and conditional independence. The forecasts are treated as data and the aggregation is based on Bayes's theorem. A measure of discrimination is given and the behavior of the aggregated posterior probability is examined as the number of forecasters grows without bound. The work is motivated by recent research efforts employing large numbers of individual forecasts.
authors.affiliation: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California, 3710 McClintock Ave. RTH 316, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA. Hora@USC.edu
authors.forename: Stephen C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Hora