title: Multicohort model for prevalence estimation of advanced malignant melanoma in the USA:  an increasing public health concern.
abstract: The aim of the study was to estimate the current prevalence of advanced cutaneous malignant melanoma in 2010 in the USA and to project prevalence estimates to the year 2015. An excel-based, multicohort natural disease history model was developed. It used incidence, recurrence, all-cause mortality, and US population data from the up-to-date surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program, the US census, and the literature. The prevalence was stratified by tumor stage, sex, and age. The model estimated that there were 800 735 malignant melanoma cases (258 per 100 000 individuals) in the USA in 2010, of which 10.4% were in advanced stages including stage III (22 per 100 000 individuals) and stage IV (four per 100 000 individuals). Among these advanced cases, 58.8% were men. In total, 42.1% of patients with advanced malignant melanoma were 65 years of age and older. Of these elderly patients with an advanced stage of the disease, 65.7% were men. The total number of cases and number of advanced cases were projected to increase from 2010 to 2015 by 24.4 and 21.0%, respectively. There will be approximately one million malignant melanoma cases (306 per 100 000 individuals) in the USA in 2015. The prevalence of advanced malignant melanoma is expected to increase in the next few years. Advanced malignant melanoma disproportionately affects men and the elderly in the USA.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Management and Policy, Drexel University School of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19102, USA. AYL28@drexel.edu
authors.forename: Amy Y
authors.initials: AY
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.forename: Peter F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Haojie
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Jennifer A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kolker
mesh_terms: D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008545:Melanoma / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D015995:Prevalence; D011634:Public Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012307:Risk Factors; D012878:Skin Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology