title: Predictability of the coherent-noise model and its applications.
abstract: We study the threshold distribution function of the coherent-noise model for the case of infinite number of agents. This function is piecewise constant with a finite number of steps n. The latter exhibits a 1/f behavior as a function of the order of occurrence of an avalanche and hence versus natural time. An analytic expression of the expectation value E(S) for the size S of the next avalanche is obtained and used for the prediction of the next avalanche. Apart from E(S), the number of steps n can also serve for this purpose. This enables the construction of a similar prediction scheme which can be applied to real earthquake aftershock data.
authors.affiliation: Solid State Section and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece. nsarlis@phys.uoa.gr
authors.forename: N V
authors.initials: NV
authors.lastname: Sarlis
authors.forename: S-R G
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Christopoulos