title: A more accurate method of predicting soft tissue changes after mandibular setback surgery.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To propose a more accurate method to predict the soft tissue changes after orthognathic surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  The subjects included 69 patients who had undergone surgical correction of Class III mandibular prognathism by mandibular setback. Two multivariate methods of forming prediction equations were examined using 134 predictor and 36 soft tissue response variables: the ordinary least-squares (OLS) and the partial least-squares (PLS) methods. After fitting the equation, the bias and a mean absolute prediction error were calculated. To evaluate the predictive performance of the prediction equations, a 10-fold cross-validation method was used.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The multivariate PLS method showed significantly better predictive performance than the conventional OLS method. The bias pattern was more favorable and the absolute prediction accuracy was significantly better with the PLS method than with the OLS method.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The multivariate PLS method was more satisfactory than the conventional OLS method in accurately predicting the soft tissue profile change after Class III mandibular setback surgery.
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthodontics, Seoul National University School of Dentistry and Dental Research Institute, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Hee-Yeon
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Suh
authors.forename: Shin-Jae
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Yun-Sik
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Richard E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Donatelli
authors.forename: Timothy T
authors.initials: TT
authors.lastname: Wheeler
authors.forename: Soo-Hwan
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Soo-Heang
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Eo
authors.forename: Byoung-Moo
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Seo
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D059925:Anatomic Landmarks / Q000473:pathology; D002508:Cephalometry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002680:Chin / Q000473:pathology; D005145:Face; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D063172:Genioplasty / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D007091:Image Processing, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods; D016018:Least-Squares Analysis; D008046:Lip / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008313:Malocclusion, Angle Class III / Q000601:surgery; D008334:Mandible / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D063168:Mandibular Osteotomy / Q000379:methods; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009666:Nose / Q000473:pathology; D056948:Orthognathic Surgical Procedures / Q000379:methods*; D059229:Osteotomy, Sagittal Split Ramus / Q000379:methods; D011378:Prognathism / Q000601:surgery; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012658:Sella Turcica / Q000473:pathology; D014716:Vertical Dimension; D055815:Young Adult