title: Environmental planning and management in an age of uncertainty: the case of the Water Framework Directive.
abstract: Scenario planning is one of the most prominent methods applied by organisations to assist long-term decision making. This paper uses a case study method to demonstrate how scenarios can be operationalised to inform future strategies and to challenge rigid silo-based decision making approaches. The WaterProof Northwest scenarios developed by the authors in collaboration with a range of stakeholders, and described within this paper, offer a platform for considering the future of the water environment. The scenarios were developed in the context of meeting the goals of the European Water Framework Directive. This Directive has the core aim of improving the chemical and ecological status of Europe's water bodies. The scenarios highlight that water bodies in the case study area (the region of Northwest England) are impacted directly by a wide array of driving forces which will affect the state of the water environment over the coming decades. This analysis demonstrates that organisations responsible for creating and implementing long-term plans and policies to manage water are often far removed from the forces that will influence the effectiveness of the exercises that they are engaged in. The WaterProof Northwest scenarios highlight that organisations need different decision making approaches in order to adapt to modern environmental challenges. They also raise questions over whether environmental legislation such as the Water Framework Directive should incorporate a futures perspective in recognition of the wide ranging forces influencing their implementation.
authors.affiliation: School of Environment and Development, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK. jeremy.carter@manchester.ac.uk
authors.forename: Jeremy G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Carter
authors.forename: Iain
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: White
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods; D003657:Decision Making; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D035501:Uncertainty