title: Calibrating parametric subject-specific risk estimation.
abstract: For modern evidence-based medicine, decisions on disease prevention or management strategies are often guided by a risk index system. For each individual, the system uses his/her baseline information to estimate the risk of experiencing a future disease-related clinical event. Such a risk scoring scheme is usually derived from an overly simplified parametric model. To validate a model-based procedure, one may perform a standard global evaluation via, for instance, a receiver operating characteristic analysis. In this article, we propose a method to calibrate the risk index system at a subject level. Specifically, we developed point and interval estimation procedures for t-year mortality rates conditional on the estimated parametric risk score. The proposals are illustrated with a dataset from a large clinical trial with post-myocardial infarction patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics ,  Harvard University ,  Boston, Massachusetts 02115 ,  U.S.A. tcai@hsph.harvard.edu.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.forename: Hajime
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Uno
authors.forename: Scott D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Solomon
authors.forename: L J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Wei