title: Short-term prediction of dynamical behavior of flame front instability induced by radiative heat loss.
abstract: We apply nonlinear forecasting to the time series of the flame front instability induced by radiative heat loss to test for the short-term predictability and long-term unpredictability characteristic of deterministic chaos in flame front instability. Our results indicate that the flame front instability represents high-dimensional chaos generated via the period-doubling cascade process reported in our previous study [H. Gotoda, K. Michigami, K. Ikeda, and T. Miyano, Combust Theory Modell. 14, 479 (2010)], while its short-term behavior is predictable using a local nonlinear predictor based on the Sugihara-May method [H. Gotoda, H. Nikimoto, T. Miyano, and S. Tachibana, Chaos 20, 013124 (2011); G. Sugihara and R. M. May, Nature 344, 734 (1990)] as well as a generalized radial basis function network as a global nonlinear predictor. The feasibility of a new approach based on short-term prediction is also discussed in this work from the practical viewpoint of combustion systems.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1 Nojihigashi, Kusatsu, Shiga 525-8577, Japan. gotoda@se.ritsumei.ac.jp
authors.forename: Hiroshi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Gotoda
authors.forename: Takuya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ikawa
authors.forename: Koshiro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Maki
authors.forename: Takaya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Miyano