title: Accuracy of the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management Scales (HCR-20) in predicting violence and other offenses in forensic psychiatric patients in Brazil.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Assessing the risk of violence is a complex task. In Latin America it is often based on clinical criteria that are not very objective or structured. HCR-20 has been used to increase the accuracy of this exam.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management Scales (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scale on a sample of Brazilian male forensic psychiatric inpatients.
  
  
  METHODS
  A concurrent prospective cohort design was used. The cohort was selected among the population of inpatients in Unit D (N=68) at Instituto Psiquiátrico Forense Mauricio Cardoso (IPF), Brazil. For the baseline assessment the following instruments: HCR-20-Assessing Risk for Violence, Version 2, and Hare Psychopathy Checklist, Revised (PCL-R) were used. During the one-year follow up, episodes of violent and/or anti-social behavior were assessed, and recorded on the Yudofsky's Overt Aggression Scale (OAS) and Tengström et al.'s Follow-Up Questionnaire. The accuracy of HCR-20 and PCL-R to predict violent and/or anti-social behavior was assessed.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For the whole cohort, the mean total score of PCL-R was 13.54 and of HCR-20 it was 23.32. The rate of recidivism in the twelve month follow up was 73.5%. Outstanding among the risk factors explored for their predictive efficacy are scale HCR-20 and subscale H for any event, and scale HCR-20 for a violent event. The predictive efficacy of scales HCR-20 and PCL-R was greater for any antisocial event than for a violent event. By taking into account the possibility of recidivism and the probability of recidivism accumulated over time, instruments HCR-20 and PCL-R behaved as expected. In all these explorations, the instruments significantly differentiated the group of the sample that recidivated earlier.
authors.affiliation: Mauricio Cardoso Forensic Psychiatric Institute, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil. lisieux@telles.med.br
authors.forename: Lisieux Elaine de Borba
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Telles
authors.forename: Jorge Oscar
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Folino
authors.forename: José Geraldo Vernet
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Taborda
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001938:Brazil; D057189:Checklist / Q000592:standards; D005544:Forecasting; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires / Q000592:standards*; D014754:Violence / Q000639:trends*