title: Prognosticating in patients with advanced cancer--observational study comparing the accuracy of clinicians' and patients' estimates of survival.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Clinicians' prognoses in patients with advanced cancer are imprecise. The aim of this study was to compare doctors', nurses' and patients' survival predictions and to identify factors which influence accuracy.
  
  
  METHODS
  Some 1018 patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Survival estimates were obtained from the attending doctor, nurse, multidisciplinary team (MDT) and patient (n = 829, 954, 987 and 290 estimates, respectively) and were compared with actual survival. Clinician and patient characteristics were recorded.
  
  
  RESULTS
  MDTs', doctors' and nurses' predictions were accurate 57.5%, 56.3% and 55.5% of occasions, respectively. Nurses were less accurate than the MDT (P = 0.007) but were no worse than doctors (P = 0.284). Estimates of clinicians and patients were more optimistic (doctors: 31%; nurses: 34%; MDT: 31.1%; patients: 45.1%) than pessimistic (12.7%, 11%, 11.4% and 2.7%). Nurses' accuracy increased if they had reviewed the patient within 24 h. Most patients (61.4%) wanted to know their prognosis. Only 37.1% were willing to offer an estimate regarding their own survival. Patients' prognostic estimates were less accurate than health care professionals' (P < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  MDTs were better at predicting survival than doctors' or nurses' alone. Patients were substantially worse. Among nurses, recency of review was related to improved prognostic accuracy.
authors.affiliation: Division of Population, Health Sciences and Education, St George's, University of London, London.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Gwilliam
authors.affiliation: Department of Palliative Medicine, Royal Derby Hospital, Derby.
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Keeley
authors.affiliation: School of Nursing, Midwifery and Social Work, University of Manchester and Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, Manchester.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Todd
authors.affiliation: Health Methodology Research Group, School of Community-Based Medicine, The University of Manchester and Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Roberts
authors.affiliation: Health Methodology Research Group, School of Community-Based Medicine, The University of Manchester and Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gittins
authors.affiliation: Department of Palliative Medicine, East Surrey Hospital, Redhill.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kelly
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Barclay
authors.affiliation: Division of Population, Health Sciences and Education, St George's, University of London, London. Electronic address: pstone@sgul.ac.uk.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Stone
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D010166:Palliative Care; D011379:Prognosis; D015996:Survival Rate; D013727:Terminal Care