title: Objective estimates of the probability of death in acute burn injury: a proposed Taiwan burn score.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  This study aimed to develop an objective model for predicting mortality after burn injury in Taiwan.
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1997 to 2010, 23,147 patients with acute burn injury in 44 hospitals were retrospectively reviewed. Variables examined were age, sex, depth and extent of burn, inhalation injury, flushing time, hospital admission and referral status, intensive care unit admission, and mortality. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate risk factors. Model performance and calibration was evaluated by measures of discrimination and goodness-of-fit statistic, respectively. A nomogram of four major risk factors was used to calculate the probability of mortality.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Only 22,665 patients (mean [SD] age, 31.05 [22.67] years; mean second-degree and third-degree burn sizes, 8.67% [10.64%] and 3.25% [10.91%], respectively) survived until discharge, for a mortality rate of 2.08%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Burn depth is an important predictive factor for mortality. An objective model can help estimate the probability of death in acute burn injury.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prognostic study, level II.
authors.affiliation: Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital and National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chen-Chien
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Li-Ching
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Bor-Shyh
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.forename: Shih-Hao
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Hsu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ma
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002056:Burns / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D002059:Burns, Inhalation / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult