title: Positive predictive value of prostate biopsy indicated by prostate-specific-antigen-based prostate cancer screening: trends over time in a European randomized trial*.
abstract: Study Type--Diagnosis (validating cohort) Level of Evidence 1b. What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? The European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) showed a reduction in prostate cancer mortality of 21% for PSA-based screening at a median follow-up of 11 years. In the ERSPC, men are screened at 4-year intervals. A prostate biopsy is recommended for men with a PSA level ≥ 3.0 ng/mL. The study shows that the positive predictive value (PPV) of a prostate biopsy indicated by PSA-based screening remains equal throughout consecutive screening rounds in men without a previous biopsy. In men who have previously had a benign biopsy, the PPV drops considerably, but 20% of the cancers detected still show aggressive characteristics.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  • To assess the positive predictive value (PPV) of prostate biopsy, indicated by a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) threshold of ≥ 3.0 ng/mL, over time, in the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC).
  
  
  METHODS
  • In the Rotterdam section of the ERSPC, a total of 42,376 participants, aged 55-74 years, identified from population registries were randomly assigned to a screening or control arm. • For the ERSPC men undergo PSA screening at 4-year intervals. A total of three screening rounds were evaluated; therefore, only men aged 55-69 years at the first screening were eligible for the present study.
  
  
  RESULTS
  • PPVs for men without previous biopsy remained equal throughout the three subsequent screenings (25.5, 22.3 and 24.8% respectively). • Conversely, PPVs for men with a previous negative biopsy dropped significantly (12.0 and 15.2% at the second and third screening, respectively). • Additionally, in men with and without previous biopsy, the percentage of aggressive prostate cancers (clinical stage >T2b, Gleason score ≥ 7) decreased after the first round of screening from 44.4 to 23.8% in the second (P < 0.001) and 18.6% in the third round (P < 0.001). • Repeat biopsies accounted for 24.6% of all biopsies, but yielded only 8.6% of all aggressive cancers.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  • In consecutive screening rounds the PPV of PSA-based screening remains equal in previously unbiopsied men. • In men with a previous negative biopsy the PPV drops considerably, but 20% of cancers detected still show aggressive characteristics. • Individualized screening algorithms should incorporate previous biopsy status in the decision to perform a repeat biopsy with the aim of further reducing unnecessary biopsies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. l.bokhorst@erasmusmc.nl
authors.forename: Leonard P
authors.initials: LP
authors.lastname: Bokhorst
authors.forename: Xiaoye
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.forename: Meelan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bul
authors.forename: Chris H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Bangma
authors.forename: Fritz H
authors.initials: FH
authors.lastname: Schröder
authors.forename: Monique J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Roobol
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D001706:Biopsy / Q000379:methods; D055088:Early Detection of Cancer / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011467:Prostate / Q000473:pathology*; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology*; D019233:Retreatment; D047368:Tumor Burden
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen