title: A dynamic analysis of motorcycle ownership and usage: a panel data modeling approach.
abstract: This study aims to develop motorcycle ownership and usage models with consideration of the state dependence and heterogeneity effects based on a large-scale questionnaire panel survey on vehicle owners. To account for the independence among alternatives and heterogeneity among individuals, the modeling structure of motorcycle ownership adopts disaggregate choice models considering the multinomial, nested, and mixed logit formulations. Three types of panel data regression models--ordinary, fixed, and random effects--are developed and compared for motorcycle usage. The estimation results show that motorcycle ownership in the previous year does exercise a significantly positive effect on the number of motorcycles owned by households in the current year, suggesting that the state dependence effect does exist in motorcycle ownership decisions. In addition, the fixed effects model is the preferred specification for modeling motorcycle usage, indicating strong evidence for existence of heterogeneity. Among various management strategies evaluated under different scenarios, increasing gas prices and parking fees will lead to larger reductions in total kilometers traveled.
authors.affiliation: Department of Transportation Technology and Management, Feng Chia University, 100 Wenhua Road, Taichung 40724, Taiwan, ROC. chwen@fcu.edu.tw
authors.forename: Chieh-Hua
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.forename: Yu-Chiun
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: Chiou
authors.forename: Wan-Ling
authors.initials: WL
authors.lastname: Huang
mesh_terms: D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002755:Choice Behavior; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009049:Motorcycles / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D010067:Ownership / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012042:Registries; D012044:Regression Analysis; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013624:Taiwan