title: Malaria risk mapping for control in the republic of Sudan.
abstract: Evidence shows that malaria risk maps are rarely tailored to address national control program ambitions. Here, we generate a malaria risk map adapted for malaria control in Sudan. Community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data from 2000 to 2010 were assembled and were standardized to 2-10 years of age (PfPR(2-10)). Space-time Bayesian geostatistical methods were used to generate a map of malaria risk for 2010. Surfaces of aridity, urbanization, irrigation schemes, and refugee camps were combined with the PfPR(2-10) map to tailor the epidemiological stratification for appropriate intervention design. In 2010, a majority of the geographical area of the Sudan had risk of < 1% PfPR(2-10). Areas of meso- and hyperendemic risk were located in the south. About 80% of Sudan's population in 2011 was in the areas in the desert, urban centers, or where risk was < 1% PfPR(2-10). Aggregated data suggest reducing risks in some high transmission areas since the 1960s.
authors.forename: Abdisalan M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Noor
authors.forename: Khalid A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: ElMardi
authors.forename: Tarig M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Abdelgader
authors.forename: Anand P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Patil
authors.forename: Ahmed A A
authors.initials: AAA
authors.lastname: Amine
authors.forename: Sahar
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bakhiet
authors.forename: Maowia M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Mukhtar
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Snow
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003710:Demography; D006801:Humans; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013397:Sudan / Q000453:epidemiology