A 323-year long reconstruction of drought for SW Romania based on black pine (Pinus Nigra) tree-ring widths.
Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation pose a major future challenge for sustainable ecosystem management in Romania. To understand ecosystem response and the wider social consequences of environmental change, we constructed a 396-year long (1615-2010) drought sensitive tree-ring width chronology (TRW) of Pinus nigra var. banatica (Georg. et Ion.) growing on steep slopes and shallow organic soil. We established a statistical relationship between TRW and two meteorological parameters-monthly sum of precipitation (PP) and standardised precipitation index (SPI). PP and SPI correlate significantly with TRW (r = 0.54 and 0.58) and are stable in time. Rigorous statistical tests, which measure the accuracy and prediction ability of the model, were all significant. SPI was eventually reconstructed back to 1688, with extreme dry and wet years identified using the percentile method. By means of reconstruction, we identified two so far unknown extremely dry years in Romania--1725 and 1782. Those 2 years are almost as dry as 1946, which was known as the "year of great famine." Since no historical documents for these 2 years were available in local archives, we compared the results with those from neighbouring countries and discovered that both years were extremely dry in the wider region (Slovakia, Hungary, Anatolia, Syria, and Turkey). While the 1800-1900 period was relatively mild, with only two moderately extreme years as far as weather is concerned, the 1900-2009 period was highly salient owing to the very high number of wet and dry extremes--five extremely wet and three extremely dry events (one of them in 1946) were identified.
Slovenian Forestry Institute, Večna Pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia. tom.levanic@gozdis.si
Tom
T
Levanič
Ionel
I
Popa
Simon
S
Poljanšek
Constantin
C
Nechita
D003198:Computer Simulation; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D055864:Droughts / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D017753:Ecosystem; D015233:Models, Statistical; D028223:Pinus / Q000033:anatomy & histology* / Q000254:growth & development*; D011891:Rain; D012621:Seasons; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014421:Turkey