Prediction of recovery, dependence or death in elders who become disabled during hospitalization.
BACKGROUND
Many older adults become dependent in one or more activities of daily living (ADLs: dressing, bathing, transferring, eating, toileting) when hospitalized, and their prognosis after discharge is unclear.


OBJECTIVE
To develop a prognostic index to estimate one-year probabilities of recovery, dependence or death in older hospitalized patients who are discharged with incident ADL dependence.


METHODS
Retrospective cohort study.


METHODS
449 adults aged ≥ 70 years hospitalized for acute illness and discharged with incident ADL dependence.


METHODS
Potential predictors included demographics (age, sex, race, education, marital status), functional measures (ADL dependencies, instrumental activities of daily living [IADL] dependencies, walking ability), chronic conditions (e.g., congestive heart failure, dementia, cancer), reason for admission (e.g., neurologic, cardiovascular), and laboratory values (creatinine, albumin, hematocrit). Multinomial logistic regression was used to develop a prognostic index for estimating the probabilities of recovery, disability or death over 1 year. Discrimination of the index was assessed for each outcome based on the c statistic.


RESULTS
During the year following hospitalization, 36 % of patients recovered, 27 % remained dependent and 37 % died. Key predictors of recovery, dependence or death were age, sex, number of IADL dependencies 2 weeks prior to admission, number of ADL dependencies at discharge, dementia, cancer, number of other chronic conditions, reason for admission, and creatinine levels. The final prognostic index had good to excellent discrimination for all three outcomes based on the c statistic (recovery: 0.81, dependence: 0.72, death: 0.78).


CONCLUSIONS
This index accurately estimated the probabilities of recovery, dependence or death in adults aged 70 years or older who were discharged with incident disability following hospitalization. This tool may be useful in clinical settings to guide care discussions and inform decision-making related to post-hospitalization care.
University of California, San Francisco, USA. Deborah.barnes@ucsf.edu
Deborah E
DE
Barnes
Kala M
KM
Mehta
W John
WJ
Boscardin
Richard H
RH
Fortinsky
Robert M
RM
Palmer
Katharine A
KA
Kirby
C Seth
CS
Landefeld
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000208:Acute Disease / Q000401:mortality / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010351:Patient Discharge; D010359:Patient Readmission; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D014481:United States