title: On the basic reproduction number in a random environment.
abstract: The concept of basic reproduction number R0 in population dynamics is studied in the case of random environments. For simplicity the dependence between successive environments is supposed to follow a Markov chain. R0 is the spectral radius of a next-generation operator. Its position with respect to 1 always determines population growth or decay in simulations, unlike another parameter suggested in a recent article (Hernandez-Suarez et al., Theor Popul Biol, doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2012.05.004 , 2012). The position of the latter with respect to 1 determines growth or decay of the population's expectation. R0 is easily computed in the case of scalar population models without any structure. The main emphasis is on discrete-time models but continuous-time models are also considered.
authors.affiliation: Research group UMMISCO, IRD and University Paris 6, Paris, France, nicolas.bacaer@ird.fr.
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Bacaër
authors.forename: Mohamed
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Khaladi
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics