title: Characterizing the next-generation matrix and basic reproduction number in ecological epidemiology.
abstract: We address the interaction of ecological processes, such as consumer-resource relationships and competition, and the epidemiology of infectious diseases spreading in ecosystems. Modelling such interactions seems essential to understand the dynamics of infectious agents in communities consisting of interacting host and non-host species. We show how the usual epidemiological next-generation matrix approach to characterize invasion into multi-host communities can be extended to calculate R₀, and how this relates to the ecological community matrix. We then present two simple examples to illustrate this approach. The first of these is a model of the rinderpest, wildebeest, grass interaction, where our inferred dynamics qualitatively matches the observed phenomena that occurred after the eradication of rinderpest from the Serengeti ecosystem in the 1980s. The second example is a prey-predator system, where both species are hosts of the same pathogen. It is shown that regions for the parameter values exist where the two host species are only able to coexist when the pathogen is present to mediate the ecological interaction.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, and Infectious Disease Research Centre, Massey University, Private Bag 102904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. m.g.roberts@massey.ac.nz
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Roberts
authors.forename: J A P
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002020:Buffaloes / Q000382:microbiology; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D006801:Humans; D008045:Lions / Q000382:microbiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D006109:Poaceae / Q000254:growth & development; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011235:Predatory Behavior; D012301:Rinderpest / Q000453:epidemiology; D012418:Ruminants / Q000821:virology; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology