title: Risk trade-offs in fish consumption: a public health perspective.
abstract: Fish consumption advisories instruct vulnerable consumers to avoid high mercury fish and to limit total fish intake to reduce neurotoxic risk. Consumption data from the U.S. suggest that nontarget consumers also respond to such advice. These consumers reduce exposure to mercury and other toxicants at the cost of reduction in cardioprotective fatty acids. We present a probabilistic model to assess these risk trade-offs. We use NHANES consumption data to simulate exposure to contaminants and nutrients in fish, employ dose-response relationships to convert exposure to health end points, and monetize them using benefit transfer. Our results suggest that newborns gained on average 0.033 IQ points from their mothers' compliance with the prominent FDA/EPA advisory. The welfare gain for a birth cohort is estimated at $386 million. This gain could be fully offset by increments in cardiovascular risk if 0.6% of consumers aged 40 and older reduced fish intake by one monthly meal until they reached the age of 60 or if 0.1% of them permanently reduced fish intake.
authors.affiliation: LERNA-INRA, Toulouse School of Economics, 1 Rue des Amidonniers, 31000 Toulouse, France. crheinbe@toulouse.inra.fr
authors.forename: Christoph M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Rheinberger
authors.forename: James K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Hammitt
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000818:Animals; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004147:Dioxins / Q000633:toxicity; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000633:toxicity*; D015525:Fatty Acids, Omega-3 / Q000378:metabolism; D005260:Female; D005399:Fishes; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000032:analysis*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008767:Methylmercury Compounds / Q000633:toxicity; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000139:chemically induced; D009422:Nervous System Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced; D009749:Nutrition Surveys; D011634:Public Health / Q000191:economics; D018570:Risk Assessment; D017747:Seafood / Q000032:analysis*; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D004147:Dioxins; D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D015525:Fatty Acids, Omega-3; D008767:Methylmercury Compounds