title: Assessment of the risk of a bluetongue outbreak in Europe caused by Culicoides midges introduced through intracontinental transport and trade networks.
abstract: The importation of infected hosts and the arrival of windborne infected Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were considered unlikely mechanisms for bluetongue virus (BTV) incursion into a BTV-free area during the recent BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in northern Europe. Therefore, alternative mechanisms need to be considered. Air, sea and land transport networks continue to expand, and an important consequence of this is vector-borne pathogen importation. One important aspect of bluetongue (BT) epidemiology not yet addressed is the potential movement of infected Culicoides via transport and trade networks. Therefore, a risk assessment model was constructed to assess the probability of a BTV outbreak as a consequence of the introduction of Culicoides via these networks. The model was applied to calculate the risk for a BTV-8 epidemic in Spain in 2007 caused by the introduction of Culicoides from affected northern European countries. The mean weighted annual risk for an outbreak caused by transportation of a single vector from an affected northern European country varied from 1.8 × 10(-7) to 3.0 × 10(-13), with the highest risks associated with Culicoides imported from Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France. For this mechanism to pose a significant risk to BTV-free countries, a large number of vectors would have to be transported.
authors.affiliation: Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentáries (UAB-IRTA), Barcelona, Spain. sebastian.napp@cresa.uab.es
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Napp
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: García-Bocanegra
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Pagès
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Allepuz
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Alba
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Casal
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000502:physiology*; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000821:virology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012756:Sheep; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014186:Transportation