title: Anticipating critical transitions.
abstract: Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Post Office Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl
authors.forename: Marten
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Scheffer
authors.forename: Stephen R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Carpenter
authors.forename: Timothy M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Lenton
authors.forename: Jordi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bascompte
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Brock
authors.forename: Vasilis
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Dakos
authors.forename: Johan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: van de Koppel
authors.forename: Ingrid A
authors.initials: IA
authors.lastname: van de Leemput
authors.forename: Simon A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Levin
authors.forename: Egbert H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: van Nes
authors.forename: Mercedes
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pascual
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Vandermeer
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*