title: Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity: challenges and opportunities.
abstract: Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series--lack of physical boundaries, uni-dimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality--that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions.
authors.affiliation: Scottish Oceans Institute and Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, East Sands, KY16 8LB, UK. maadd@st-andrews.ac.uk
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Dornelas
authors.forename: Anne E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Magurran
authors.forename: Stephen T
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Buckland
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chao
authors.forename: Robin L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Chazdon
authors.forename: Robert K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Colwell
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Curtis
authors.forename: Kevin J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Gaston
authors.forename: Nicholas J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Gotelli
authors.forename: Matthew A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Kosnik
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: McGill
authors.forename: Jenny L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: McCune
authors.forename: Hélène
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Morlon
authors.forename: Peter J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Mumby
authors.forename: Lise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ovreås
authors.forename: Angelika
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Studeny
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vellend
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D010944:Plants; D013997:Time Factors