title: One-year clinical prediction in Chinese ischemic stroke patients using the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores: the China National Stroke Registry.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We investigated whether CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores could be used to predict 1-year prognosis in stroke recurrence, mortality, and mortality of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients were selected from a national prospective registry in China. The clinical prediction of the scores was examined using the C statistic. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to analyze the relevant risk factors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Thousand two hundred and ninety-seven of 22,216 patients were enrolled in the study. For stroke recurrence rate, the C statistic value was 0.53 (odds ratio [OR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01 to 1.32) for CHADS2 and 0.55 (OR 1.14, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.24) for CHA2DS2-VASc; adding baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score to these two scores, the value of C statistic was 0.58 (OR 1.25 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.37) and 0.58 (OR 1.19, 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.27), respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Both CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores have limitations in predicting the 1-year prognosis of stroke/TIA patients with NVAF in China. The predictive value of these two scores improved by adding the baseline NIHSS score.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shu-Ya
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Xing-Quan
authors.initials: XQ
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.forename: Chun-Xue
authors.initials: CX
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Li-Ping
authors.initials: LP
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Gai-Fen
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Yi-Long
authors.initials: YL
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Yong-Jun
authors.initials: YJ
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000150:complications; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D002546:Ischemic Attack, Transient / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012042:Registries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D057566:Self Report; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D020521:Stroke / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015996:Survival Rate; D014812:Vitamin K / Q000037:antagonists & inhibitors
chemical_list: D014812:Vitamin K