title: Sex offender treatment outcome, actuarial risk, and the aging sex offender in Canadian corrections: a long-term follow-up.
abstract: The present study is an examination of sex offender treatment outcome in a large national cohort of Canadian Federally incarcerated sex offenders followed up an average of 11.7 years postrelease. A brief actuarial risk scale (BARS), which predicted sexual and violent recidivism, was created for the purposes of the present study to control for risk-related differences between treated and untreated offenders. In total, 732 offenders were identified as having completed (n = 625) or not attended (n = 107) a sex offender treatment program and for whom sufficient information was available to complete the scale. Controlling for risk and individual differences in follow-up time using Cox regression survival analyses and an 8-year fixed follow-up period, treated sex offenders demonstrated significantly lower rates of violent, but not sexual, recidivism. When the treated and untreated groups were stratified by risk level, significant differences were observed only among moderate or high risk offenders. Some significant group differences also emerged on indicators of recidivism severity, with treated offenders demonstrating slower times to sexual reoffense and lower scores on a quantified metric of sexual and violent recidivism severity after controlling for risk. Differences in recidivism base rates between treated and untreated offenders were also larger in magnitude for younger offenders (i.e., under age 50 at release), than for older offenders; however, interactions between age and treatment were not found. The findings are consistent with the risk principle and have possible implications regarding the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk.
authors.affiliation: University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. mark.olver@usask.ca
authors.forename: Mark E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Olver
authors.forename: Terry P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Nicholaichuk
authors.forename: Deqiang
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gu
authors.forename: Stephen C P
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Wong
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D002170:Canada; D057237:Criminals / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D012008:Recurrence; D012306:Risk; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
keywords: actuarial risk; age; recidivism; sex offender treatment outcome