title: A predictive model of Vibrio cholerae for combined temperature and organic nutrient in aquatic environments.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a predictive model for Vibrio cholerae in sea water.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The growth curves of V. cholerae NE-9 at different temperatures (range from 10 to 30°C) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentration (range from 5 to 40 mg l(-1) ) were determined. The modified logistic model and Baranyi model were chosen to regress the growth curves. A new method for modelling effects of temperature and COD on the specific growth rate (μ) was successfully developed by a combination of modified square root-type equation and saturation growth rate model. The coefficient of determination (R(2) ), bias factor (Bf) and accuracy factor (Af) were taken to assess the performance of the established model. Logistic model produced a good fit to the observed data (R(2) = 0.952). However, the Baranyi model provided biologically plausible parameter estimates. The overall predictions for V. cholerae NE-9 growth agreed well with observed plate counts, and the average R(2) , Bf and Af values were 0.967, 1.198 and 1.201, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The predicted model agreed well with observed data, and the result can be applied for the prediction of V. cholerae in actual environments.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of this study provide the basis for the prediction of V. cholerae in sea water.
authors.affiliation: Nanchang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang, China. fusongzhe@hotmail.com
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fu
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D057919:Biological Oxygen Demand Analysis; D016015:Logistic Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D012623:Seawater / Q000382:microbiology*; D013696:Temperature; D014734:Vibrio cholerae / Q000254:growth & development*