title: A literature-based approach to evaluate the predictive capacity of a marker using time-dependent summary receiver operating characteristics.
abstract: Meta-analyses are popular tools to summarize the results of publications. Prognostic performances of a marker are usually summarized by meta-analyses of survival curves or hazard ratios. These approaches may detect a difference in survival according to the marker but do not allow evaluation of its prognostic capacity. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves evaluate the ability of a marker to predict time-to-event. In this article, we describe an adaptation of time-dependent summary receiver operating characteristic curves from published survival curves. To achieve this goal, we modeled the marker and the time-to-event distributions using non-linear mixed models. First, we applied this methodology to individual data in kidney transplantation presented as aggregated data, in order to validate the method. Second, we re-analyzed a published meta-analysis, which focused on the capacity of KI-67 to predict the overall survival of patients with breast cancer.
authors.affiliation: Division of Clinical Epidemiology, University Hospital of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland Center of Clinical Research, University of Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Combescure
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Institut Universitaire de Recherche Clinique, France.
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Daures
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, EA4275, Clinical Research and Subjective Measures in Health Sciences, ITERT & Inserm U643, Nantes University, Nantes, France Yohann.Foucher@univ-nantes.fr.
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Foucher
mesh_terms: D015415:Biomarkers / Q000032:analysis*; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000032:analysis; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000378:metabolism / Q000473:pathology; D006801:Humans; D019394:Ki-67 Antigen / Q000032:analysis; D016030:Kidney Transplantation; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D016019:Survival Analysis
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor; D019394:Ki-67 Antigen
keywords: Meta-analyses; prognostic marker; time-dependent ROC curve