title: Weather-driven variation in dengue activity in Australia examined using a process-based modeling approach.
abstract: The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991-2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia.
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, and Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. melanie.bt@gmail.com
authors.forename: Melanie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bannister-Tyrrell
authors.forename: Craig
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Scott A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Ritchie
authors.forename: Gina
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Rau
authors.forename: Janette
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lindesay
authors.forename: Geoff
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mercer
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Harley
mesh_terms: D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D011793:Queensland / Q000453:epidemiology; D014887:Weather