title: [Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of São Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study].
abstract: The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in São Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with São Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata.IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In São Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in São Paulo .
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, 01246-903 São Paulo, SP. mftperes@usp.br
authors.forename: Maria Fernanda Tourinho
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Peres
authors.forename: Juliana Feliciano
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: de Almeida
authors.forename: Diego
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Vicentin
authors.forename: Caren
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ruotti
authors.forename: Marcelo Batista
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Nery
authors.forename: Magdalena
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cerda
authors.forename: Nancy
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Cardia
authors.forename: Sérgio
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Adorno
mesh_terms: D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002947:Cities; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D012637:Security Measures / Q000639:trends*; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D014505:Urban Population