title: Crying wolf? Impact of the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic on anticipated public response to a future pandemic.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine changes in public threat perception and anticipated compliance with health-protective behaviours in response to a future pandemic; using data collected before and after the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic.
  
  
  METHODS
  Repeat cross-sectional computer-assisted telephone surveys with representative samples of the general New South Wales population in 2007 (2081 participants) and 2010 (2038 participants).
  
  
  METHODS
  Perceived likelihood of a future pandemic in Australia; concern that respondents or their families would be affected; degree of change made to life because of the possibility of a pandemic; and willingness to comply with health-protective behaviours (to be vaccinated, to be isolated if necessary, and to wear a face mask).
  
  
  RESULTS
  In 2007, 14.9% of the general population considered that an influenza pandemic would be highly likely to occur in future; this proportion rose to 42.8% in 2010 (odds ratio [OR], 4.96; 95% CI, 3.99-6.16; P < 0.001). Conversely, in the same period concern that respondents or their families would be directly affected by a future pandemic dropped from 45.5% to 32.5% (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.44-0.74; P < 0.001). Willingness to be vaccinated against influenza in a future pandemic decreased from 75.4% to 64.6% (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.86; P < 0.001). A general decrease in willingness to be vaccinated was noted across all age groups, most notably for those aged 35-44 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Data collected before and after the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic indicated significant shifts in public threat perception and anticipated response to a future pandemic. The H1N1 2009 pandemic has altered public perceptions of the probability of a pandemic in the future, but has left the public feeling less vulnerable. Shifts in perception have the potential to reduce future public compliance with health-protective measures, including critical elements of the public health response, such as vaccination.
authors.affiliation: School of Medicine, University of Western Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia. melanie.taylor@uws.edu.au
authors.forename: Melanie R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.forename: Garry J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Stevens
authors.forename: Kingsley E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Agho
authors.forename: Sheree A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Kable
authors.forename: Beverley
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Raphael
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D008875:Middle Aged; D009517:New South Wales; D058873:Pandemics; D010342:Patient Acceptance of Health Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011634:Public Health; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014611:Vaccination