title: Predicting temporal trends in sickness absence rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether trends of sickness in employees at a federal agency are predictable, and whether the variance was minimal enough to detect unusual levels of employee illness for further investigation.
  
  
  METHODS
  Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of sickness absence. Specifically, week of year and day of week were used to describe temporal trends.
  
  
  RESULTS
  This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absence trends due to sickness among employees at a federal agency. Trends follow regular patterns during a given year that correspond to seasonal illnesses. Temporal trends in sick leave have been proven to be very predictable.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The minimal variance allows the detection of sick leave anomalies that may be ascribable to specific causes, allowing the business or agency to follow-up and develop interventions.
authors.affiliation: Office of Safety, Health, and Environment, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. ava3@cdc.gov
authors.forename: D Ross
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Spears
authors.forename: Carrie
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: McNeil
authors.forename: Eli
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Warnock
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Trapp
authors.forename: Oluremi
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Oyinloye
authors.forename: Vanessa
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Whitehurst
authors.forename: K C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Decker
authors.forename: Sandy
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chapman
authors.forename: Morris
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Campbell
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Meechan
mesh_terms: D000041:Absenteeism; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D012621:Seasons; D018582:Sick Leave / Q000639:trends*; D014481:United States; D014483:United States Dept. of Health and Human Services / Q000639:trends*