title: Cardiovascular risk assessment of pulmonary embolism with the GRACE risk score.
abstract: Despite the existence of several risk scores, the accurate prediction of the prognosis in pulmonary embolism (PE) remains a challenge. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score has a high diagnostic performance for adverse outcomes in acute coronary syndrome. We aimed to assess the applicability and extend the use of the GRACE risk score to PE. A case-control study of 206 consecutive patients admitted with PE was performed. The GRACE, Geneva, Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, Shock Index, and European Society of Cardiology risk scores were tested for the prediction of the primary end point: all-cause 30-day mortality. Comparisons between GRACE and the other risk scores were performed using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve and the integrated discrimination improvement index. All-cause 30-day mortality was observed in 18.9% of the patients. Unlike the other classifications, no adverse outcomes were observed in patients classified as low risk using the GRACE risk score (100% negative predictive value for GRACE risk score ≤113). The GRACE score showed greater discriminative performance than the Geneva score (area under the curve 0.623, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53 to 0.71), Shock Index (area under the curve 0.639, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.73), European Society of Cardiology (area under the curve 0.662, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.76), and Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (area under the curve 0.705, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.80), although statistical significance was not reached. The integrated discrimination improvement index suggested a more appropriate risk classification with the GRACE score. In conclusion, our results have demonstrated that the GRACE risk score can accurately predict 30-day mortality in patients admitted for acute PE. Compared to previously proposed PE prediction rules, the GRACE risk score presented improved overall risk classification.
authors.affiliation: Coimbra's Hospital Centre and University, Portugal. luisvpaiva@gmail.com
authors.forename: Luis V
authors.initials: LV
authors.lastname: Paiva
authors.forename: Rui C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Providencia
authors.forename: Sergio N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Barra
authors.forename: Ana C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Faustino
authors.forename: Ana M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Botelho
authors.forename: António L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Marques
mesh_terms: D054058:Acute Coronary Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D011174:Portugal / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011655:Pulmonary Embolism / Q000145:classification* / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D012372:ROC Curve; D012042:Registries; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends