title: Matrix to predict rapid radiographic progression of early rheumatoid arthritis patients from the community treated with methotrexate or leflunomide: results from the ESPOIR cohort.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients may show rapid radiographic progression (RRP) despite rapid initiation of synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). The present study aimed to develop a matrix to predict risk of RRP despite early DMARD initiation in real life settings.
  
  
  METHODS
  The ESPOIR cohort included 813 patients from the community with early arthritis for < 6 months; 370 patients had early RA and had received methotrexate or leflunomide during the first year of follow-up. RRP was defined as an increase in the van der Heijde-modified Sharp score (vSHS) ≥ 5 points at 1 year. Determinants of RRP were examined first by bivariate analysis, then multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. A visual matrix model was then developed to predict RRP in terms of patient baseline characteristics.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We analyzed data for 370 patients. The mean Disease Activity Score in 28 joints was 5.4 ± 1.2, 18.1% of patients had typical RA erosion on radiographs and 86.4% satisfied the 2010 criteria of the American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism. During the first year, mean change in vSHS was 1.6 ± 5.5, and 41 patients (11.1%) showed RRP. A multivariate logistic regression model enabled the development of a matrix predicting RRP in terms of baseline swollen joint count, C-reactive protein level, anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies status, and erosions seen on radiography for patients with early RA who received DMARDs.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The ESPOIR matrix may be a useful clinical practice tool to identify patients with early RA at high risk of RRP despite early DMARD initiation.
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Fautrel
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Granger
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Combe
authors.forename: Alain
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Saraux
authors.forename: Francis
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Guillemin
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Le Loet
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D018501:Antirheumatic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D001172:Arthritis, Rheumatoid / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000188:drug therapy*; D001323:Autoantibodies / Q000276:immunology; D002097:C-Reactive Protein / Q000378:metabolism; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007555:Isoxazoles / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D000077339:Leflunomide; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008727:Methotrexate / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D010456:Peptides, Cyclic / Q000276:immunology; D011379:Prognosis; D011859:Radiography
chemical_list: D018501:Antirheumatic Agents; D001323:Autoantibodies; D007555:Isoxazoles; D010456:Peptides, Cyclic; C487763:cyclic citrullinated peptide; D002097:C-Reactive Protein; D000077339:Leflunomide; D008727:Methotrexate