title: Can we predict 4-year graduation in podiatric medical school using admission data?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  This study examined the predictive ability of educational background and demographic variables, available at the admission stage, to identify applicants who will graduate in 4 years from podiatric medical school.
  
  
  METHODS
  A logistic regression model was used to identify two predictors of 4-year graduation: age at matriculation and total Medical College Admission Test score. The model was cross-validated using a second independent sample from the same population. Cross-validation gives greater confidence that the results could be more generally applied.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Total Medical College Admission Test score was the strongest predictor of 4-year graduation, with age at matriculation being a statistically significant but weaker predictor.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Despite the model's capacity to predict 4-year graduation better than random assignment, a sufficient amount of error in prediction remained, suggesting that important predictors are missing from the model. Furthermore, the high rate of false-positives makes it inappropriate to use age and Medical College Admission Test score as admission screens in an attempt to eliminate attrition by not accepting at-risk students.
authors.affiliation: Barry University School of Podiatric Medicine, Miami Shores, FL 33161, USA. ssesodia@mail.barry.edu
authors.forename: Sanjay
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sesodia
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Molnar
authors.forename: Graham P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Shaw
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003099:College Admission Test / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004504:Education, Medical, Undergraduate / Q000592:standards*; D004521:Educational Measurement / Q000379:methods*; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011032:Podiatry / Q000193:education*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012570:School Admission Criteria / Q000639:trends*; D012577:Schools, Medical; D013337:Students, Medical; D014481:United States