title: Potential impacts of climate variability on dengue hemorrhagic fever in Honduras, 2010.
abstract: Climate change and variability are affecting human health and disease direct   or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one of those diseases that is strongly   influenced by climate variability; however its study in Central America has been poorly   approached. In this study, we assessed potential associations between macroclimatic   and microclimatic variation and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in the main   hospital of Honduras during 2010. In this year, 3,353 cases of DHF were reported in the   Hospital Escuela, Tegucigalpa. Climatic periods marked a difference of 158% in the mean   incidence of cases, from El Niño weeks (-99% of cases below the mean incidence) to La   Niña months (+59% of cases above it) (p<0.01). Linear regression showed significantly   higher dengue incidence with lower values of Oceanic Niño Index (p=0.0097), higher   rain probability (p=0.0149), accumulated rain (p=0.0443) and higher relative humidity   (p=0.0292). At a multiple linear regression model using those variables, ONI values shown   to be the most important and significant factor found to be associated with the monthly   occurrence of DHF cases (r²=0.649; βstandardized=-0.836; p=0.01). As has been shown herein,   climate variability is an important element influencing the dengue epidemiology in   Honduras. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in   the Central America region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as   well as for prediction of dengue.
authors.affiliation: Hospital Escuela, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras (UNAH), Tegucigalpa, Honduras.
authors.forename: L I
authors.initials: LI
authors.lastname: Zambrano
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sevilla
authors.forename: S Z
authors.initials: SZ
authors.lastname: Reyes-García
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sierra
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kafati
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Rodriguez-Morales
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mattar
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002980:Climate; D006721:Honduras / Q000453:epidemiology; D006761:Hospitals; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D019595:Severe Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*