title: Global burden of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis with asthma and its complication chronic pulmonary aspergillosis in adults.
abstract: Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) complicates asthma and may lead to chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) yet global burdens of each have never been estimated. Antifungal therapy has a place in the management of ABPA and is the cornerstone of treatment in CPA, reducing morbidity and probably mortality. We used the country-specific prevalence of asthma from the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) report applied to population estimates to calculate adult asthma cases. From five referral cohorts (China, Ireland, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia and South Africa), we estimated the prevalence of ABPA in adults with asthma at 2.5% (range 0.72-3.5%) (scoping review). From ABPA case series, pulmonary cavitation occurred in 10% (range 7-20%), allowing an estimate of CPA prevalence worldwide using a deterministic scenario-based model. Of 193 million adults with active asthma worldwide, we estimate that 4,837,000 patients (range 1,354,000-6,772,000) develop ABPA. By WHO region, the ABPA burden estimates are: Europe, 1,062,000; Americas, 1,461,000; Eastern Mediterranean, 351,000; Africa, 389,900; Western Pacific, 823,200; South East Asia, 720,400. We calculate a global case burden of CPA complicating ABPA of 411,100 (range 206,300-589,400) at a 10% rate with a 15% annual attrition. The global burden of ABPA potentially exceeds 4.8 million people and of CPA complicating ABPA ˜ 400,000, which is more common than previously appreciated. Both conditions respond to antifungal therapy justifying improved case detection. Prospective population and clinical cohort studies are warranted to more precisely ascertain the frequency of ABPA and CPA in different locations and ethnic groups and validate the model inputs.
authors.affiliation: The University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The National Aspergillosis Centre, University Hospital of South Manchester, Manchester, UK. ddenning@manchester.ac.uk
authors.forename: David W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Denning
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pleuvry
authors.forename: Donald C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Cole
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001229:Aspergillosis, Allergic Bronchopulmonary / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D001249:Asthma / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D002908:Chronic Disease; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D055732:Pulmonary Aspergillosis / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology