title: Epidemiology of fracture in the Russian Federation and the development of a FRAX model.
abstract: The incidence of hip, forearm and humeral fractures was studied in two cities from the Russian Federation. Fracture rates were used to create a FRAX model for Russia and to estimate the current and future burden of fracture.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  There is scant information on the epidemiology of fracture in Russia. The aim of the study was to determine the incidence of major fractures in order to populate a new FRAX model and to characterise the burden and future burden of fractures.
  
  
  METHODS
  The number of hip, forearm and humeral fractures was determined in two Russian cities with a well-defined catchment population over a 2-3-year period. Incidence rates for the two cities were merged and used to populate a FRAX model for Russia. Incidence rates were also applied to the general population in 2010 and 25 years later in 2035.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 6,012 fractures were documented. For hip fracture, 27 % of cases in Pervouralsk and 1.8 % in Yaroslavl were not registered in the hospital data base. The incidence of index fractures increased with age and was higher in women than in men. The lifetime probability of hip fracture at the age of 50 years was 4 % in men and 7 % in women. The total number of hip fractures estimated in 2010 (112,000) is expected to rise to 159,000 in 2035. The estimated number of major fractures will rise from 590,000 to 730,000 over the same time interval.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Fragility fractures pose a serious health care problem in Russia. Urgent steps are needed to improve the acute management of hip fracture and long-term care of other osteoporotic fractures.
authors.affiliation: Department of Family Medicine, Ural State Medical Academy, 185, Volgogradskaya Street, Yekaterinburg 620102, Russian Federation. lesnyak@sky.ru
authors.forename: Olga
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Lesnyak
authors.forename: Olga
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Ershova
authors.forename: Ksenia
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Belova
authors.forename: Elena
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gladkova
authors.forename: Olga
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Sinitsina
authors.forename: Olga
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Ganert
authors.forename: Marina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Romanova
authors.forename: Vitalij
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Khodirev
authors.forename: Helena
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.forename: Eugene
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: McCloskey
authors.forename: John A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kanis
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D006811:Humerus / Q000293:injuries*; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010024:Osteoporosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011885:Radius Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D014458:Ulna Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology*