title: Optimal decision rules for HTA under uncertainty: a wider, dynamic perspective.
abstract: We present a two-period framework, which combines real option and decision-theoretic approaches to health technology assessment under uncertainty. By viewing adoption, treatment and research decisions as a single economic project, we illustrate how their key dimensions affect optimal rules. We consider the results in relation to the existing literature and argue that developments in this direction could contribute substantially to efficiency gains in resource allocation.
authors.affiliation: University of York, York, UK.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Forster
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Pertile
mesh_terms: D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D054855:Drug-Eluting Stents / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013673:Technology Assessment, Biomedical / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods*; D018581:Technology Transfer; D035501:Uncertainty