title: Development and validation of a tuberculosis prognostic score for smear-positive in-patients in Japan.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  No scoring system has ever been used to estimate the prognosis of individual tuberculosis (TB) patients.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To develop and validate a tuberculosis prognostic score.
  
  
  METHODS
  This retrospective cohort study conducted in Japan comprised the development (n  = 179; mean age 65.9 ± 18.8 years) and validation (n = 244; mean age 64.3 ± 20.1 years) of a tuberculosis prognostic score among patients with newly diagnosed smear-positive non-multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis without human immunodeficiency virus infection.  The score (raw score) was defined by modifying a logistic regression formula using known risk factors as independent variables and in-patient death as a dependent variable.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The raw score was calculated as follows: age (years) + (oxygen requirement, 10 points) - 20 ×  albumin (g/dl) + (activity of daily living: independent, 0 point; semi-dependent, 5 points; totally dependent, 10 points). The raw scores were grouped into risk groups 1 (raw score < -30) to 5 (raw score ≥ 60) using 30-point intervals. Every increase in risk group was equivalent  to a 7.3-fold increase in the odds ratio for in-hospital death (P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve by risk group for in-patient death was 0.875 (P < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this study we were able to develop and validate a tuberculosis  prognostic score.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Immunology, Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan. nobuyuki_horita@yahoo.co.jp
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Horita
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Miyazawa
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yoshiyama
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yamamoto
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tomaru
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Masuda
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tashiro
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sasaki
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Morita
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kaneko
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ishigatsubo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001431:Bacteriological Techniques / Q000379:methods*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013183:Sputum / Q000382:microbiology*; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000382:microbiology*; D055815:Young Adult