title: A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.
abstract: Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire, MK43 0AL, UK.
authors.forename: João
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Delgado
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Pollard
authors.forename: Emma
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Snary
authors.forename: Edgar
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Black
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Prpich
authors.forename: Phil
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Longhurst
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D006691:Classical Swine Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D006692:Classical Swine Fever Virus / Q000378:metabolism; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D034421:Sus scrofa; D013552:Swine; D013598:Systems Theory; D006113:United Kingdom