title: A model to predict the response to therapy against hepatitis C virus (HCV) including low-density lipoprotein receptor genotype in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Accurate prediction of sustained virological response (SVR) to pegylated interferon-α (Peg-IFN) plus ribavirin in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected patients could improve the management of these patients. We aimed to develop a model to predict SVR to Peg-IFN/ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals combining HCV genotype and baseline HCV RNA load with interleukin 28B and low-density lipoprotein receptor genetic variations.
  
  
  METHODS
  Three hundred and twelve treatment-naive HIV/HCV-coinfected patients receiving Peg-IFN/ribavirin were analysed in an on-treatment approach. One hundred and eighty-one of them were included in the development group and 131 in the validation population. The predictive model was obtained from a logistic regression equation including the above-mentioned variables. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves (95% CI), sensitivity and specificity, as well as negative and positive predictive values, were calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  SVR was achieved by 88 (48.6%) patients from the development group and 68 (51.9%) individuals from the validation group. The AUROC curve values (95% asymptotic CI) were 0.83 (0.77-0.89) for the development group and 0.84 (0.77-0.91) for the validation group. Using two cut-off values, maximum specificity and sensitivity were 89.7% and 96.6%, respectively, with a negative predictive value for SVR of 88.9% and a positive predictive value of 83.6%. Thirteen (7.2%) individuals were misclassified using these cut-off values.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model represents a reliable and easily applicable tool to individually evaluate the probability of achieving an SVR to Peg-IFN/ribavirin among HIV/HCV-coinfected patients.
authors.affiliation: Unit of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, Hospital Universitario de Valme, Avenida de Bellavista S/N, 41014 Seville, Spain.
authors.forename: Karin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Neukam
authors.forename: Carmen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Almeida
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Caruz
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rivero-Juárez
authors.forename: Norma I
authors.initials: NI
authors.lastname: Rallón
authors.forename: Federico A
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: Di Lello
authors.forename: Rocío
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Herrero
authors.forename: Angela
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Camacho
authors.forename: José M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Benito
authors.forename: Juan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Macías
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rivero
authors.forename: Vicente
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Soriano
authors.forename: Juan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Pineda
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D005260:Female; D005838:Genotype; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications*; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000145:classification / Q000187:drug effects / Q000235:genetics; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000150:complications* / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D016898:Interferon-alpha / Q000008:administration & dosage; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012254:Ribavirin / Q000008:administration & dosage; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D016898:Interferon-alpha; D012254:Ribavirin