title: Projected socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of obesity among Australian adults.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To project prevalence of normal weight, overweight and obesity by educational attainment, assuming a continuation of the observed individual weight change in the 5-year follow-up of the national population survey, the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab; 2000-2005).
  
  
  METHODS
  Age-specific transition probabilities between BMI categories, estimated using logistic regression, were entered into education-level-specific, incidence-based, multi-state life tables. Assuming a continuation of the weight change observed in AusDiab, these life tables estimate the prevalence of normal weight, overweight and obesity for Australian adults with low (secondary), medium (diploma) and high (degree) levels of education between 2005 and 2025.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of obesity among individuals with secondary level educational attainment is estimated to increase from 23% in 2000 to 44% in 2025. Among individuals with a degree qualification or higher, it will increase from 14% to 30%. If all current educational inequalities in weight change could be eliminated, the projected difference in the prevalence of obesity by 2025 between the highest and lowest educated categories would only be reduced by half (to a 6 percentage point difference from 14 percentage points).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We predict that almost half of Australian adults with low educational status will be obese by 2025. Current trends in obesity have the potential to drive an increase in the absolute difference in obesity prevalence between educational categories in future years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Unless obesity prevention and management strategies focus specifically on narrowing social inequalities in obesity, inequalities in health are likely to widen.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia. kathryn.backholer@bakeridi.edu.au
authors.forename: Kathryn
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Backholer
authors.forename: Haider R
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Mannan
authors.forename: Dianna J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Magliano
authors.forename: Helen L
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Walls
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Stevenson
authors.forename: Alison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Beauchamp
authors.forename: Jonathan E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Shaw
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Peeters
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015992:Body Mass Index; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015993:Life Tables; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D055815:Young Adult