title: Multicomponent indices to predict survival in COPD: the COCOMICS study.
abstract: Guidelines recommend defining chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by airflow obstruction and other factors, but no studies have evaluated the ability of existing multicomponent indices to predict mortality up to 10 years. We conducted a patient-based pooled analysis. Survival analysis and C statistics were used to determine the best COPD index/indices according to several construct variables and by varying time-points. Individual data of 3633 patients from 11 COPD cohorts were collected, totalling the experience of 15 878 person-years. Overall, there were 1245 death events within our cohorts, with a Kaplan-Meier survival of 0.963 at 6 months, which was reduced to 0.432 at 10 years. In all patients, ADO (age, dyspnoea and forced expiratory volume in 1 s), BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea and exercise capacity) and e-BODE (BODE plus exacerbations) were the best indices to predict 6-month mortality. The ADO index was the best to predict 12-month (C statistic 0.702), 5-year (C statistic 0.695) and 10-year mortality (C statistic 0.698), and was significantly better than BODE (all p<0.05). The best indices to predict death by C statistics when adjusting by age were e-BODE, BODEx (substitution of exacerbations for exercise capacity) and BODE. No index predicts short-term survival of COPD well. All BODE modifications scored better than ADO after age adjustment. The ADO and BODE indices are overall the most valid multicomponent indices to predict time to death in all COPD patients.
authors.affiliation: Hospital Universitario Miguel Servet, Zaragoza.
authors.forename: Jose M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Marin
authors.forename: Inmaculada
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Alfageme
authors.forename: Pere
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Almagro
authors.forename: Ciro
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Casanova
authors.forename: Cristobal
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Esteban
authors.forename: Juan J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Soler-Cataluña
authors.forename: Juan P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: de Torres
authors.forename: Pablo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Martínez-Camblor
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Miravitlles
authors.forename: Bartolome R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Celli
authors.forename: Joan B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Soriano
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015992:Body Mass Index; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004417:Dyspnea / Q000503:physiopathology; D017079:Exercise Tolerance; D005260:Female; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000401:mortality* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy; D011788:Quality of Life; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012907:Smoking; D016896:Treatment Outcome