title: The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.
abstract: The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito Exterior s/n, AP 70-153, México DF 04510. anahigr@ibunam2.ibiologia.unam.mx
authors.forename: Martha Anahí
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Güizado-Rodríguez
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ballesteros-Barrera
authors.forename: Gustavo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Casas-Andreu
authors.forename: Victor Luis
authors.initials: VL
authors.lastname: Barradas-Miranda
authors.forename: Oswaldo
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Téllez-Valdés
authors.forename: Isaías Hazarmabeth
authors.initials: IH
authors.lastname: Salgado-Ugarte
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003710:Demography; D057232:Global Warming; D008116:Lizards / Q000502:physiology*; D008800:Mexico