title: The durations of past sickness absences predict future absence episodes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether preceding absence episodes increase the risk of future sickness absence, we examined recurrence of short (1 to 3 days), intermediate (4 to 14 days), and long (>2 weeks) sickness-absence episodes.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from 6934 municipal employees of the City of Helsinki were analyzed using proportional hazards models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Preceding sickness absence increased the risk of new sickness-absence episodes. The association was stronger for longer sickness absence spells and for men. Shorter absence spells also predicted longer absence spells. Working conditions and health behaviors did not modify the associations.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The risk of recurrent sickness absences is higher for longer sickness-absence spells, which are often recurrent in nature. In addition, short absence spells predict future longer spells, suggesting that short absences are not trivial for health.
authors.affiliation: Hjelt Institute, Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. mikko.t.laaksonen@helsinki.fi
authors.forename: Mikko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Laaksonen
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: He
authors.forename: Janne
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pitkäniemi
mesh_terms: D000041:Absenteeism; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002947:Cities; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology; D016272:Occupational Health; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012737:Sex Factors; D018582:Sick Leave / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D018434:Sickness Impact Profile; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D017132:Workplace