title: Latent heterogeneity in long-term trajectories of body mass index in older adults.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate latent heterogeneity in long-term trajectories of body weight in older adults.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed 14-year longitudinal data on 10,314 older adults from the Health and Retirement Study. Semiparametric mixture models identified latent subgroups of similar trajectories of body mass index (BMI).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Five distinct trajectory subgroups emerged: normal starting-BMI with accelerated increase over time (trajectory #1), overweight and increasing (trajectory #2), borderline-obese and increasing (trajectory #3), obese and increasing (trajectory #4), and morbidly obese with decelerating gain (trajectory #5). Blacks and Hispanics had greater risk of membership in ascending high-BMI trajectory groups. Females had approximately half the risk of following overweight and obese increasing BMI trajectories compared with males.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Distinct latent subgroups of BMI trajectories and significant racial/ethnic and gender trajectory heterogeneity exist in the older adult population. The propensity of men and minorities to experience high-risk BMI trajectories may exacerbate existing disparities in morbidity/ mortality in older age.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine/Geriatrics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06510, USA. andabm@umich.edu
authors.forename: Anda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Botoseneanu
authors.forename: Jersey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liang
mesh_terms: D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000375:Aging / Q000208:ethnology; D015992:Body Mass Index; D005260:Female; D006630:Hispanic or Latino / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology; D009767:Obesity, Morbid / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology; D050177:Overweight / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology