title: Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.
abstract: This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.
authors.affiliation: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Exposure Assessment Branch, Health Effects Laboratory Division, Morgantown, West Virginia 26505, USA. dtq5@cdc.gov
authors.forename: Eun Gyung
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Seung Won
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Charles E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Feigley
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Harper
mesh_terms: D019840:2-Propanol / Q000032:analysis*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003657:Decision Making; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004581:Electronics; D015386:Hazardous Substances / Q000032:analysis*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D016273:Occupational Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D016272:Occupational Health; D000439:Pentanols / Q000032:analysis*; D011327:Printing; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D017132:Workplace
chemical_list: D015386:Hazardous Substances; D000439:Pentanols; D019840:2-Propanol; C020377:isoamyl acetate