title: Estimation of bladder cancer projections in Spain.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  One of the most frequent cancers in the world is bladder cancer that affects, according to some authors, 5.4 million persons in the most developed countries. Our study has aimed to estimate the impact projections of this disease in Spain between 2007 and 2022.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mortality data for bladder cancer mortality was used International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10 C67), and the population data from 1998 to 2007. The data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Relative survival was obtained form the EUROCARE study. The projections of incidence, prevalence, and mortality were estimated using the statistical program Mortality-Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) and after the joinpoint regression that calculates the Annual Percentage of Change (APC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Between the years 1998 and 2022, it is foreseen that there will be a decrease in prevalence in the men, from 156.93 (adjusted rate AR=128.71) to 132.99 (AR=84.68) cases per 100,000 inhabitants/year in the year 2022. The incidence rate would decrease from 30.2 (AR=24.93) to 24.87 (AR=15.88) and mortality from 14.96 (AR=12.25) to 12.08 (AR=7.67). In women, an increase is expected in prevalence from 21.18 (AR=13.23) to 35.6 (AR=21.46) cases per 100.000 inhabitants/year. The incidence of 4.8 (AR=2.91) in 1998 to 7.79 (AR=4.69), Mortality will increase from 2.25 (AR=1.32) to 3.37 (AR=1.89) between the years 1998 and 2022. In men, the APCs found for prevalence, incidence and mortality were, respectively, 0.69 (95% CI%:-6.9/8.9); 0.69 (95% CI:-6.9/8.95) and -4.18 (95% CI:-11.32/3.51), these not being statistically significant. In women, the APC for prevalence was -4.44 (95% CI:-13.4/5.44). from 19.24 (95% CI:8.93/30.52).and from -3.28 (95% CI:-20.26/17.20) for mortality.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This cancer should be monitored and in turn prevented based on the controllable risk factors, especially in women.
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario Lozano Blesa, Zaragoza, España. Electronic address: mibernal@unizar.es.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bernal-Pérez
authors.forename: D L B
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Souza
authors.forename: F J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Romero-Fernández
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Gómez-Bernal
authors.forename: F J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Gómez-Bernal
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D005506:Food Contamination; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D038801:International Classification of Diseases; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D016273:Occupational Exposure; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D001749:Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality