title: Projecting range limits with coupled thermal tolerance - climate change models: an example based on gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. east coast.
abstract: We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Narragansett Laboratory, Narragansett, Rhode Island, USA. jon.hare@noaa.gov
authors.forename: Jonathan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hare
authors.forename: Mark J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Wuenschel
authors.forename: Matthew E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Kimball
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010473:Perciformes / Q000502:physiology*; D014481:United States