title: Stroke and coronary heart disease: predictive power of standard risk factors into old age--long-term cumulative risk study among men in Gothenburg, Sweden.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to examine the short-term and long-term cumulative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke separately based on age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total serum cholesterol.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The Primary Prevention Study comprising 7174 men aged between 47 and 55 free from a previous history of CHD, stroke, and diabetes at baseline examination (1970-73) was followed up for 35 years. To estimate the cumulative effect of CHD and stroke, all participants were stratified into one of five risk groups, defined by their number of risk factors. The estimated 10-year risk for high-risk individuals when adjusted for age and competing risk was 18.1% for CHD and 3.2% for stroke which increased to 47.8 and 19.6%, respectively, after 35 years. The estimates based on risk factors performed well throughout the period for CHD but less well for stroke.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The prediction of traditional risk factors (systolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and smoking status) on short-term risk (0-10 years) and long-term risk (0-35 years) of CHD of stroke differs substantially. This indicates that the cumulative risk in middle-aged men based on these traditional risk factors can effectively be used to predict CHD but not stroke to the same extent.
authors.affiliation: Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, SE-41685 Gothenburg, Sweden.
authors.forename: Kok Wai
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Giang
authors.forename: Lena
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Björck
authors.forename: Masuma
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Novak
authors.forename: Georgios
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Lappas
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wilhelmsen
authors.forename: Kjell
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Torén
authors.forename: Annika
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rosengren
mesh_terms: D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors