title: [The building and validation of a model to predict the bone metastases of patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop and validate a nomogram used to predict the bone metastasis risks according to the clinicopathological factors of patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  The 501 cases were randomly assigned into development sample (300 cases) and validation sample (201 cases). In the development sample, Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the predictors of bone metastases, and then a nomogram was built based on regression coefficients and validated in the validation sample.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Prostate specific antigen, cT3, cT4 and Gleason score ≥ 8 were the independent prognostic factors (P < 0.05), and the OR values were 5.65, 2.89, 9.07 and 2.87 respectively. The concordance index was 0.830 in the model sample and 0.799 in the validation sample.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A nomogram, built based on the clinicopathological factors, could be used to predict the risk of bone metastases and then could be helpful for the rational use of bone scan.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Jia-quan
authors.initials: JQ
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.forename: Xu-dong
authors.initials: XD
authors.lastname: Yao
authors.forename: Shi-lin
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Bo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Dai
authors.forename: Hai-liang
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Ding-wei
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Ye
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001859:Bone Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000556:secondary*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000032:analysis; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology*
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen