title: Disability rates for working-age adults and for the elderly have stabilized, but trends for each mean different results for costs.
abstract: The aging of the baby-boom generation, as well as predicted growth in the number of people with disabilities, is expected to increase the demand for long-term services and supports dramatically. This study analyzed data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation from 1984 to 2010 to discern trends among noninstitutionalized working-age adults and the elderly who had some level of disability or need for help with activities of daily living. Some impairments among the elderly, such as in mobility and mental health, decreased. Meanwhile, some impairments among working-age adults, such as in cognitive ability, increased substantially. Of particular importance, the overall prevalence of disability for both age groups has largely stabilized since 2000. Among working-age adults, that stabilization is good news because it eases concern, fueled by prior research, that this population was becoming increasingly disabled and costly to public benefit programs such as Social Security Disability Insurance. However, the flattening of disability trends among the elderly is not good news, since it suggests that the number of elderly people with disabilities will continue to increase in direct proportion to the growing size of the elderly population. Among other implications, the need for both paid workers and unpaid caregivers to assist elderly people, especially those ages seventy-five and older, will continue to increase sharply.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health and Aging and the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA. steve.kaye@ucsf.edu
authors.forename: H Stephen
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Kaye
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004608:Eligibility Determination / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends*; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000639:trends*; D012943:Social Security / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends*; D014481:United States