title: Predicting self-reported violations among novice license drivers using pre-license simulator measures.
abstract: Novice drivers are overrepresented in crash statistics and there is a clear need for remedial measures. Driving simulators allow for controlled and objective measurement of behavior and might therefore be a useful tool for predicting whether someone will commit deviant driving behaviors on the roads. However, little is currently known about the relationship between driving-simulator behavior and on-road driving behavior in novice drivers. In this study, 321 drivers, who on average 3.4 years earlier had completed a pre-license driver-training program in a medium-fidelity simulator, responded to a questionnaire about their on-road driving. Zero-order correlations showed that violations and speed in the simulator were predictive of self-reported on-road violations. This relationship persisted after controlling for age, gender, mileage, and education level. Respondents with a higher number of violations, faster speed, and lower number of errors in the simulator reported completing fewer hours of on-road lessons before their first on-road driving test. The results add to the literature on the predictive validity of driving simulators, and can be used to identify at-risk drivers early in a driver-training program.
authors.affiliation: Department of BioMechanical Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands. j.c.f.dewinter@tudelft.nl
authors.forename: J C F
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: de Winter
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003196:Computer Graphics; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012309:Risk-Taking; D057566:Self Report; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014584:User-Computer Interface; D055815:Young Adult