title: Modeling past and future acidification of Swedish lakes.
abstract: Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of "not naturally acidified" (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.
authors.affiliation: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Box 53021, 400 14, Gothenburg, Sweden. filip.moldan@ivl.se
authors.forename: Filip
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Moldan
authors.forename: Bernard J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Cosby
authors.forename: Richard F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Wright
mesh_terms: D015258:Acid Rain; D000393:Air Pollutants; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D006863:Hydrogen-Ion Concentration; D060106:Lakes / Q000737:chemistry*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012987:Soil / Q000737:chemistry; D013548:Sweden; D014197:Trees
chemical_list: D015258:Acid Rain; D000393:Air Pollutants; D012987:Soil