title: Malaria transmission potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River, China.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir.
  
  
  METHODS
  Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. Transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory (based on evaluation by the Delphi method).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man-biting rate.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Parasitic Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, WHO Collaborating Center for Malaria, Schistosomiasis and filariasis, Shanghai 200025, China.
authors.forename: Duo Quan
authors.initials: DQ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Lin Hua
authors.initials: LH
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Zhen Cheng
authors.initials: ZC
authors.lastname: Gu
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.forename: Wei Kang
authors.initials: WK
authors.lastname: Jiang
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D009033:Culicidae / Q000502:physiology*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control; D006798:Housing; D006801:Humans; D007299:Insect Bites and Stings; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D045483:Rivers; D062066:Water Resources