title: Geographic distribution of risk of death due to homicide in Puerto Rico, 2001-2010.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To raise awareness of the impact of homicides in Puerto Rico based on the findings of the spatial and temporal distribution of homicides and the use of firearms, by age and gender, using reports of interpersonal violent deaths from the Institute of Forensic Science (IFS) headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a descriptive study of all homicide incidents in Puerto Rico reported by the IFS for the period 2001-2010. For each of the 8 542 cases, data analyzed included age, sex, municipality of incident, date of death, and mechanism. Crude sex- and age-specific mortality rates for Puerto Rico and for each municipality per year and for the 10-year period were calculated. Cumulative rate and cumulative risks were estimated and defined as lifetime risk. The relative distribution of cumulative rates for each municipality was categorized into quartiles of highest to lowest risk and displayed as a map.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The risk of homicide death among males is 13 times greater than among females. The highest rates were observed among males 20-24 years of age (198.4 homicides per 100 000). In any given year, firearms were used in at least 80% of homicides. The average lifetime risk of homicide death for males is 1 in 34.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Young adult males with access to firearms are at greatest risk of homicide in Puerto Rico. Also, highly urbanized municipalities are at highest risk; however, certain non-urban municipalities along the coast also have a very high homicide risk. Top priorities should be applying the WHO "ecological model" for violent injury prevention and establishing a surveillance system that will assist in identifying the role that socioeconomics, illegal firearms trade, and drug trafficking are playing.
authors: Ponce School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Puerto Rico, USA. dzavala@psm.edu
authors: Diego E
authors: DE
authors: Zavala-Zegarra
authors: Magdalena
authors: M
authors: López-Charneco
authors: Enid J
authors: EJ
authors: Garcia-Rivera
authors: Alberto
authors: A
authors: Concha-Eastman
authors: José F
authors: JF
authors: Rodriguez
authors: María
authors: M
authors: Conte-Miller
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002423:Cause of Death; D005260:Female; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011647:Puerto Rico / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult