title: Cholera in Haiti: reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates.
abstract: Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (R(0)). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. R(0) varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an (R(0)) <1, which would suppress transmission. In the current debate on the use of cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.
authors: Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA. zmukandavire@gmail.com
authors: Zindoga
authors: Z
authors: Mukandavire
authors: David L
authors: DL
authors: Smith
authors: J Glenn
authors: JG
authors: Morris
mesh_terms: D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D022121:Cholera Vaccines / Q000276:immunology*; D006205:Haiti / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014611:Vaccination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
chemical_list: D022121:Cholera Vaccines