title: Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries.
abstract: Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.
authors: School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, USA. lauren.rogers@bio.uio.no
authors: Lauren A
authors: LA
authors: Rogers
authors: Daniel E
authors: DE
authors: Schindler
authors: Peter J
authors: PJ
authors: Lisi
authors: Gordon W
authors: GW
authors: Holtgrieve
authors: Peter R
authors: PR
authors: Leavitt
authors: Lynda
authors: L
authors: Bunting
authors: Bruce P
authors: BP
authors: Finney
authors: Daniel T
authors: DT
authors: Selbie
authors: Guangjie
authors: G
authors: Chen
authors: Irene
authors: I
authors: Gregory-Eaves
authors: Mark J
authors: MJ
authors: Lisac
authors: Patrick B
authors: PB
authors: Walsh
mesh_terms: D000413:Alaska; D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends; D004463:Ecology / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends; D017753:Ecosystem; D005398:Fisheries / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005843:Geography; D019015:Geologic Sediments / Q000032:analysis*; D007856:Lead Radioisotopes / Q000032:analysis; D009587:Nitrogen Isotopes / Q000032:analysis; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D011157:Population Dynamics; D055110:Radiometric Dating / Q000379:methods; D012474:Salmon / Q000254:growth & development*; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D007856:Lead Radioisotopes; D009587:Nitrogen Isotopes