title: A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing.
abstract: Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems.
authors: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA.
authors: Emanuele
authors: E
authors: Di Lorenzo
authors: Mark D
authors: MD
authors: Ohman
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002140:California; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D016014:Linear Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013997:Time Factors; D015048:Zooplankton / Q000502:physiology*