title: [Estimation and analysis of HIV incidence in the adult population in Peru: results of application of the MoT mathematical model].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate HIV incidence in the adult population of Peru, 2010, and analyze its distribution based on risk behavior.
  
  
  METHODS
  The UNAIDS model was applied based on the modes of transmission (MoT). The information was obtained from the review detailed in 59 documents (1984 - 2008). National databases were also analyzed to obtain specific data. Final selection of data was validated by the technical group and a group of experts. After consultation with experts, values were corrected and an uncertainty analysis was conducted. The model was adjusted to 2009 national prevalence (0.45%).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Incidence estimated for 2010 was 0.03%, (4346 new infections). 84% of new infections concentrate on higher risk groups: men who have sex with men (55%) and people who have casual sex with heterosexuals (6.2%). The remaining 16% corresponds to low-risk heterosexual population. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 43% of new cases, 18% of which corresponds to female partners of high risk individuals. Only 2.2% of cases is related to female sexual work and 1.0% to injection drug users.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The model provides an estimation of the incidence and its distribution among risk groups according to the mode of transmission, consistent with the HIV case reporting. The model creates scenarios to help decision making and policy formulation, as well as surveillance and planning of prevention and control.
authors: Sección de Epidemiología, Instituto de Medicina Tropical Daniel A. Carrión, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Perú. jalarconv@unmsm.edu.pe
authors: Jorge O
authors: JO
authors: Alarcón
authors: Mónica
authors: M
authors: Pun
authors: César
authors: C
authors: Gutiérrez
authors: Alvaro
authors: A
authors: Whittembury
authors: Romina
authors: R
authors: Tejada
authors: Luis
authors: L
authors: Suárez
authors: Gustavo
authors: G
authors: Rosell
authors: Annick
authors: A
authors: Bórquez
authors: Paloma
authors: P
authors: Cuchi
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D020010:Heterosexuality; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010568:Peru / Q000453:epidemiology; D012725:Sexual Behavior