[Trends in the epidemic of Aids cases in Southern Brazil from 1986 to 2008].
OBJECTIVE
To describe trends in the incidence of Aids cases according to age and gender from 1986 to 2008.


METHODS
Analyses of Aids trends according to age group and to gender was carried out Londrina, Southern Brazil. The timeframe was divided into two periods (1986-1995 and 1996-2008). Of the polynomial models, it was the first-degree polynomial model which best explained the Aids epidemic within the two periods. The incidence rate of Aids among men who have sex with other men (MSM), injecting drug users (IDU), heterosexual men and women was calculated.


RESULTS
During the first period, from 1986 to 1995, there was an increase in the incidence of Aids in almost all age groups and the epidemic spread across both sexes (p < 0.001), although this was more marked in men aged 14-39. The second period (1996-2008) did not show a positive or negative statistical increase, indicating that the epidemic had stabilized. A significant fall in the rate for the male 14 to 29 age group was found, with increases of 0.88 and 0.87 for the first and second period respectively. Cases in women aged 50 and over showed a marked increase (p = 0.019). The IDU and MSM groups predominated as the categories with the most exposure, with MSM taking over from IDU in the last three years of the study. From 2000 onwards, incidences in females aged 15 to 49 overtook that of heterosexual men.


CONCLUSIONS
The study showed a decrease in incidence in the younger age groups and stabilization in the other age groups. There is a need for different approaches in order to reach groups with several characteristics due to the increase in the proportion of women and MSM within the exposure categories.
Departamento de DSTs, Aids e Hepatites Virais, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, DF, Brasil. flalazarini@gmail.com
Flaviane Mello
FM
Lazarini
Regina
R
Melchior
Alberto Durán
AD
González
Tiemi
T
Matsuo
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D058872:Epidemics; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012737:Sex Factors; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult