Opportunities and challenges in supply-side simulation: physician-based models.
OBJECTIVE
To provide a conceptual framework and to assess the availability of empirical data for supply-side microsimulation modeling in the context of health care.


METHODS
Multiple secondary data sources, including the American Community Survey, Health Tracking Physician Survey, and SK&A physician database.


METHODS
We apply our conceptual framework to one entity in the health care market-physicians-and identify, assess, and compare data available for physician-based simulation models.


RESULTS
Our conceptual framework describes three broad types of data required for supply-side microsimulation modeling. Our assessment of available data for modeling physician behavior suggests broad comparability across various sources on several dimensions and highlights the need for significant integration of data across multiple sources to provide a platform adequate for modeling. A growing literature provides potential estimates for use as behavioral parameters that could serve as the models' engines. Sources of data for simulation modeling that account for the complex organizational and financial relationships among physicians and other supply-side entities are limited.


CONCLUSIONS
A key challenge for supply-side microsimulation modeling is optimally combining available data to harness their collective power. Several possibilities also exist for novel data collection. These have the potential to serve as catalysts for the next generation of supply-side-focused simulation models to inform health policy.
Department of Health Systems Administration, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
Carole Roan
CR
Gresenz
David I
DI
Auerbach
Fabian
F
Duarte
D001291:Attitude of Health Personnel; D019033:Delivery of Health Care, Integrated / Q000458:organization & administration; D019538:Health Care Surveys; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000458:organization & administration; D006302:Health Services Research / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006801:Humans; D008389:Marketing of Health Services / Q000458:organization & administration; D017146:Models, Organizational; D010347:Patient Care Planning / Q000458:organization & administration*; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D010818:Practice Patterns, Physicians' / Q000458:organization & administration*; D014481:United States