Simulating the impact of long-term care policy on family eldercare hours.
OBJECTIVE
To understand the effect of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on family eldercare hours for older adults (60 years of age and older) in Singapore.


METHODS
The Social Isolation Health and Lifestyles Survey, the Survey on Informal Caregiving, and the Singapore Government's Ministry of Health and Department of Statistics.


METHODS
An LTC Model was created using system dynamics methodology and parameterized using available reports and data as well as informal consultation with LTC experts.


RESULTS
In the absence of policy change, among the elderly living at home with limitations in their activities of daily living (ADLs), the proportion of those with greater ADL limitations will increase. In addition, by 2030, average family eldercare hours per week are projected to increase by 41 percent from 29 to 41 hours. All policy levers considered would moderate or significantly reduce family eldercare hours.


CONCLUSIONS
System dynamics modeling was useful in providing policy makers with an overview of the levers available to them and in demonstrating the interdependence of policies and system components.
Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Health Services and Systems Research Program, Singapore 169857. john.ansah@duke-nus.edu.sg
John P
JP
Ansah
David B
DB
Matchar
Sean R
SR
Love
Rahul
R
Malhotra
Young Kyung
YK
Do
Angelique
A
Chan
Robert
R
Eberlein
D000203:Activities of Daily Living / Q000145:classification*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017028:Caregivers / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005260:Female; D006291:Health Policy / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends; D018576:Home Health Aides / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends; D006704:Homemaker Services / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000191:economics; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012846:Singapore; D013997:Time Factors