Assessment for fuel consumption and exhaust emissions of China's vehicles: future trends and policy implications.
In the recent years, China's auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China's vehicle population and finds that China's auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020-2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles' fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NO(x), and PM) and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded that (1) by 2020, China should develop at least 47 million medium/heavy hybrid cars to prevent the growth of vehicle fuel consumption; (2) China should take the more stringent vehicle emission standard V over 2017-2021 to hold back the growth of exhaust emissions; (3) developing new energy vehicles is the most effective measure to ease the pressure brought by auto industry.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
Yingying
Y
Wu
Peng
P
Zhao
Hongwei
H
Zhang
Yuan
Y
Wang
Guozhu
G
Mao
D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000465:Algorithms; D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000379:methods*; D058735:Environmental Policy / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007221:Industry / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends; D016015:Logistic Models; D018986:Motor Vehicles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014186:Transportation / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000517:prevention & control*
D001335:Vehicle Emissions