title: Modeling the spatial spread of Rift Valley fever in Egypt.
abstract: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that harms both human health and livestock production. It is believed that RVF in Egypt has been repeatedly introduced by the importation of infected animals from Sudan. In this paper, we propose a three-patch model for the process by which animals enter Egypt from Sudan, are moved up the Nile, and then consumed at population centers. The basic reproduction number for each patch is introduced and then the threshold dynamics of the model are established. We simulate an interesting scenario showing a possible explanation of the observed phenomenon of the geographic spread of RVF in Egypt.
authors: Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, University of California, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
authors: Daozhou
authors: D
authors: Gao
authors: Chris
authors: C
authors: Cosner
authors: Robert Stephen
authors: RS
authors: Cantrell
authors: John C
authors: JC
authors: Beier
authors: Shigui
authors: S
authors: Ruan
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number / Q000662:veterinary; D003198:Computer Simulation; D009033:Culicidae / Q000821:virology*; D004534:Egypt / Q000453:epidemiology; D058872:Epidemics / Q000662:veterinary*; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D012295:Rift Valley Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission; D012296:Rift Valley fever virus / Q000276:immunology / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D013397:Sudan; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology
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