title: Real-time individual predictions of prostate cancer recurrence using joint models.
abstract: Patients who were previously treated for prostate cancer with radiation therapy are monitored at regular intervals using a laboratory test called Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA). If the value of the PSA test starts to rise, this is an indication that the prostate cancer is more likely to recur, and the patient may wish to initiate new treatments. Such patients could be helped in making medical decisions by an accurate estimate of the probability of recurrence of the cancer in the next few years. In this article, we describe the methodology for giving the probability of recurrence for a new patient, as implemented on a web-based calculator. The methods use a joint longitudinal survival model. The model is developed on a training dataset of 2386 patients and tested on a dataset of 846 patients. Bayesian estimation methods are used with one Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm developed for estimation of the parameters from the training dataset and a second quick MCMC developed for prediction of the risk of recurrence that uses the longitudinal PSA measures from a new patient.
authors: Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA. jmgt@umich.edu
authors: Jeremy M G
authors: JM
authors: Taylor
authors: Yongseok
authors: Y
authors: Park
authors: Donna P
authors: DP
authors: Ankerst
authors: Cecile
authors: C
authors: Proust-Lima
authors: Scott
authors: S
authors: Williams
authors: Larry
authors: L
authors: Kestin
authors: Kyoungwha
authors: K
authors: Bae
authors: Tom
authors: T
authors: Pickles
authors: Howard
authors: H
authors: Sandler
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology* / Q000532:radiotherapy; D016019:Survival Analysis
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen
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