title: European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2013.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Estimated cancer mortality statistics were published for the years 2011 and 2012 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models and the World Health Organization mortality and population database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized (world) mortality rates (ASRs) in 2013 from all cancers and selected cancers.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 2013 predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU is 1 314 296 (737 747 men and 576 489 women). Between 2009 and 2013, all cancer ASRs are predicted to fall by 6% to 140.1/100 000 in men, and by 4% to 85.3/100 000 in women. The ASRs per 100 000 are 6.6 men and 2.9 women for stomach, 16.7 men and 9.5 women for intestines, 8.0 men and 5.5 women for pancreas, 37.1 men and 13.9 women for lung, 10.5 men for prostate, 14.6 women for breast, and 4.7 for uterine cancer, and 4.2 and 2.6 for leukaemia. Recent trends are favourable except for pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Favourable trends will continue in 2013. Pancreatic cancer has become the fourth cause of cancer death in both sexes, while in a few years lung cancer will likely become the first cause of cancer mortality in women as well, overtaking breast cancer.
authors: Department of Epidemiology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, 20156 Milan, Italy. carlo.lavecchia@marionegri.it
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Malvezzi
authors: P
authors: P
authors: Bertuccio
authors: F
authors: F
authors: Levi
authors: C
authors: C
authors: La Vecchia
authors: E
authors: E
authors: Negri
mesh_terms: D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D014944:World Health Organization