title: Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network.
abstract: Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban) by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario), a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%), and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%), and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our "restricted-urban-growth" scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S.
authors: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America. cmhamilton2@wisc.edu
authors: Christopher M
authors: CM
authors: Hamilton
authors: Sebastian
authors: S
authors: Martinuzzi
authors: Andrew J
authors: AJ
authors: Plantinga
authors: Volker C
authors: VC
authors: Radeloff
authors: David J
authors: DJ
authors: Lewis
authors: Wayne E
authors: WE
authors: Thogmartin
authors: Patricia J
authors: PJ
authors: Heglund
authors: Anna M
authors: AM
authors: Pidgeon
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D006801:Humans; D014481:United States
references: PLoS One. 2011;6(8):e23777
references: 21876770
references: Science. 2006 Sep 1;313(5791):1284-6
references: 16946070
references: Ecol Appl. 2007 Jun;17(4):1004-18
references: 17555214
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Dec 13;108(50):20260-4
references: 22106295
references: Conserv Biol. 2010 Feb;24(1):151-61
references: 19624528
references: Ecol Lett. 2009 Dec;12(12):1277-86
references: 19874385
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Jan 13;106(2):349-50
references: 19129497
references: PLoS One. 2010 Dec 15;5(12):e14327
references: 21179509
references: Ecol Appl. 2012 Apr;22(3):1036-49
references: 22645830
references: Science. 2000 Mar 10;287(5459):1770-4
references: 10710299
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Jan 12;107(2):940-5
references: 20080780
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 May 6;105(18):6673-8
references: 18451028
references: Science. 2005 Jul 22;309(5734):570-4
references: 16040698
references: Ecol Appl. 2007 Jun;17(4):974-88
references: 17555212
references: Ecol Appl. 2007 Jun;17(4):972-3
references: 17555211
references: Environ Manage. 2009 Dec;44(6):1043-52
references: 19548023
references: Ecol Appl. 2007 Oct;17(7):1989-2010
references: 17974337
references: PLoS One. 2011 Jan 07;6(1):e14508
references: 21249126