title: Clinical utility of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide for risk stratification of patients with acute decompensated heart failure. Derivation and validation of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  NT-proBNP has been associated with prognosis in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Whether NT-proBNP provides additional prognostic information beyond that obtained from standard clinical variables is uncertain. We sought to assess whether N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) determination improves risk reclassification of patients with ADHF and to develop and validate a point-based NT-proBNP risk score.
  
  
  METHODS
  This study included 824 patients with ADHF (453 in the derivation cohort, 371 in the validation cohort). We compared two multivariable models predicting 1-year all-cause mortality, including clinical variables and clinical variables plus NT-proBNP. We calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Then, we developed and externally validated the NT-proBNP risk score.
  
  
  RESULTS
  One-year mortalities for the derivation and validation cohorts were 28.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Multivariable predictors of mortality included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, sodium, hemoglobin, left ventricular ejection fraction, and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation. Adding NT-proBNP to the clinical variables only model significantly improved the NRI (0.129; p=0.0027) and the IDI (0.037; p=0.0005). In the derivation cohort, the NT-proBNP risk score had a C index of 0.839 (95% CI: 0.798-0.880) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 1.23 (p=0.542), indicating good calibration. In the validation cohort, the risk score had a C index of 0.768 (95% CI: 0.711-0.817); the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 2.76 (p=0.251), after recalibration.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The NT-proBNP risk score provides clinicians with a contemporary, accurate, easy-to-use, and validated predictive tool. Further validation in other datasets is advisable.
authors: Division of Cardiology and Cardiac Rehabilitation, "S. Maugeri" Foundation, IRCCS, Institute of Cassano Murge, Bari, Italy. Electronic address: domenico.scrutinio@fsm.it.
authors: Domenico
authors: D
authors: Scrutinio
authors: Enrico
authors: E
authors: Ammirati
authors: Pietro
authors: P
authors: Guida
authors: Andrea
authors: A
authors: Passantino
authors: Rosa
authors: R
authors: Raimondo
authors: Valentina
authors: V
authors: Guida
authors: Simona
authors: S
authors: Sarzi Braga
authors: Roberto F E
authors: RF
authors: Pedretti
authors: Rocco
authors: R
authors: Lagioia
authors: Maria
authors: M
authors: Frigerio
authors: Raffaella
authors: R
authors: Catanzaro
authors: Fabrizio
authors: F
authors: Oliva
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D002423:Cause of Death / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000097:blood* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain / Q000097:blood*; D010446:Peptide Fragments / Q000097:blood*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D016277:Ventricular Function, Left
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D010446:Peptide Fragments; C109794:pro-brain natriuretic peptide (1-76); D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain
keywords: Acute heart failure; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; Prognosis; Risk stratification