title: An analysis of the prevalence of malaria in Turkey over the last 85 years.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Affecting 106 countries, malaria is a major global burden. Though intensive antimalaria efforts in Turkey have been successful in bringing down the number of cases, historically malaria was a serious public health concern.
  
  
  METHODS
  This paper reviews the  prevalence rates of malaria in Turkey over the last 85 years (1925-2010). The time series of malaria prevalence was evaluated for possible structural changes by using Chow breakpoint tests and regression models using dummy variables, with autocorrelated errors and generalized autoregressive  conditional heteroscedasticity models to assess the impact of volatility in prevalence.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Seventy-eight cases of malaria were diagnosed in Turkey in 2010. Malaria prevalence rates in the country show a statistically significant volatility, which underlines the fragility of  efforts to control the disease.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It is necessary to analyse the national malaria control programme to evaluate to what extent its programmatic capacity, financial resources, and political commitment are sufficient to avoid eroding the gains that have already been made  and, ultimately, eradicate malaria. It is essential that there should be no lessening in the long-standing efforts to reduce malaria.
authors: Department of Public Health, Ankara Universitesi Tıp Fakultesi, Ankara, Turkey. birgul.piyal@yahoo.com
authors: Birgul
authors: B
authors: Piyal
authors: Recep
authors: R
authors: Akdur
authors: Esin
authors: E
authors: Ocaktan
authors: Ceylan
authors: C
authors: Yozgatligil
mesh_terms: D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D008288:Malaria / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history; D015995:Prevalence; D014421:Turkey / Q000453:epidemiology