title: Individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in Korea. The objective of the present study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men using population-based cohort data.
  
  
  METHODS
  From a population-based cohort study of 1,324,804 Korean men free of cancer at baseline, the individualized absolute risk of developing lung cancer was estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. We checked the validity of the model using C statistics and the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test on an external validation dataset.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men included smoking exposure, age at smoking initiation, body mass index, physical activity, and fasting glucose levels. The model showed excellent performance (C statistic = 0.871, 95% CI = 0.867-0.876). Smoking was significantly associated with the risk of lung cancer in Korean men, with a four-fold increased risk in current smokers consuming more than one pack a day relative to non-smokers. Age at smoking initiation was also a significant predictor for developing lung cancer; a younger age at initiation was associated with a higher risk of developing lung cancer.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This is the first study to provide an individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in an Asian population with very good model performance. In addition to current smoking status, earlier exposure to smoking was a very important factor for developing lung cancer. Since most of the risk factors are modifiable, this model can be used to identify those who are at a higher risk and who can subsequently modify their lifestyle choices to lower their risk of lung cancer.
authors: Biometric Research Branch, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Republic of Korea.
authors: Sohee
authors: S
authors: Park
authors: Byung-Ho
authors: BH
authors: Nam
authors: Hye-Ryung
authors: HR
authors: Yang
authors: Ji An
authors: JA
authors: Lee
authors: Hyunsun
authors: H
authors: Lim
authors: Jun Tae
authors: JT
authors: Han
authors: Il Su
authors: IS
authors: Park
authors: Hai-Rim
authors: HR
authors: Shin
authors: Jin Soo
authors: JS
authors: Lee
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D056910:Republic of Korea; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D016540:Smoking Cessation