title: Mathematical insights in evaluating state dependent effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions.
abstract: Mathematical models have been used to simulate HIV transmission and to study the use of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. Often a single intervention outcome over 10 years has been used to evaluate the effectiveness of PrEP interventions. However, different metrics express a wide variation over time and often disagree in their forecast on the success of the intervention. We develop a deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission and use it to evaluate the public-health impact of oral PrEP interventions. We study PrEP effectiveness with respect to different evaluation methods and analyze its dynamics over time. We compare four traditional indicators, based on cumulative number or fractions of infections prevented, on reduction in HIV prevalence or incidence and propose two additional methods, which estimate the burden of the epidemic to the public-health system. We investigate the short and long term behavior of these indicators and the effects of key parameters on the expected benefits from PrEP use. Our findings suggest that public-health officials considering adopting PrEP in HIV prevention programs can make better informed decisions by employing a set of complementing quantitative metrics.
authors: Department of Mathematics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA. Yuqin.Zhao@asu.edu
authors: Yuqin
authors: Y
authors: Zhao
authors: Dobromir T
authors: DT
authors: Dimitrov
authors: Hao
authors: H
authors: Liu
authors: Yang
authors: Y
authors: Kuang
mesh_terms: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006678:HIV; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D011634:Public Health / Q000379:methods
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents