title: ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.
abstract: A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients.
authors: Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. david.prieto@lshtm.ac.uk
authors: D
authors: D
authors: Prieto-Merino
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Dobson
authors: A K
authors: AK
authors: Gupta
authors: C-L
authors: CL
authors: Chang
authors: P S
authors: PS
authors: Sever
authors: B
authors: B
authors: Dahlöf
authors: H
authors: H
authors: Wedel
authors: S
authors: S
authors: Pocock
authors: N
authors: N
authors: Poulter
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors