title: A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010.
abstract: Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross-Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross-Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross-Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.
authors: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. rcreiner@ucdavis.edu
authors: Robert C
authors: RC
authors: Reiner
authors: T Alex
authors: TA
authors: Perkins
authors: Christopher M
authors: CM
authors: Barker
authors: Tianchan
authors: T
authors: Niu
authors: Luis Fernando
authors: LF
authors: Chaves
authors: Alicia M
authors: AM
authors: Ellis
authors: Dylan B
authors: DB
authors: George
authors: Arnaud
authors: A
authors: Le Menach
authors: Juliet R C
authors: JR
authors: Pulliam
authors: Donal
authors: D
authors: Bisanzio
authors: Caroline
authors: C
authors: Buckee
authors: Christinah
authors: C
authors: Chiyaka
authors: Derek A T
authors: DA
authors: Cummings
authors: Andres J
authors: AJ
authors: Garcia
authors: Michelle L
authors: ML
authors: Gatton
authors: Peter W
authors: PW
authors: Gething
authors: David M
authors: DM
authors: Hartley
authors: Geoffrey
authors: G
authors: Johnston
authors: Eili Y
authors: EY
authors: Klein
authors: Edwin
authors: E
authors: Michael
authors: Steven W
authors: SW
authors: Lindsay
authors: Alun L
authors: AL
authors: Lloyd
authors: David M
authors: DM
authors: Pigott
authors: William K
authors: WK
authors: Reisen
authors: Nick
authors: N
authors: Ruktanonchai
authors: Brajendra K
authors: BK
authors: Singh
authors: Andrew J
authors: AJ
authors: Tatem
authors: Uriel
authors: U
authors: Kitron
authors: Simon I
authors: SI
authors: Hay
authors: Thomas W
authors: TW
authors: Scott
authors: David L
authors: DL
authors: Smith
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D009033:Culicidae / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000821:virology*; D005843:Geography; D054884:Host-Pathogen Interactions; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000821:virology*; D008954:Models, Biological