title: Prediction of recanalization trumps prediction of tissue fate: the penumbra: a dual-edged sword.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether infarct core or penumbra is the more significant predictor of outcome in acute ischemic stroke, and whether the results are affected by the statistical method used.
  
  
  METHODS
  Clinical and imaging data were collected in 165 patients with acute ischemic stroke. We reviewed the noncontrast head computed tomography (CT) to determine the Alberta Score Program Early CT score and assess for hyperdense middle cerebral artery. We reviewed CT-angiogram for site of occlusion and collateral flow score. From perfusion-CT, we calculated the volumes of infarct core and ischemic penumbra. Recanalization status was assessed on early follow-up imaging. Clinical data included age, several time points, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at admission, treatment type, and modified Rankin score at 90 days. Two multivariate regression analyses were conducted to determine which variables predicted outcome best. In the first analysis, we did not include recanalization status among the potential predicting variables. In the second, we included recanalization status and its interaction between perfusion-CT variables.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among the 165 study patients, 76 had a good outcome (modified Rankin score ≤2) and 89 had a poor outcome (modified Rankin score >2). In our first analysis, the most important predictors were age (P<0.001) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at admission (P=0.001). The imaging variables were not important predictors of outcome (P>0.05). In the second analysis, when the recanalization status and its interaction with perfusion-CT variables were included, recanalization status and perfusion-CT penumbra volume became the significant predictors (P<0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Imaging prediction of tissue fate, more specifically imaging of the ischemic penumbra, matters only if recanalization can also be predicted.
authors: Department of Radiology, Neuroradiology Division, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22908, USA.
authors: Guangming
authors: G
authors: Zhu
authors: Patrik
authors: P
authors: Michel
authors: Amin
authors: A
authors: Aghaebrahim
authors: James T
authors: JT
authors: Patrie
authors: Wenjun
authors: W
authors: Xin
authors: Ashraf
authors: A
authors: Eskandari
authors: Weiwei
authors: W
authors: Zhang
authors: Max
authors: M
authors: Wintermark
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002545:Brain Ischemia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007091:Image Processing, Computer-Assisted; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010477:Perfusion; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy*; D013997:Time Factors; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed / Q000379:methods; D016896:Treatment Outcome