title: Reexamining the minimum viable population concept for long-lived species.
abstract: For decades conservation biologists have proposed general rules of thumb for minimum viable population size (MVP); typically, they range from hundreds to thousands of individuals. These rules have shifted conservation resources away from small and fragmented populations. We examined whether iteroparous, long-lived species might constitute an exception to general MVP guidelines. On the basis of results from a 10-year capture-recapture study in eastern New York (U.S.A.), we developed a comprehensive demographic model for the globally threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii), which is designated as endangered by the IUCN in 2011. We assessed population viability across a wide range of initial abundances and carrying capacities. Not accounting for inbreeding, our results suggest that bog turtle colonies with as few as 15 breeding females have >90% probability of persisting for >100 years, provided vital rates and environmental variance remain at currently estimated levels. On the basis of our results, we suggest that MVP thresholds may be 1-2 orders of magnitude too high for many long-lived organisms. Consequently, protection of small and fragmented populations may constitute a viable conservation option for such species, especially in a regional or metapopulation context.
authors: Department of Environmental and Forest Biology, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA. kevintshoemaker@gmail.com
authors: Kevin T
authors: KT
authors: Shoemaker
authors: Alvin R
authors: AR
authors: Breisch
authors: Jesse W
authors: JW
authors: Jaycox
authors: James P
authors: JP
authors: Gibbs
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D056727:Endangered Species; D008136:Longevity; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013045:Species Specificity; D013997:Time Factors; D014426:Turtles / Q000502:physiology*