title: [Trends and predictions of tuberculosis, and challenges towards tuberculosis eradication in Havana City].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To describe the variation and the trend of new tuberculosis case reports in Havana from 1995 to 2010, as well as their projection and occurrence for 2011-2013.
  
  
  METHODS
  A time series study was conducted, and the annual total and mean variation percentages of rates by clinical and bacteriological categories, age, municipal distribution and TB/HIV co-infection were analyzed. Estimation of projections by using two-parameter exponential smoothing techniques was made.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The rate of new reported TB cases decreased from 16.8 in 1995 to 9.5 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2010 (43.5% and 2.9% of annual total variation and mean variation respectively). The rate declined by 80% in the municipalities and in 15-64 and > or = 65 years age groups. Habana Vieja and Centro Habana municipalities kept the highest rates throughout the whole period. TB/HIV coinfection notification increased from 3 out of 369 (0.8%) cases in 1995 to 37 out of 202 (18.3%) cases in 2010. A slight increase was estimated for the 2011-2013 period (9.5; 10.0; 10.5 per 100 000 population respectively) in addition to continuous rise of the number of cases with TB/HIV co-infection.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The TB trend showed a steady decline in Havana from 1995 to 2010, with substantial reduction in the study period, except for TB/HIV co-infection in which the number of cases increases. The TB case report rates are within the expected values, although slightly above the predictions.
authors: Instituto de Medicina Tropical "Pedro Kourí", La Habana, Cuba.
authors: Alexander
authors: A
authors: González Díaz
authors: Lizet
authors: L
authors: Sánchez Valdés
authors: Luisa
authors: L
authors: Armas Pérez
authors: Liana
authors: L
authors: Rodríguez Vargas
authors: Armando
authors: A
authors: Salgado Villavicencio
authors: Herminia
authors: H
authors: Borrero Pérez
authors: Edilberto
authors: E
authors: González-Ochoa
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003462:Cuba / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D014504:Urban Health; D055815:Young Adult