title: Optimism following a tornado disaster.
abstract: Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.
authors: Department of Psychology, University of Iowa, City, IA 52242, USA. jerry-suls@uiowa.edu
authors: Jerry
authors: J
authors: Suls
authors: Jason P
authors: JP
authors: Rose
authors: Paul D
authors: PD
authors: Windschitl
authors: Andrew R
authors: AR
authors: Smith
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001290:Attitude; D004190:Disasters; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010465:Perception; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012306:Risk; D013997:Time Factors; D055869:Tornadoes; D035862:Vulnerable Populations