title: Potentially preventable incidence of diabetes due to risk factor modification.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Increasing diabetes incidence demands investigation of risk factors, prioritization and designing modification interventions. We calculated the potential modifiable incidence of diabetes due to reduction in risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used counterfactual analysis model to estimate avoidable burden of incident diabetes related to each risk factor. The potential impact fraction (PIF) index calculated utilizing the data of current prevalence, magnitude of impact and counterfactual status of risk factors. We considered the levels of evidence while giving higher priority to domestic data.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The estimated PIF regarding minimum feasible risk for the impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), combined IFG/IGT, low HDL, high triglyceride, high total cholesterol, hypertension, general obesity, central obesity and physical inactivity were 0.13, 0.10, 0.18, 0.01, 0.12, 0.03, 0.13, 0.03, 0.02 and 0.10, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  While the combined risk factors of IFG and IGT should be noticed as the most important potential factor in prevention of diabetes and reducing its incidence burden, among the other risk factors, modification of hypertension, high triglyceride, and physical inactivity could have more impact.
authors.affiliation: Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, P,O,Box: 1411413137, Tehran, Iran. larijani@tums.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Seyed Mohammad Kalantar
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Motamedi
authors.forename: Reza
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Majdzadeh
authors.forename: Fatemeh Ardeshir
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: Larijani
authors.forename: Fakher
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Raheem
authors.forename: Zahra
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Koleini
authors.forename: Bagher
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Larijani