title: Air pollutant emissions from vehicles in China under various energy scenarios.
abstract: Estimations of air pollutant emissions from vehicles in China under different energy and emission abatement policy scenarios are presented in this paper. Three scenarios are designed: (i) "business as usual" (BAU); (ii) "advanced fuel economy" (AFE); and (iii) "alternative energy replacement" (AER). The CO, VOCs, NOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions are predicted to reach 105.8, 5.9, 7.5, 1.1, and 3522.6 million tons, respectively, in the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE scenario, the CO, VOCs, NOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions in 2030 will be abated by 23.8%, 18.6%, 25.3%, 18.2%, and 24.5% respectively compared with the BAU scenario. In the AER scenario, the CO and VOCs in 2030 will be further reduced by 15.9% and 6.1% respectively, while NOx, PM10, and CO2 will be increased by 10.7%, 33.3%, and 2.0% compared with AFE. In conclusion, our models indicate that the emission abatement policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. qy_zhang@zju.edu.cn
authors.forename: Qingyu
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Guojin
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.forename: Simai
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Weili
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.forename: Xiaoxiao
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Huiyu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005742:Gasoline; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018986:Motor Vehicles / Q000592:standards; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D005742:Gasoline; D001335:Vehicle Emissions