title: [Spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation in rice growth period in Fujian Province of East China and the effects of this distribution on rice planting pattern].
abstract: In order to investigate the effects of climate change on the rice production and rice planting pattern in Fujian Province, an analysis was made on the spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation in rice growth period in the Province, and the possible changes of the local rice planting pattern in the future, based on the A2, B2, and A1 B scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES). In the future, the rice growth period's air temperature in the Province tended to be increased, and the increment would be increased with time, with the maximum for single cropping rice and being 0.3-2.4 degrees C and 1.5-3.4 degrees C in 2011-2030 and 2031 -2050, respectively. For early rice and late rice, the increment of their growth period's air temperature would be 0.2-0.9 degrees C and 0.7-1.7 degrees C in 2011-2030 and 0.3-2.1 degrees C and 0.5-3.6 degrees C in 2031-2050, respectively, but the annual fluctuation of the mean daily temperature would be most obvious for late rice. The rice growth period's precipitation in most parts of the Province also tended to be increased, and the increment for early rice, single cropping rice, and late rice would be 10%-40%, 10%-30%, and 10%-20%, respectively. The annual fluctuation of the precipitation would be most obvious for the early rice in southeastern Fujian. The elevated air temperature in the future could induce the increase of > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature, and lengthen the rice growth season, making it possible to replace early and medium-maturity varieties with late-maturity varieties, and to adopt double-rice planting pattern instead of single-rice planting pattern.
authors.affiliation: College of Crop Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China. fjaujm@163.com
authors.forename: Min
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.forename: Zhi-Qing
authors.initials: ZQ
authors.lastname: Jin
authors.forename: Hui
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Chun-Lin
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.forename: Chao-Zhi
authors.initials: CZ
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.forename: Wen-Xiong
authors.initials: WX
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D012275:Oryza / Q000254:growth & development*; D011891:Rain; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D013696:Temperature