title: Cardiovascular disease risk scores in identifying future frailty: the Whitehall II prospective cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine the capacity of existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms widely used in primary care, to predict frailty.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study. Risk algorithms at baseline (1997-1999) were the Framingham CVD, coronary heart disease and stroke risk scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation.
  
  
  METHODS
  Civil Service departments in London, UK.
  
  
  METHODS
  3895 participants (73% men) aged 45-69 years and free of CVD at baseline.
  
  
  METHODS
  Status of frailty at the end of follow-up (2007-2009), based on the following indicators: self-reported exhaustion, low physical activity, slow walking speed, low grip strength and weight loss.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At the end of the follow-up, 2.8% (n=108) of the sample was classified as frail. All four CVD risk scores were associated with future risk of developing frailty, with ORs per one SD increment in the score ranging from 1.35 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.51) for the Framingham stroke score to 1.42 (1.23 to 1.62) for the Framingham CVD score. These associations remained after excluding incident CVD cases. For comparison, the corresponding ORs for the risk scores and incident cardiovascular events varied between 1.36 (1.15 to 1.61) and 1.64 (1.50 to 1.80) depending on the risk algorithm.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The use of CVD risk scores in clinical practice may also have utility for frailty prediction.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 6BT, UK. kim.bouillon.09@ucl.ac.uk
authors.forename: Kim
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Bouillon
authors.forename: G David
authors.initials: GD
authors.lastname: Batty
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hamer
authors.forename: Severine
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sabia
authors.forename: Martin J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Shipley
authors.forename: Annie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Britton
authors.forename: Archana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Singh-Manoux
authors.forename: Mika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kivimäki
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D000072038:Cardiac Rehabilitation; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D016330:Frail Elderly / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D009043:Motor Activity; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011788:Quality of Life; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors