title: Changing risk factors that impact recidivism: in search of mechanisms of change.
abstract: The present study examined whether treatment change among offenders under community supervision would predict reductions in recidivism. The intervention program, based on cognitive-behavioral principles, focused on changing antisocial attitudes. Compared to a matched control group, the likelihood of reduced recidivism was 57% for the binary outcome and 70% for the multiple count outcome, after controlling for past program participation, propensity score, and days of opportunity to offend. The within-person pre-/postchange scores showed less promise in predicting recidivism. Only changes with a single antisocial associate measure, which were not central to the treatment program, predicted future recidivism. Caution must be used in the idiographic assessment of dynamic risk and treatment change.
authors.affiliation: Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
authors.forename: Daryl G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Kroner
authors.forename: Annie K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Yessine
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000987:Antisocial Personality Disorder / Q000628:therapy*; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003415:Crime / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D012307:Risk Factors; D057566:Self Report; D016896:Treatment Outcome