title: How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?
abstract: Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) ) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO2 -eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO2 -eq. yr(-1) ), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.
authors.affiliation: University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.
authors.forename: Pete
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Helmut
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Haberl
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Popp
authors.forename: Karl-Heinz
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Erb
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lauk
authors.forename: Richard
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authors.lastname: Harper
authors.forename: Francesco N
authors.initials: FN
authors.lastname: Tubiello
authors.forename: Alexandre
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: de Siqueira Pinto
authors.forename: Mostafa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jafari
authors.forename: Saran
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sohi
authors.forename: Omar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Masera
authors.forename: Hannes
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Böttcher
authors.forename: Göran
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Berndes
authors.forename: Mercedes
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bustamante
authors.forename: Helal
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ahammad
authors.forename: Harry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Clark
authors.forename: Hongmin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.forename: Elnour A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Elsiddig
authors.forename: Cheikh
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mbow
authors.forename: Nijavalli H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Ravindranath
authors.forename: Charles W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Rice
authors.forename: Carmenza
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Robledo Abad
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Romanovskaya
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Sperling
authors.forename: Mario
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Herrero
authors.forename: Joanna I
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: House
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rose
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005523:Food Supply; D016468:Forestry; D005740:Gases; D017752:Greenhouse Effect / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans
chemical_list: D005740:Gases
keywords: AFOLU; GHG; agriculture; climate; ecosystem services; food security; forestry; mitigation