title: A simple score for predicting paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in acute ischemic stroke.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Our aim in this study was to investigate factors associated with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) in acute stroke patients and to develop a risk score to predict the presence of PAF.
  
  
  METHODS
  We retrospectively enrolled patients with acute ischemic stroke within 24h of onset between June 2006 and April 2008. Patients with sustained AF were excluded. Patients were divided into two groups according to the presence of PAF: the PAF group or the non-PAF group. The clinical factors associated with PAF were investigated. Furthermore, we devised a new risk score to predict the presence of PAF.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were 215 patients enrolled. The PAF group had 32 (14.9%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that NIHSS score≥8 (OR, 4.2; 1.38-12.88), left atrial size≥3.8 cm (OR, 4.8; 1.65-13.66), mitral valvular disease (OR, 7.5; 2.17-25.90), and plasma BNP level≥144 pg/ml (OR, 12.8; 4.12-40.00) were independent factors associated with PAF. We developed a risk score from these variables (total score 0 to 5): NIHSS score≥8 (1 point); left atrial size≥3.8 cm (1 point); mitral valvular disease (1 point); and BNP level≥144 pg/ml (2 points). The frequency of PAF was 0% with a score of 0, 4% with a score of 1, 14% with a score of 2, 26% with a score of 3, 50% with a score of 4 and 100% with a score of 5
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our simple score can predict the presence of PAF during hospitalization in acute ischemic stroke.
authors.affiliation: Department of Stroke Medicine, Kawasaki Medical School, Kurashiki, Japan. 99076sf@jichi.ac.jp
authors.forename: Shuichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fujii
authors.forename: Kensaku
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Shibazaki
authors.forename: Kazumi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kimura
authors.forename: Kenichiro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sakai
authors.forename: Junya
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Aoki
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology*; D015992:Body Mass Index; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain / Q000097:blood; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D020521:Stroke / Q000150:complications*; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed
chemical_list: D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain