title: Strategy to estimate risk progression of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular risk, and referral to nephrology: the EPIRCE Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is 10–14%, several prospective studies note a low rate of progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in stages 3 and 4. A correct classification of risk of progression, based on demonstrated predictive factors, would allow better management of CKD. Recent studies have demonstrated the high predictive value of a classification that combines estimated (e) glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and urine albumin–creatinine ratio (ACR). We estimated the clinical risk of progression to ESRD and cardiovascular mortality predicted by the combined variable of eGFR and ACR in the Spanish general population.
  
  
  METHODS
  This study was a cross-sectional evaluation in the Epirce sample, representative of Spanish population older than 20 years. GFR was estimated using MDRD and CKD-EPI formulas; microalbuminuria was considered to be an ACR 20–200 mg/g (men) or 30–300 mg/g (women) and macroalbuminuria was indicated beyond these limits. Population-weighted prevalence of risk of progression of CKD to ESRD was estimated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With MDRD, 1.4% of the adult Spanish population was at moderate risk of progression to ESRD, 0.1% at high risk, and 12.3% at low risk. With CKD-EPI, the moderate risk ratio rose to 1.7% and low risk to 12.6%, but high risk remained stable.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The addition of ACR to eGFR best classifies the population at risk for renal impairment relative to Kidney/Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative grades 3 and 4. Estimating GFR with CKD-EPI modifies the distribution of low and moderate risk.
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Epidemiología Clínica, Complexo Hospitalario Universitario de Santiago, Santiago de Compostela, A Coruña, Spain. pilar.gayoso.diz@sergas.es
authors.forename: Pilar
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Gayoso-Diz
authors.forename: Alfonso
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Otero-González
authors.forename: M Xosé
authors.initials: MX
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Álvarez
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: García
authors.forename: Arturo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: González-Quintela
authors.forename: Angel L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Martin de Francisco
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005919:Glomerular Filtration Rate; D006801:Humans; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009398:Nephrology; D012017:Referral and Consultation; D051436:Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013030:Spain