title: Ocular hypertension and the risk of blindness.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the risk of blindness in patients with ocular hypertension (OHT) using an appropriate model and current empirical data.
  
  
  METHODS
  A Markov model with data from a systematic literature review.
  
  
  METHODS
  A Markov model with 3 health states was built: OHT, primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), and unilateral blindness. Literature was searched for reports on conversion from OHT to POAG and progression from POAG to blindness, to estimate a range of annual conversion and progression probabilities. The model had a cycle length of 1 year.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 15-year risk estimates ranged from 3.1% to 9.4% in untreated, and from 0.9% to 8.6% in treated patients with OHT. The ranges were the result of differences in patient populations, treatments, and outcome definitions in currently available empirical data.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The best estimates of the 15-year risk of unilateral blindness in patients with OHT, based on the currently available empirical data and an appropriate model, show that the risk is <10%.
authors.affiliation: *University Eye Clinic †Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht ‡Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Aukje
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: van Gestel
authors.forename: Carroll A B
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Webers
authors.forename: Henny J M
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Beckers
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Peeters
authors.forename: Johan L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Severens
authors.forename: Jan S A G
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Schouten
mesh_terms: D001766:Blindness / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology*; D005902:Glaucoma, Open-Angle / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D007429:Intraocular Pressure; D008390:Markov Chains; D009798:Ocular Hypertension / Q000150:complications*; D011336:Probability; D012307:Risk Factors