title: Prediction of the Oncotype DX recurrence score: use of pathology-generated equations derived by linear regression analysis.
abstract: Oncotype DX is a commercial assay frequently used for making chemotherapy decisions in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. The result is reported as a recurrence score ranging from 0 to 100, divided into low-risk (<18), intermediate-risk (18-30), and high-risk (≥31) categories. Our pilot study showed that recurrence score can be predicted by an equation incorporating standard morphoimmunohistologic variables (referred to as original Magee equation). Using a data set of 817 cases, we formulated three additional equations (referred to as new Magee equations 1, 2, and 3) to predict the recurrence score category for an independent set of 255 cases. The concordance between the risk category of Oncotype DX and our equations was 54.3%, 55.8%, 59.4%, and 54.4% for original Magee equation, new Magee equations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. When the intermediate category was eliminated, the concordance increased to 96.9%, 100%, 98.6%, and 98.7% for original Magee equation, new Magee equations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Even when the estimated recurrence score fell in the intermediate category with any of the equations, the actual recurrence score was either intermediate or low in more than 80% of the cases. Any of the four equations can be used to estimate the recurrence score depending on available data. If the estimated recurrence score is clearly high or low, the oncologists should not expect a dramatically different result from Oncotype DX, and the Oncotype DX test may not be needed. Conversely, an Oncotype DX result that is dramatically different from what is expected based on standard morphoimmunohistologic variables should be thoroughly investigated.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA.
authors.forename: Molly E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Dabbs
authors.forename: Yongli
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Shuai
authors.forename: Adam M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Brufsky
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Jankowitz
authors.forename: Shannon L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Puhalla
authors.forename: Rohit
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bhargava
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000032:analysis / Q000235:genetics; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000235:genetics*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D020869:Gene Expression Profiling; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000235:genetics*
chemical_list: D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor