title: Random modelling of contagious diseases.
abstract: Modelling contagious diseases needs to include a mechanistic knowledge about contacts between hosts and pathogens as specific as possible, e.g., by incorporating in the model information about social networks through which the disease spreads. The unknown part concerning the contact mechanism can be modelled using a stochastic approach. For that purpose, we revisit SIR models by introducing first a microscopic stochastic version of the contacts between individuals of different populations (namely Susceptible, Infective and Recovering), then by adding a random perturbation in the vicinity of the endemic fixed point of the SIR model and eventually by introducing the definition of various types of random social networks. We propose as example of application to contagious diseases the HIV, and we show that a micro-simulation of individual based modelling (IBM) type can reproduce the current stable incidence of the HIV epidemic in a population of HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM).
authors.affiliation: AGIM, FRE, CNRS 3405, Faculty of Medicine of Grenoble, University J. Fourier, 38700 La Tronche, France. Jacques.Demongeot@yahoo.fr
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Demongeot
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Hansen
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hessami
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Jannot
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mintsa
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rachdi
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Taramasco
mesh_terms: D003141:Communicable Diseases; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013269:Stochastic Processes