title: Information overload or search-amplified risk? Set size and order effects on decisions from experience.
abstract: How do changes in choice-set size influence information search and subsequent decisions? Moreover, does information overload influence information processing with larger choice sets? We investigated these questions by letting people freely explore sets of gambles before choosing one of them, with the choice sets either increasing or decreasing in number for each participant (from two to 32 gambles). Set size influenced information search, with participants taking more samples overall, but sampling a smaller proportion of gambles and taking fewer samples per gamble, when set sizes were larger. The order of choice sets also influenced search, with participants sampling from more gambles and taking more samples overall if they started with smaller as opposed to larger choice sets. Inconsistent with information overload, information processing appeared consistent across set sizes and choice order conditions, reliably favoring gambles with higher sample means. Despite the lack of evidence for information overload, changes in information search did lead to systematic changes in choice: People who started with smaller choice sets were more likely to choose gambles with the highest expected values, but only for small set sizes. For large set sizes, the increase in total samples increased the likelihood of encountering rare events at the same time that the reduction in samples per gamble amplified the effect of these rare events when they occurred-what we call search-amplified risk. This led to riskier choices for individuals whose choices most closely followed the sample mean.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Gibett Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK, thomhills@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Thomas T
authors.initials: TT
authors.lastname: Hills
authors.forename: Takao
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Noguchi
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gibbert
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002755:Choice Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D005715:Gambling / Q000523:psychology*; D006801:Humans; D012309:Risk-Taking; D055815:Young Adult