title: Predicting climate change impacts on the amount and duration of autumn colors in a New England forest.
abstract: Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.
authors.affiliation: Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America. m.archetti@uea.ac.uk
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Archetti
authors.forename: Andrew D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Richardson
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: O'Keefe
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Delpierre
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D008954:Models, Biological; D009511:New England; D010858:Pigmentation / Q000502:physiology*; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors; D014197:Trees / Q000502:physiology*