title: Pathogen mutation modeled by competition between site and bond percolation.
abstract: While disease propagation is a main focus of network science, its coevolution with treatment has yet to be studied in this framework. We present a mean-field and stochastic analysis of an epidemic model with antiviral administration and resistance development. We show how this model maps to a coevolutive competition between site and bond percolation featuring hysteresis and both second- and first-order phase transitions. The latter, whose existence on networks is a long-standing question, imply that a microscopic change in infection rate can lead to macroscopic jumps in expected epidemic size.
authors.affiliation: Département de Physique, de Génie Physique, et d'Optique, Université Laval, Québec, Québec, Canada G1V 0A6.
authors.forename: Laurent
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hébert-Dufresne
authors.forename: Oscar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Patterson-Lomba
authors.forename: Georg M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Goerg
authors.forename: Benjamin M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Althouse
mesh_terms: D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000628:therapy; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D008957:Models, Genetic; D017720:Molecular Epidemiology; D009154:Mutation; D013269:Stochastic Processes