title: Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe.
abstract: Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark. jonathan.lenoir@u-picardie.fr
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lenoir
authors.forename: Bente Jessen
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authors.forename: Per Arild
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authors.forename: Hans Henrik
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Bruun
authors.forename: Carl Johan
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authors.forename: Guillaume
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authors.lastname: Decocq
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authors.forename: Rasmus
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authors.lastname: Ejrnaes
authors.forename: John-Arvid
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Grytnes
authors.forename: Kristoffer
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authors.lastname: Hylander
authors.forename: Kari
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Klanderud
authors.forename: Miska
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authors.lastname: Luoto
authors.forename: Ann
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Milbau
authors.forename: Mari
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authors.lastname: Moora
authors.forename: Bettina
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Nygaard
authors.forename: Arvid
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authors.lastname: Odland
authors.forename: Virve Tuulia
authors.initials: VT
authors.lastname: Ravolainen
authors.forename: Stefanie
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authors.lastname: Reinhardt
authors.forename: Sylvi Marlen
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Sandvik
authors.forename: Fride Høistad
authors.initials: FH
authors.lastname: Schei
authors.forename: James David Mervyn
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Speed
authors.forename: Liv Unn
authors.initials: LU
authors.lastname: Tveraabak
authors.forename: Vigdis
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Vandvik
authors.forename: Liv Guri
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Velle
authors.forename: Risto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Virtanen
authors.forename: Martin
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authors.lastname: Zobel
authors.forename: Jens-Christian
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Svenning
mesh_terms: D058448:Biota; D057231:Climate Change; D005060:Europe; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018521:Plant Physiological Phenomena; D013696:Temperature