title: Personalized prediction of first-cycle in vitro fertilization success.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To test whether the probability of having a live birth (LB) with the first IVF cycle (C1) can be predicted and personalized for patients in diverse environments.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective validation of multicenter prediction model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Three university-affiliated outpatient IVF clinics located in different countries.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using primary models aggregated from >13,000 C1s, we applied the boosted tree method to train a preIVF-diversity model (PreIVF-D) with 1,061 C1s from 2008 to 2009, and validated predicted LB probabilities with an independent dataset comprising 1,058 C1s from 2008 to 2009.
  
  
  METHODS
  None.
  
  
  METHODS
  Predictive power, reclassification, receiver operator characteristic analysis, calibration, dynamic range.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Overall, with PreIVF-D, 86% of cases had significantly different LB probabilities compared with age control, and more than one-half had higher LB probabilities. Specifically, 42% of patients could have been identified by PreIVF-D to have a personalized predicted success rate >45%, whereas an age-control model could not differentiate them from others. Furthermore, PreIVF-D showed improved predictive power, with 36% improved log-likelihood (or 9.0-fold by log-scale; >1,000-fold linear scale), and prediction errors for subgroups ranged from 0.9% to 3.7%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Validated prediction of personalized LB probabilities from diverse multiple sources identify excellent prognoses in more than one-half of patients.
authors.affiliation: Univfy, Los Altos, California 94022, USA.
authors.forename: Bokyung
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.forename: Ernesto
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bosch
authors.forename: Benjamin M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Lannon
authors.forename: Marie-Claude
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Leveille
authors.forename: Wing H
authors.initials: WH
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.forename: Arthur
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Leader
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pellicer
authors.forename: Alan S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Penzias
authors.forename: Mylene W M
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Yao
mesh_terms: D001900:Boston; D002170:Canada; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D005307:Fertilization in Vitro; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D050498:Live Birth; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009864:Ontario; D057285:Precision Medicine; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D011336:Probability; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013030:Spain; D016896:Treatment Outcome