title: Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments.
abstract: Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) is a common pantropical urban mosquito, vector of dengue, Yellow Fever and chikungunya viruses. Studies have shown Ae. aegypti abundance to be associated with environmental fluctuations, revealing patterns such as the occurrence of delayed mosquito outbreaks, i.e., sudden extraordinary increases in mosquito abundance following transient extreme high temperatures. Here, we use a two-stage (larvae and adults) matrix model to propose a mechanism for environmental signal canalization into demographic parameters of Ae. aegypti that could explain delayed high temperature induced mosquito outbreaks. We performed model simulations using parameters estimated from a weekly time series from Thailand, assuming either independent or autocorrelated environments. For autocorrelated environments, we found that long delays in the association between the onset of "hot" environments and mosquito outbreaks (10 weeks, as observed in Thailand) can be generated when "hot" environments sequentially trigger a larval survival decrease and over-compensatory fecundity increase, which lasts for the whole "hot" period, in conjunction with a larval survival increase followed by a fecundity decrease when the environment returns to "normal". This result was not observed for independent environments. Finally, we discuss our results implications for prospective entomological research and vector management under changing environments.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan; Programa de Investigación en Enfermedades Tropicales, Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional, P.O. Box 304-3000, Heredia, Costa Rica; Graduate School of Environmental Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0810, Japan. Electronic address: lchaves@nagasaki-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Luis Fernando
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: Chaves
authors.forename: Thomas W
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Scott
authors.forename: Amy C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Morrison
authors.forename: Takenori
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Takada
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000528:radiation effects; D018354:Alphavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000818:Animals; D065632:Chikungunya Fever; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004777:Environment; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000528:radiation effects; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013785:Thailand / Q000453:epidemiology; D015004:Yellow Fever / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: Climate change; Density dependence; Lefkovitch matrix; Population delay; Trade-offs