title: Trends in predicted 10-year risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease among U.S. adults from 1999 to 2010.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The objective of this study was to examine trends in predicted 10-year risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) from 1999 to 2000 and from 2009 to 2010 among adults in the United States.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Examining trends in predicted risk for CHD and CVD may offer insights into the direction of cardiovascular health.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from 7,751 fasting participants, ages 30 to 74 years, of 6 consecutive 2-year cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. Predicted 10-year risk for CHD and CVD was calculated using risk equations derived from data from the Framingham Heart Study.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mean predicted 10-year risk for CHD was 7.2% during 1999 to 2000 and 6.5% during 2009 to 2010 (p for linear trend = 0.005), and for CVD it was 9.2% during 1999 to 2000 and 8.7% during 2009 to 2010 (p for linear trend = 0.152). Mean predicted risk for CHD and CVD declined significantly among participants ages 40 to 49 years, 50 to 59 years, 60 to 74 years, and among women. Mean predicted risk for CHD declined significantly among men and whites but nonsignificantly among Mexican Americans (p for linear trend = 0.067). Mean predicted risk increased nonsignificantly among African Americans for both CHD (p for linear trend = 0.063) and CVD (p for linear trend = 0.059). Of the modifiable cardiovascular risk factors included in the risk equations, favorable trends were noted for mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure, mean concentrations of total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking status. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus worsened.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Predicted 10-year risk for CHD improved modestly. Reversing the seemingly rising trend in risk among African-American adults should be a high priority.
authors.affiliation: Division of Population Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30341, USA. eford@cdc.gov
authors.forename: Earl S
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Ford
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D001794:Blood Pressure; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000097:blood; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008075:Lipoproteins, HDL / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D044469:Racial Groups / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012306:Risk; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D008075:Lipoproteins, HDL; D002784:Cholesterol
references.citation: Circulation. 1998 May 12;97(18):1837-47
references.pmid: 9603539
references.citation: Circulation. 2008 Feb 12;117(6):743-53
references.pmid: 18212285
references.citation: Prev Med. 2009 Oct;49(4):292-3
references.pmid: 19683545
references.citation: Circulation. 2013 Jan 1;127(1):e6-e245
references.pmid: 23239837
references.citation: Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes. 2009 Sep;2(5):443-50
references.pmid: 20031875
references.citation: J Am Coll Cardiol. 2006 Sep 19;48(6):1177-82
references.pmid: 16979002