title: Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks.
abstract: Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible-worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods.
authors.affiliation: University of Tennessee-Knoxville, 1115 Volunteer Blvd., 1018 McClung Tower, Knoxville, TN, USA.
authors.forename: Bruce
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Tonn
authors.forename: Dorian
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Stiefel
mesh_terms: D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006801:Humans; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*
keywords: Assessment of methods; estimating existential risks; evaluation of methods; existential risk; human extinction