title: Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine.
abstract: For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine.
authors.affiliation: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. edeyle@ucsd.edu
authors.forename: Ethan R
authors.initials: ER
authors.lastname: Deyle
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fogarty
authors.forename: Chih-hao
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Hsieh
authors.forename: Les
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kaufman
authors.forename: Alec D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: MacCall
authors.forename: Stephan B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Munch
authors.forename: Charles T
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Perretti
authors.forename: Hao
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ye
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Sugihara
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D005398:Fisheries / Q000379:methods*; D005399:Fishes / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013997:Time Factors
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