title: Estimating air chemical emissions from research activities using stack measurement data.
abstract: Current methods of estimating air emissions from research and development (R&D) activities use a wide range of release fractions or emission factors with bases ranging from empirical to semi-empirical. Although considered conservative, the uncertainties and confidence levels of the existing methods have not been reported. Chemical emissions were estimated from sampling data taken from four research facilities over 10 years. The approach was to use a Monte Carlo technique to create distributions of annual emission estimates for target compounds detected in source test samples. Distributions were created for each year and building sampled for compounds with sufficient detection frequency to qualify for the analysis. The results using the Monte Carlo technique without applying a filter to remove negative emission values showed almost all distributions spanning zero, and 40% of the distributions having a negative mean. This indicates that emissions are so low as to be indistinguishable from building background. Application of a filter to allow only positive values in the distribution provided a more realistic value for emissions and increased the distribution mean by an average of 16%. Release fractions were calculated by dividing the emission estimates by a building chemical inventory quantity. Two variations were used for this quantity: chemical usage, and chemical usage plus one-half standing inventory. Filters were applied so that only release fraction values from zero to one were included in the resulting distributions. Release fractions had a wide range among chemicals and among data sets for different buildings and/or years for a given chemical. Regressions of release fractions to molecular weight and vapor pressure showed weak correlations. Similarly, regressions of mean emissions to chemical usage, chemical inventory, molecular weight, and vapor pressure also gave weak correlations. These results highlight the difficulties in estimating emissions from R&D facilities using chemical inventory data.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Air emissions from research operations are difficult to estimate because of the changing nature of research processes and the small quantity and wide variety of chemicals used. Analysis of stack measurements taken over multiple facilities and a 10-year period using a Monte Carlo technique provided a method to quantify the low emissions and to estimate release fractions based on chemical inventories. The variation in release fractions did not correlate well with factors investigated, confirming the complexities in estimating R&D emissions.
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Battelle Seattle Research Center Seattle, Washington, USA. marcel.ballinger@pnnl.gov
authors.forename: Marcel Y
authors.initials: MY
authors.lastname: Ballinger
authors.forename: Cheryl J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Duchsherer
authors.forename: Rodger K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Woodruff
authors.forename: Timothy V
authors.initials: TV
authors.lastname: Larson
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants