title: Observations from old forests underestimate climate change effects on tree mortality.
abstract: Understanding climate change-associated tree mortality is central to linking climate change impacts and forest structure and function. However, whether temporal increases in tree mortality are attributed to climate change or stand developmental processes remains uncertain. Furthermore, interpreting the climate change-associated tree mortality estimated from old forests for regional forests rests on an un-tested assumption that the effects of climate change are the same for young and old forests. Here we disentangle the effects of climate change and stand developmental processes on tree mortality. We show that both climate change and forest development processes influence temporal mortality increases, climate change-associated increases are significantly higher in young than old forests, and higher increases in younger forests are a result of their higher sensitivity to regional warming and drought. We anticipate our analysis to be a starting point for more comprehensive examinations of how forest ecosystems might respond to climate change.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Road, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada P7B 5E1.
authors.forename: Yong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.forename: Han Y H
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D055864:Droughts; D014197:Trees
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