title: Probability and predictors of relapse to smoking: results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Oviedo, 33003 Oviedo, Spain; New York State Psychiatric Institute, Department of Psychiatry, College of Physicians and Surgeons of Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. Electronic address: garciaolaya@uniovi.es.
authors.forename: Olaya
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: García-Rodríguez
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Secades-Villa
authors.forename: Ludwing
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Flórez-Salamanca
authors.forename: Mayumi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Okuda
authors.forename: Shang-Min
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Blanco
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: NESARC; National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions; Probability; Relapse; Smoking; Tobacco