title: Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
abstract: Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred.
authors.affiliation: Theoretical Ecology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. M.C.Boerlijst@uva.nl
authors.forename: Maarten C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Boerlijst
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Oudman
authors.forename: André M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: de Roos
mesh_terms: D004190:Disasters; D004463:Ecology / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D008962:Models, Theoretical