title: Multi-annual fluctuations in reconstructed historical time-series of a European lobster (Homarus gammarus) population disappear at increased exploitation levels.
abstract: Through the history of ecology, fluctuations of populations have been a dominating topic, and endogenous causes of fluctuations and oscillations have been recognized and studied for more than 80 years. Here we analyzed an historical dataset, covering more than 130 years, of European lobster (Homarus gammarus) catches. The data shows periodic fluctuations, which are first dampened and then disappear over time. The disappearance of the periodicity coincided with a substantial increase in fishing effort and the oscillations have not reappeared in the time series. The shifting baseline syndrome has changed our perception of not only the status of the stock, but also the regulating pressures. We describe the transition of a naturally regulated lobster population into a heavily exploited fisheries controlled stock. This is shown by the incorporation of environmental and endogenous processes in generalized additive models, autocorrelation functions and periodicity analyses of time-series.
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lysekil, Sweden.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sundelöf
authors.forename: Valerio
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Bartolino
authors.forename: Mats
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ulmestrand
authors.forename: Massimiliano
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cardinale
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005398:Fisheries / Q000266:history*; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008121:Nephropidae; D009659:North Sea; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013548:Sweden