title: A mathematical model to predict short-term recurrence and metastasis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma larger than 10 cm in diameter.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To construct a mathematical model to predict short-term recurrence and metastasis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) larger than 10 cm in diameter after radical resection and analyze the influencing factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 166 patients with primary HCC larger than 10 cm were recruited from January 2002 to December 2010. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed and a mathematic model predicting the recurrence of HCC at different time points was constructed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Univariable analysis showed preoperative serum AFP of ≥1210 ng/mL (X4), intraoperative macroscopic tumor thrombus (X7) and postoperative pathological grade (X11) were related to the recurrence within 6 months after surgery. Preoperative serum AFP of ≥1210 ng/mL (X4) and microscopic tumor thrombus (X10) were associated with the recurrence within 6-12 months after surgery. Multivariable analysis revealed the risk factors of recurrence within 6 months and 6-12 months after surgery included preoperative serum AFP of ≥1210 ng/mL (X4) and intra-operative macroscopic tumor thrombus (X7); those within 6-12 months after surgery were preoperative serum AFP of ≥1210 ng/mL (X4) and microscopic tumor thrombus (X10).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Preoperative serum AFP and blood vessel involvement are risk factors of short-term recurrence/metastasis of huge HCC after surgery. The equation for prediction of HCC recurrence at different time points varies.
authors.affiliation: The First Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.
authors.forename: Xinhui
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.forename: Na
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ya
authors.forename: Jinhua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.forename: Yongyi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.forename: Chuang
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.forename: Minhui
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chi
authors.forename: Yanbin
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Yuntong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Aimin
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Jingfeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006498:Hepatectomy; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000209:etiology*; D013997:Time Factors; D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D000509:alpha-Fetoproteins