title: Population aging and endogenous economic growth.
abstract: We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
authors.affiliation: Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA ; Institute for International Economics, University of Göttingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Prettner
keywords: Demographic change; Long-run economic growth; Technological progress