title: More frequent occurrence of westerly disturbances in Karakoram up to 2100.
abstract: The globally averaged mass balance of glaciers and ice caps is negative, but an anomalous gain of mass has been suggested for the Karakoram glaciers of the western Himalaya. Changes in the winter synoptic patterns can influence the amount and seasonality of Himalayan snowfall and consequently influence the mass balance of regional glaciers. We use a clustering method to analyse the sea level pressure patterns which most influence Karakorum snow fall and determine if the frequency of these synoptic patterns changes in future scenarios. A regional climate model is used to assess changes in severity and frequency of snowfall events. A number of weather patterns influence winter precipitation over the western Himalaya, including westerly disturbances, and indicate an increase in frequency of occurrence up to 2100. Thus, the Karakorum glaciers may continue to grow, or decline at a slower rate, compared with those across the rest of the Himalayas.
authors.affiliation: UK Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, United Kingdom. Electronic address: jeff.ridley@metoffice.gov.uk.
authors.forename: Jeff
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ridley
authors.affiliation: UK Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wiltshire
authors.affiliation: UK Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Camilla
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mathison
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D046448:Ice Cover; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012621:Seasons; D062066:Water Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014881:Water Supply / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Karakorum glaciers; Regional climate models; Westerly disturbances