title: Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval.
  
  
  METHODS
  Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010.
  
  
  METHODS
  Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively.
  
  
  METHODS
  Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.
authors.affiliation: Social and Cardiovascular Epidemiology Research Group, School of Medicine, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain. mfranco@uah.es
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Franco
authors.forename: Usama
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Bilal
authors.forename: Pedro
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Orduñez
authors.forename: Mikhail
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Benet
authors.forename: Alain
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Morejón
authors.forename: Benjamín
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Caballero
authors.forename: Joan F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Kennelly
authors.forename: Richard S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Cooper
mesh_terms: D001835:Body Weight; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003462:Cuba / Q000453:epidemiology; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000401:mortality*; D002149:Energy Intake; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D009765:Obesity / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D015995:Prevalence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015430:Weight Gain; D015431:Weight Loss