title: Development and validation of a prediction rule for recurrent vascular events based on a cohort study of patients with arterial disease: the SMART risk score.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To enable risk stratification of patients with various types of arterial disease by the development and validation of models for prediction of recurrent vascular event risk based on vascular risk factors, imaging or both.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  University Medical Centre.
  
  
  METHODS
  5788 patients referred with various clinical manifestations of arterial disease between January 1996 and February 2010.
  
  
  METHODS
  788 recurrent vascular events (ie, myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) that were observed during 4.7 (IQR 2.3 to 7.7) years' follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Three Cox proportional hazards models for prediction of 10-year recurrent vascular event risk were developed based on age and sex in addition to clinical parameters (model A), carotid ultrasound findings (model B) or both (model C). Clinical parameters were medical history, current smoking, systolic blood pressure and laboratory biomarkers. In a separate part of the dataset, the concordance statistic of model A was 0.68 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.71), compared to 0.64 (0.61 to 0.68) for model B and 0.68 (0.65 to 0.72) for model C. Goodness-of-fit and calibration of model A were adequate, also in separate subgroups of patients having coronary, cerebrovascular, peripheral artery or aneurysmal disease. Model A predicted < 20% risk in 59% of patients, 20-30% risk in 19% and > 30% risk in 23%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Patients at high risk for recurrent vascular events can be identified based on readily available clinical characteristics.
authors.affiliation: Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 85500, Utrecht 3508 GA, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Johannes A N
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Dorresteijn
authors.forename: Frank L J
authors.initials: FL
authors.lastname: Visseren
authors.forename: Annemarie M J
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Wassink
authors.forename: Martijn J A
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Gondrie
authors.forename: Ewout W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Steyerberg
authors.forename: Paul M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Ridker
authors.forename: Nancy R
authors.initials: NR
authors.lastname: Cook
authors.forename: Yolanda
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: van der Graaf
mesh_terms: D003952:Diagnostic Imaging / Q000379:methods*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D058729:Peripheral Arterial Disease / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors