title: Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions.
abstract: In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. michalak@stanford.edu
authors.forename: Anna M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Michalak
authors.forename: Eric J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.forename: Dmitry
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Beletsky
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Boland
authors.forename: Nathan S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Bosch
authors.forename: Thomas B
authors.initials: TB
authors.lastname: Bridgeman
authors.forename: Justin D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Chaffin
authors.forename: Kyunghwa
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Cho
authors.forename: Rem
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Confesor
authors.forename: Irem
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Daloglu
authors.forename: Joseph V
authors.initials: JV
authors.lastname: Depinto
authors.forename: Mary Anne
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Evans
authors.forename: Gary L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Fahnenstiel
authors.forename: Lingli
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: He
authors.forename: Jeff C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Ho
authors.forename: Liza
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jenkins
authors.forename: Thomas H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Johengen
authors.forename: Kevin C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Kuo
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Laporte
authors.forename: Xiaojian
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Michael R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: McWilliams
authors.forename: Michael R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.forename: Derek J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Posselt
authors.forename: R Peter
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Richards
authors.forename: Donald
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Scavia
authors.forename: Allison L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Steiner
authors.forename: Ed
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Verhamme
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Wright
authors.forename: Melissa A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Zagorski
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods; D005068:Eutrophication / Q000502:physiology*; D006114:Great Lakes Region; D060106:Lakes / Q000032:analysis / Q000382:microbiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000032:analysis*; D011891:Rain; D013696:Temperature; D014872:Water Movements; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*; D014919:Wind
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D010758:Phosphorus