title: Predicting hotspots for influenza virus reassortment.
abstract: The 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics, each of which killed ≈1 million persons, arose through reassortment events. Influenza virus in humans and domestic animals could reassort and cause another pandemic. To identify geographic areas where agricultural production systems are conducive to reassortment, we fitted multivariate regression models to surveillance data on influenza A virus subtype H5N1 among poultry in China and Egypt and subtype H3N2 among humans. We then applied the models across Asia and Egypt to predict where subtype H3N2 from humans and subtype H5N1 from birds overlap; this overlap serves as a proxy for co-infection and in vivo reassortment. For Asia, we refined the prioritization by identifying areas that also have high swine density. Potential geographic foci of reassortment include the northern plains of India, coastal and central provinces of China, the western Korean Peninsula and southwestern Japan in Asia, and the Nile Delta in Egypt.
authors.affiliation: Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1496, USA. fullertl@ucla.edu
authors.forename: Trevon L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Fuller
authors.forename: Marius
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gilbert
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.forename: Julien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Cappelle
authors.forename: Parviez
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hosseini
authors.forename: Kevin Y
authors.initials: KY
authors.lastname: Njabo
authors.forename: Soad
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Abdel Aziz
authors.forename: Xiangming
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Daszak
authors.forename: Thomas B
authors.initials: TB
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D060085:Coinfection; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D004534:Egypt / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D053122:Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics*; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008957:Models, Genetic; D009976:Orthomyxoviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D058974:Phylogeography; D011200:Poultry / Q000821:virology; D016865:Reassortant Viruses / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics*; D013552:Swine / Q000821:virology
keywords: avian influenza; influenza; influenza A virus H3N2 subtype; influenza A virus H5N1 subtype; influenza in birds; reassortant viruses; viruses; zoonoses