title: A validated scoring system to identify long-term survivors after radiotherapy for metastatic spinal cord compression.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study aimed to develop and validate a scoring system to identify long-term survivors after conventional radiotherapy (RT) for metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC).
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from 1,125 patients who had received long-course RT for MSCC were included in this study. Of these patients, 344 survived for over 12 months and 781 died within a year following RT. Based on differences between the distributions of patient characteristics in the two groups, a scoring system was developed. Scores ranged from 0 to 18 points and 15 points was selected as the cutoff for identifying long-term survivors. Data from the 1,125 long-course RT patients (test group) were compared to data from 773 patients receiving short-course RT (validation group).
  
  
  RESULTS
  A score of ≥ 15 points was associated with a 94 % proportion of long-term survivors. The 15-point cutoff resulted in a specificity of 98 % and a positive predictive value of 94 % for identification of long-term surviving patients. The proportions of long-term survivors for each scoring point in the validation group were very similar to those in the test group.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This new scoring system enabled identification of long-term survivors after RT for MSCC with very high specificity and positive predictive value. The score proved to be valid and reproducible.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Lubeck, Ratzeburger Allee 160, Lubeck, Germany. Rades.Dirk@gmx.net
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rades
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Veninga
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bajrovic
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Karstens
authors.forename: S E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Schild
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany; D006801:Humans; D008134:Long-Term Care; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009460:Neurologic Examination; D010315:Particle Accelerators; D011880:Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted; D013117:Spinal Cord Compression / Q000401:mortality* / Q000532:radiotherapy*; D013125:Spinal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000532:radiotherapy* / Q000556:secondary*; D017741:Survivors