title: A conceptual framework for road safety and mobility applied to cycling safety.
abstract: Scientific literature lacks a model which combines exposure to risk, risk, and the relationship between them. This paper presents a conceptual road safety framework comprising mutually interacting factors for exposure to risk resulting from travel behaviour (volumes, modal split, and distribution of traffic over time and space) and for risk (crash and injury risk). The framework's three determinants for travel behaviour are locations of activities; resistances (generalized transport costs); needs, opportunities, and abilities. Crash and injury risks are modelled by the three 'safety pillars': infrastructure, road users and the vehicles they use. Creating a link in the framework between risk and exposure is important because of the 'non-linear relationship' between them, i.e. risk tends to decrease as exposure increases. Furthermore, 'perceived' risk (a type of travel resistance) plays a role in mode choice, i.e. the perception that a certain type of vehicle is unsafe can be a deterrent to its use. This paper uses theories to explain how the elements in the model interact. Cycling is an area where governments typically have goals for both mobility and safety. To exemplify application of the model, the paper uses the framework to link research on cycling (safety) to land use and infrastructure. The model's value lies in its ability to identify potential consequences of measures and policies for both exposure and risk. This is important from a scientific perspective and for policy makers who often have objectives for both mobility and safety.
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, The Netherlands; SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, The Netherlands. Electronic address: paul.schepers@rws.nl.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Schepers
authors.forename: Marjan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hagenzieker
authors.forename: Rob
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Methorst
authors.forename: Bert
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: van Wee
authors.forename: Fred
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Wegman
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001642:Bicycling / Q000293:injuries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012449:Safety / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Bicycle; Conceptual model; Cycling safety; Framework; Infrastructure; Land use; Models; Road safety