title: Compliance to oseltamivir among two populations in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom affected by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, November 2009--a waste water epidemiology study.
abstract: Antiviral provision remains the focus of many pandemic preparedness plans, however, there is considerable uncertainty regarding antiviral compliance rates. Here we employ a waste water epidemiology approach to estimate oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) compliance. Oseltamivir carboxylate (oseltamivir's active metabolite) was recovered from two waste water treatment plant (WWTP) catchments within the United Kingdom at the peak of the autumnal wave of the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Predictions of oseltamivir consumption from detected levels were compared with two sources of national government statistics to derive compliance rates. Scenario and sensitivity analysis indicated between 3-4 and 120-154 people were using oseltamivir during the study period in the two WWTP catchments and a compliance rate between 45-60%. With approximately half the collected antivirals going unused, there is a clear need to alter public health messages to improve compliance. We argue that a near real-time understanding of drug compliance at the scale of the waste water treatment plant (hundreds to millions of people) can potentially help public health messages become more timely, targeted, and demographically sensitive, while potentially leading to less mis- and un-used antiviral, less wastage and ultimately a more robust and efficacious pandemic preparedness plan.
authors.affiliation: NERC-Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom. acsi@ceh.ac.uk
authors.forename: Andrew C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Singer
authors.forename: Josef D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Järhult
authors.forename: Roman
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Grabic
authors.forename: Ghazanfar A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.forename: Ganna
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Fedorova
authors.forename: Jerker
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fick
authors.forename: Richard H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Lindberg
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Bowes
authors.forename: Björn
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Olsen
authors.forename: Hanna
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Söderström
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000032:analysis / Q000494:pharmacology / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000187:drug effects / Q000502:physiology*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology*; D053139:Oseltamivir / Q000032:analysis* / Q000494:pharmacology / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D058873:Pandemics; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D006113:United Kingdom; D062065:Wastewater / Q000737:chemistry*; D016903:Drug Monitoring
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D053139:Oseltamivir; D062065:Wastewater