title: Predictors for half-year outcome of impairment in daily life for back pain patients referred for physiotherapy: a prospective observational study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  From observational studies, there is only sparse information available on the predictors of development of impairment in daily life for patients receiving physiotherapy. Therefore, our aim was to identify factors which predict impairment in daily life for patients with back pain 6 months after receiving physiotherapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a prospective cohort study with 6-month follow-up. Patients were enrolled for treatment in private physiotherapy practices. Patients with a first physiotherapy referral because of thoracic or low back pain, aged 18 to 65 years were included. Primary outcome impairment was measured utilising the 16-item version of the Musculoskeletal Function Assessment Questionnaire. Therapy was documented on a standardized form. Baseline scores for impairment in daily life, symptom characteristics, sociodemographic and psychosocial factors, physical activity, nicotine consumption, intake of analgesics, comorbidity and delivered primary therapy approach were investigated as possible predictors. Univariate and multiple linear regression analyses were performed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 792 patients participated in the study (59% female, mean age 44.4 (SD 11.4), with 6-month follow-up results available from 391 patients. In univariate analysis 17 variables reached significance. In multiple linear regression identified predictors were: impairment in daily life before therapy, mental disorders, duration of the complaints, self-prognosis on work ability, rheumatoid arthritis, age, form of stress at work and physical activity. The variables explain 34% of variance (adjusted R(2), p<0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  With minimal information available from observational studies on the predictors of development of back problems for physiotherapy patients, this study adds new knowledge for forming appropriate referral guidelines. Impairment in daily life before therapy, mental disorder as comorbidity and the duration of the complaints can be named as outstanding factors. The results of this study can be used to facilitate comparison of patient therapy goals with the prognosis in everyday practice.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health Promotion and Clinical Movement Science, German Sport University Cologne, Cologne, Germany. sven.karstens@med.uni-heidelberg.de
authors.forename: Sven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Karstens
authors.forename: Katja
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hermann
authors.forename: Ingo
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Froböse
authors.forename: Stephan W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Weiler
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000328:Adult; D001416:Back Pain / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D026741:Physical Therapy Modalities; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012017:Referral and Consultation; D012044:Regression Analysis; D016896:Treatment Outcome