title: A rainfall- and temperature-driven abundance model for Aedes albopictus populations.
abstract: The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model's main control points were related to adult's mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies.
authors.affiliation: CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France. annelise.tran@cirad.fr
authors.forename: Annelise
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tran
authors.forename: Grégory
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: L'Ambert
authors.forename: Guillaume
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Lacour
authors.forename: Romain
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Benoît
authors.forename: Marie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Demarchi
authors.forename: Myriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cros
authors.forename: Priscilla
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Cailly
authors.forename: Mélaine
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Aubry-Kientz
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Balenghien
authors.forename: Pauline
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ezanno
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D005602:France; D007300:Insect Control / Q000379:methods*; D058865:Introduced Species; D007814:Larva / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D010063:Ovum / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011679:Pupa / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D011891:Rain; D012621:Seasons; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013696:Temperature