title: Are diabetes risk scores useful for the prediction of cardiovascular diseases? Assessment of seven diabetes risk scores in the KORA S4/F4 cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the utility of diabetes prediction models for CVD prediction as stated in two earlier studies.
  
  
  METHODS
  845 subjects from the population based German KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) S4/F4 cohort study (aged 55 to 74 years, without diabetes, former stroke, and former myocardial infarction at baseline) were followed for up to ten years for incident stroke and myocardial infarction. Seven diabetes risk scores developed from four different studies were applied to the KORA cohort to assess their predictive ability for CVD.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Areas under the receiver-operating curve (AROCs) for the prediction of CVD ranged from 0.60 to 0.65 when diabetes risk scores were applied to the KORA cohort. When diabetes risk scores were used to predict CVD and type 2 diabetes, respectively, AROCs for the prediction of CVD were 0.09 to 0.24 lower than AROCs for the prediction of type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, we used KORA data to develop prediction models for either diabetes or CVD, and found that they differed widely in selected predictor variables.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the older population, diabetes risk scores are not useful for the prediction of CVD, and prediction models for diabetes and CVD, respectively, require different parameters.
authors: Institute of Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany. bernd.kowall@ddz.uni-duesseldorf.de
authors: Bernd
authors: B
authors: Kowall
authors: Wolfgang
authors: W
authors: Rathmann
authors: Brenda
authors: B
authors: Bongaerts
authors: Barbara
authors: B
authors: Thorand
authors: Petra
authors: P
authors: Belcredi
authors: Margit
authors: M
authors: Heier
authors: Cornelia
authors: C
authors: Huth
authors: Ina-Maria
authors: IM
authors: Rückert
authors: Doris
authors: D
authors: Stöckl
authors: Annette
authors: A
authors: Peters
authors: Christa
authors: C
authors: Meisinger
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D003940:Diagnostic Techniques, Endocrine; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011236:Prediabetic State / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012107:Research Design; D012307:Risk Factors