title: Predicting national suicide numbers with social media data.
abstract: Suicide is not only an individual phenomenon, but it is also influenced by social and environmental factors. With the high suicide rate and the abundance of social media data in South Korea, we have studied the potential of this new medium for predicting completed suicide at the population level. We tested two social media variables (suicide-related and dysphoria-related weblog entries) along with classical social, economic and meteorological variables as predictors of suicide over 3 years (2008 through 2010). Both social media variables were powerfully associated with suicide frequency. The suicide variable displayed high variability and was reactive to celebrity suicide events, while the dysphoria variable showed longer secular trends, with lower variability. We interpret these as reflections of social affect and social mood, respectively. In the final multivariate model, the two social media variables, especially the dysphoria variable, displaced two classical economic predictors - consumer price index and unemployment rate. The prediction model developed with the 2-year training data set (2008 through 2009) was validated in the data for 2010 and was robust in a sensitivity analysis controlling for celebrity suicide effects. These results indicate that social media data may be of value in national suicide forecasting and prevention.
authors: Samsung Biomedical Research Institute, Seoul, Korea.
authors: Hong-Hee
authors: HH
authors: Won
authors: Woojae
authors: W
authors: Myung
authors: Gil-Young
authors: GY
authors: Song
authors: Won-Hee
authors: WH
authors: Lee
authors: Jong-Won
authors: JW
authors: Kim
authors: Bernard J
authors: BJ
authors: Carroll
authors: Doh Kwan
authors: DK
authors: Kim
mesh_terms: D005197:Famous Persons; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007100:Imitative Behavior; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D061108:Social Media / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013405:Suicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D000092864:Suicide Prevention
references: Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 1991 Dec;25(4):519-23
references: 1793421
references: Am J Epidemiol. 2001 Jul 15;154(2):120-7
references: 11447044
references: Am J Med Genet C Semin Med Genet. 2005 Feb 15;133C(1):8-12
references: 15645530
references: Acad Psychiatry. 2005 Nov-Dec;29(5):495-9
references: 16387977
references: Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2012 Jan;9(1):123-38
references: 22470283
references: Suicide Life Threat Behav. 2009 Aug;39(4):452-9
references: 19792986
references: Psychiatry Res. 1990 Jun;32(3):253-63
references: 2388966
references: Soc Sci Med. 2010 Apr;70(8):1254-61
references: 20163900
references: Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2011 Oct;46(10):975-82
references: 20652218
references: J Forensic Sci. 2012 May;57(3):783-5
references: 22268654
references: Soc Sci Med. 1992 Feb;34(3):333-4
references: 1557674
references: J Affect Disord. 2011 Mar;129(1-3):275-81
references: 20828830
references: PLoS One. 2011 May 04;6(5):e19467
references: 21573238
references: J Clin Psychol. 1993 Nov;49(6):918-21
references: 8300881
references: Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2012 Jul;47(7):1055-9
references: 21681453
references: J Clin Psychiatry. 2007 Jun;68(6):862-6
references: 17592909
references: Indian J Psychiatry. 2011 Jul;53(3):224-8
references: 22135440
references: Am Sociol Rev. 1974;39(3):340-54
references: 11630757
references: Int J Epidemiol. 1994 Dec;23(6):1185-9
references: 7721521
references: Psychiatry Res. 2011 Apr 30;186(2-3):390-6
references: 20828832
references: Psychiatry Res. 1998 Nov 16;81(2):219-31
references: 9858038
references: Suicide Life Threat Behav. 1991 Summer;21(2):174-87
references: 1887454
references: Nature. 2009 Feb 19;457(7232):1012-4
references: 19020500
references: J Affect Disord. 2012 Feb;136(3):412-8
references: 22153921
references: J Psychosom Res. 2009 Apr;66(4):297-303
references: 19302886
references: Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2001 Apr;932:200-21; discussion 221-4
references: 11411187
references: Artif Life. 2011 Summer;17(3):237-51
references: 21554117
references: J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2011 Mar;72(2):341-7
references: 21388607
references: Environ Health. 2009 Oct 01;8:46
references: 19796389
references: Drug Alcohol Rev. 2011 Sep;30(5):473-80
references: 21896069
references: Br J Psychiatry. 1976 Nov;129:472-5
references: 990662
references: J Psychiatr Res. 2011 Apr;45(4):488-94
references: 20863518