title: Utility of geriatric assessment to predict mortality in the oldest old: the Octabaix study 3-year follow-up.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Few studies have prospectively evaluated the utility of geriatric assessment tools as predictors of mortality in the oldest population. We investigated predictors of death in an oldest-old cohort after 3 years of follow-up.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Octabaix study is a prospective, community-based study with a follow-up period of 3 years involving 328 subjects aged 85 at baseline. Data were collected on functional and cognitive status, co-morbidity, nutritional and falls risk, quality of life, social risk, and long-term drug prescription. Vital status for the total cohort was evaluated after 3 years of follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mortality after 3 years was 17.3%. Patients who did not survive had significantly poorer baseline functional status for basic and instrumental activities of daily living (Barthel and Lawton Index), higher co-morbidity (Charlson), higher nutritional risk (Mini Nutritional Assessment), higher risk of falls (Tinetti Gait Scale), poor quality of life (visual analog scale of the Quality of Life Test), and higher number of chronic drugs prescribed. Cox regression analysis identified the Lawton Index (hazard ratio [HR] 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.89) and the number of chronic drugs prescribed (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18) as independent predictors of mortality at 3 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Among the variables studied, the ability to perform instrumental activities of daily living and using few drugs on a chronic basis at baseline are the best predictors of which oldest-old community-dwelling subjects survive after a 3-year follow-up period.
authors: Geriatric Unit, Internal Medicine Service, Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. fformiga@bellvitgehospital.cat
authors: Francesc
authors: F
authors: Formiga
authors: Assumpta
authors: A
authors: Ferrer
authors: David
authors: D
authors: Chivite
authors: Abelardo
authors: A
authors: Montero
authors: Hector
authors: H
authors: Sanz
authors: Ramón
authors: R
authors: Pujol
mesh_terms: D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D016019:Survival Analysis