title: Alarming predictions for obesity and non-communicable diseases in the Middle East.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The present study aimed to model obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East; in addition, to explore how hypothetical reductions in population obesity levels could ameliorate anticipated disease burdens.
  
  
  METHODS
  A regression analysis of cross-sectional data v. BMI showed age- and sex-specific BMI trends, which fed into a micro simulation with a million Monte Carlo trials for each country. We also examined two alternative scenarios where population BMI was reduced by 1 % and 5 %.
  
  
  METHODS
  Statistical modelling of obesity trends was carried out in nine Middle East countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey).
  
  
  METHODS
  BMI data along with disease incidence, mortality and survival data from national and sub-national data sets were used for the modelling process.
  
  
  RESULTS
  High rates of overweight and obesity increased in both men and women in most countries. The burden of incident type 2 diabetes, CHD and stroke would be moderated with even small reductions in obesity levels.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Obesity is a growing problem in the Middle East which requires government action on the primary prevention of obesity. The present results are important for policy makers to know the effectiveness of obesity interventions on future disease burden.
authors: 1 National Heart Forum, 7th Floor Victoria House, London WC1B 4AD, UK.
authors: Fanny
authors: F
authors: Kilpi
authors: 1 National Heart Forum, 7th Floor Victoria House, London WC1B 4AD, UK.
authors: Laura
authors: L
authors: Webber
authors: 2 Nutrition and Health Studies Unit, Deanship of Scientific Research, University of Bahrain, Manama, Bahrain.
authors: Abdulrahman
authors: A
authors: Musaigner
authors: 3 Epidemiology & Public Health, Division of Population Health, University College London, London, UK.
authors: Amina
authors: A
authors: Aitsi-Selmi
authors: 1 National Heart Forum, 7th Floor Victoria House, London WC1B 4AD, UK.
authors: Tim
authors: T
authors: Marsh
authors: 1 National Heart Forum, 7th Floor Victoria House, London WC1B 4AD, UK.
authors: Ketevan
authors: K
authors: Rtveladze
authors: 4 New College, Oxford, UK.
authors: Klim
authors: K
authors: McPherson
authors: 1 National Heart Forum, 7th Floor Victoria House, London WC1B 4AD, UK.
authors: Martin
authors: M
authors: Brown
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015992:Body Mass Index; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008877:Middle East / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D050177:Overweight; D012044:Regression Analysis; D055815:Young Adult
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