title: Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans population dynamics by interval lagged weather data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Culex pipiens/restuans mosquitoes are important vectors for a variety of arthropod borne viral infections. In this study, the associations between 20 years of mosquito capture data and the time lagged environmental quantities daytime length, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed were used to generate a predictive model for the population dynamics of this vector species.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mosquito population in the study area was represented by averaged time series of mosquitos counts captured at 6 sites in Cook County (Illinois, USA). Cross-correlation maps (CCMs) were compiled to investigate the association between mosquito abundances and environmental quantities. The results obtained from the CCMs were incorporated into a Poisson regression to generate a predictive model. To optimize the predictive model the time lags obtained from the CCMs were adjusted using a genetic algorithm.
  
  
  RESULTS
  CCMs for weekly data showed a highly positive correlation of mosquito abundances with daytime length 4 to 5 weeks prior to capture (quantified by a Spearman rank order correlation of rS = 0.898) and with temperature during 2 weeks prior to capture (rS = 0.870). Maximal negative correlations were found for wind speed averaged over 3 week prior to capture (rS = -0.621). Cx. pipiens/restuans population dynamics was predicted by integrating the CCM results in Poisson regression models. They were used to simulate the average seasonal cycle of the mosquito abundance. Verification with observations resulted in a correlation of rS = 0.899 for daily and rS = 0.917 for weekly data. Applying the optimized models to the entire 20-years time series also resulted in a suitable fit with rS = 0.876 for daily and rS = 0.899 for weekly data.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The study demonstrates the application of interval lagged weather data to predict mosquito abundances with a feasible accuracy, especially when related to weekly Cx. pipiens/restuans populations.
authors: Karin
authors: K
authors: Lebl
authors: Katharina
authors: K
authors: Brugger
authors: Franz
authors: F
authors: Rubel
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003465:Culex / Q000502:physiology*; D004777:Environment; D005260:Female; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons; D014887:Weather
references: J Med Entomol. 2011 Mar;48(2):468-75
references: 21485391
references: J Med Entomol. 2011 May;48(3):669-79
references: 21661329
references: J Med Entomol. 1990 Sep;27(5):892-8
references: 2231624
references: J Med Entomol. 2008 Jan;45(1):1-8
references: 18283935
references: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1968 Jan;17(1):133-40
references: 5688903
references: Adv Virus Res. 2003;60:187-232
references: 14689695
references: J Med Entomol. 1992 Jul;29(4):582-98
references: 1495066
references: J Vector Ecol. 2004 Jun;29(1):1-10
references: 15266736
references: Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2005 Fall;5(3):267-75
references: 16187896
references: J Vector Ecol. 2000 Dec;25(2):136-45
references: 11217212
references: J Med Entomol. 2003 Sep;40(5):607-14
references: 14596273
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1989 Dec;5(4):537-40
references: 2614404
references: J Med Entomol. 1985 Sep 20;22(5):524-8
references: 4045946
references: J Med Entomol. 2012 Mar;49(2):270-6
references: 22493843
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 2006 Mar;22(1):10-4
references: 16646315
references: J Med Entomol. 2006 Mar;43(2):393-402
references: 16619626
references: Ann Entomol Soc Am. 1970 Jul;63(4):995-9
references: 5449406
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1988 Sep;4(3):339-44
references: 3199124
references: Infect Genet Evol. 2011 Oct;11(7):1577-85
references: 21875691
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1990 Mar;6(1):55-63
references: 1969927
references: J Vector Ecol. 2011 Dec;36(2):269-78
references: 22129398
references: Ann Entomol Soc Am. 2012 Mar;105(2):135-149
references: 26543242
references: J Med Entomol. 1983 May 26;20(3):275-87
references: 6876091
references: Bull Entomol Res. 2011 Dec;101(6):633-41
references: 21208506
references: PLoS One. 2013;8(4):e60330
references: 23560090
references: J Med Entomol. 2012 Jul;49(4):851-8
references: 22897045
references: Clin Microbiol Rev. 1994 Jan;7(1):89-116
references: 8118792
references: J Med Entomol. 1995 Sep;32(5):636-45
references: 7473618