title: Systems scale assessment of the sustainability implications of emerging green initiatives.
abstract: This paper demonstrates a systems framework for assessment of environmental impacts from 'green initiatives', through a case study of meso-scale, anthropogenic-biogenic interactions. The following cross-sectoral green initiatives, combining the emerging trends in the North East region of the United Kingdom, have been considered - increasing the vegetation cover; decarbonising road transport; decentralising energy production through biomass plants. Two future scenarios are assessed - Baseline_2020 (projected emissions from realisation of policy instruments); Aggressive_2020 (additional emissions from realisation of green initiatives). Resulting trends from the Aggressive_2020 scenario suggest an increase in emissions of pollutant precursors, including biogenic volatile organic compounds and nitrogen dioxide over the base case by up to 20% and 5% respectively. This has implications for enhanced daytime ozone and secondary aerosols formation by up to 15% and over 5% respectively. Associated land cover changes show marginal decrease of ambient temperature but modest reductions in ammonia and ambient particulates.
authors: School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Cassie Building, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK. Electronic address: abhishek.tiwary@ncl.ac.uk.
authors: Abhishek
authors: A
authors: Tiwary
authors: Anil
authors: A
authors: Namdeo
authors: Jose
authors: J
authors: Fuentes
authors: Anthony
authors: A
authors: Dore
authors: Xiao-Ming
authors: XM
authors: Hu
authors: Margaret
authors: M
authors: Bell
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018533:Biomass; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D009585:Nitrogen Dioxide / Q000032:analysis; D010126:Ozone / Q000032:analysis; D010944:Plants; D006113:United Kingdom; D055549:Volatile Organic Compounds / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D055549:Volatile Organic Compounds; D010126:Ozone; D009585:Nitrogen Dioxide
keywords: Air quality; Bio energy; Electric vehicles; Green infrastructure; Secondary aerosols; Systems framework; meso-scale