title: Deaths associated with influenza pandemic of 1918-19, Japan.
abstract: Current estimates of deaths from the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in Japan are based on vital records and range from 257,000 to 481,000. The resulting crude death rate range of 0.47%-0.88% is considerably lower than parallel and conservative worldwide estimates of 1.66%-2.77%. Because the accuracy of vital registration records for early 20th century Asia is questionable, to calculate the percentage of the population who died from the pandemic, we used alternative prefecture-level population count data for Japan in combination with estimation methods for panel data that were not available to earlier demographers. Our population loss estimates of 1.97-2.02 million are appreciably higher than the standing estimates, and they yield a crude rate of population loss of 3.62%-3.71%. This rate resolves a major puzzle about the pandemic by indicating that the experience of Japan was similar to that of other parts of Asia.
authors: Asian Studies Center, James Madison College, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824, USA. chandr45@msu.edu
authors: Siddharth
authors: S
authors: Chandra
mesh_terms: D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000821:virology; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009975:Orthomyxoviridae / Q000472:pathogenicity; D058873:Pandemics; D012107:Research Design / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015996:Survival Rate
keywords: 1918; 1918–19; Japan; deaths; influenza viruses; pandemic; viruses
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