title: Stage-dependent model for Hantavirus infection: the effect of the initial infection-free period.
abstract: We propose a stage-dependent model with constant delay to study the effect of the initial infection-free period on the spread of Hantavirus infection in rodents. We analyze the model under various extreme weather conditions, in the context of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and show how these variations determine the evolution of the system significantly. When the scenario corresponds to El Niño, the system presents a demographic explosion and a delayed outbreak of Hantavirus infection, whereas if the scenario is the opposite there is a rapid decline of the population, but with a possible persistence period that may imply a considerable risk for public health, a fact that is in agreement with available field data. We use the model to simulate a historical evolution that resembles the processes that occurred in the 1990s.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Física Fundamental, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Paseo Senda del Rey 9, E-28040 Madrid, Spain. jmaparicio@bec.uned.es
authors.forename: José A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Reinoso
authors.forename: F Javier
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: de la Rubia
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000818:Animals; D018778:Hantavirus Infections / Q000635:transmission*; D051379:Mice; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013997:Time Factors