title: The use and role of predictive systems in disease management.
abstract: Disease predictive systems are intended to be management aids. With a few exceptions, these systems typically do not have direct sustained use by growers. Rather, their impact is mostly pedagogic and indirect, improving recommendations from farm advisers and shaping management concepts. The degree to which a system is consulted depends on the amount of perceived new, actionable information that is consistent with the objectives of the user. Often this involves avoiding risks associated with costly disease outbreaks. Adoption is sensitive to the correspondence between the information a system delivers and the information needed to manage a particular pathosystem at an acceptable financial risk; details of the approach used to predict disease risk are less important. The continuing challenge for researchers is to construct tools relevant to farmers and their advisers that improve upon their current management skill. This goal requires an appreciation of growers' decision calculus in managing disease problems and, more broadly, their overall farm enterprise management.
authors.affiliation: U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Forage Seed and Cereal Research Unit, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA. dave.gent@ars.usda.gov
authors.forename: David H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Gent
authors.forename: Walter F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Mahaffee
authors.forename: Neil
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: McRoberts
authors.forename: William F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Pfender
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000639:trends; D000465:Algorithms; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000382:microbiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010935:Plant Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012306:Risk