title: A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.
abstract: A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries.
authors.affiliation: Physics-Durban Academic Group, School of Chemistry and Physics, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville Campus, Durban 4001, South Africa. Electronic address: matthewsa@ukzn.ac.za.
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Matthews
authors.forename: M L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Garenne
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D036262:Empirical Research; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: Marital states; Marriage market; Simulation; Two-sex age distribution; Zambia