title: Statistical modelling and forecasting of cervix cancer cases in radiation oncology treatment: a hospital based study from Western Nepal.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To estimate the numbers and trends in cervix cancer cases visiting the Radiotherapy Department at Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal, statistical modelling from retrospective data was applied.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective study was carried out on data for a total of 159 patients treated for cervix cancer at Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal, between 28th September 2000 and 31st December 2008. Theoretical statistics were used for statistical modelling and forecasting.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Using curve fitting method, Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power and Exponential growth models were validated. Including the constant term, none of the models fit the data well. Excluding the constant term, the cubic model demonstrated the best fit, with R2=0.871 (p=0.004). In 2008, the observed and estimated numbers of cases were same (12). According to our model, 273 patients with cervical cancer are expected to visit the hospital in 2015.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our data predict a significant increase in cervical cancer cases in this region in the near future. This observation suggests the need for more focus and resource allocation on cervical cancer screening and treatment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Nepal.
authors.forename: Brijesh
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sathian
authors.forename: Abul
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fazil
authors.forename: Jayadevan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sreedharan
authors.forename: Sadip
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Pant
authors.forename: Anjali
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kakria
authors.forename: Krishna
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sharan
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rajesh
authors.forename: K V
authors.initials: KV
authors.lastname: Vishrutha
authors.forename: Soumya B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Shetty
authors.forename: Shameema
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Shahnavaz
authors.forename: Jyothi H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Rao
authors.forename: Vijaya
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Marakala
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006761:Hospitals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009390:Nepal / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D018787:Radiation Oncology / Q000592:standards / Q000639:trends*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000532:radiotherapy