title: A short note on probability in clinical medicine.
abstract: Probability claims are ubiquitous in clinical medicine, yet exactly how clinical events relate to interpretations of probability has been not been well explored. This brief essay examines the major interpretations of probability and how these interpretations may account for the probabilistic nature of clinical events. It is argued that there are significant problems with the unquestioned application of interpretation of probability to clinical events. The essay concludes by suggesting other avenues to understand uncertainty in clinical medicine.
authors.affiliation: Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. ross.upshur@gmail.com
authors.forename: Ross E G
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Upshur
mesh_terms: D002170:Canada; D015510:Clinical Medicine; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability; D035501:Uncertainty