title: La Gloria, Mexico: the possible origins and response of a worldwide H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009.
abstract: This article traces the spread and route of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 from its possible origin in La Gloria to Mexico City. A lack of health control measures or nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in La Gloria accounts for the unprecedented high basic reproductive number (R0) in that town and a higher incidence of H1N1 flu in Mexico City. We analyzed data collected from Mexican news articles, the Healthmaps dataset, the Google search engine, and telephone interviews with Mexican community physicians and residents. Our article uses a simple Susceptible Infected and Recovered model based on the data collected, to show the relationship between the disease curve and the implementation of NPI use. As a result of this study, we conclude that, with strict government measures to control the disease over an extended period of time, it is possible that many hundreds or even thousands of lives might be saved in the future.
authors.affiliation: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Sahar
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hashmi
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000458:organization & administration*; D015438:Health Behavior; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008019:Life Style; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D058873:Pandemics; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D019371:Topography, Medical