title: Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition.
abstract: Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land-atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission-deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28-67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45-85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89-179) Tg by 2100.
authors.affiliation: NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK. ms@ceh.ac.uk
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Sutton
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Reis
authors.forename: Stuart N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Riddick
authors.forename: Ulrike
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Dragosits
authors.forename: Eiko
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Nemitz
authors.forename: Mark R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Theobald
authors.forename: Y Sim
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Christine F
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Braban
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vieno
authors.forename: Anthony J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Dore
authors.forename: Robert F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Mitchell
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wanless
authors.forename: Francis
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Daunt
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fowler
authors.forename: Trevor D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Blackall
authors.forename: Celia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Milford
authors.forename: Chris R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Flechard
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Loubet
authors.forename: Raia
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Massad
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Cellier
authors.forename: Erwan
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Personne
authors.forename: Pierre F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Coheur
authors.forename: Lieven
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Clarisse
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Van Damme
authors.forename: Yasmine
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ngadi
authors.forename: Cathy
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Clerbaux
authors.forename: Carsten Ambelas
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Skjøth
authors.forename: Camilla
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Geels
authors.forename: Ole
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Hertel
authors.forename: Roy J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Wichink Kruit
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Pinder
authors.forename: Jesse O
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Bash
authors.forename: John T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.forename: László
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Horváth
authors.forename: Tom H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Misselbrook
authors.forename: Albert
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bleeker
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Dentener
authors.forename: Wim
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: de Vries
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis*; D000641:Ammonia / Q000032:analysis / Q000737:chemistry*; D000818:Animals; D001272:Atmosphere / Q000032:analysis*; D001717:Birds; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D058458:Nitrogen Cycle; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D000641:Ammonia
keywords: ammonia; atmospheric modelling; deposition; emission