title: Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003-2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country's own data.
  
  
  METHODS
  Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003-2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model).
  
  
  RESULTS
  According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25-34 years age group.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.
authors.affiliation: Syrian Center for Tobacco Studies, Aleppo, Syria. radgali@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Radwan
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Al Ali
authors.forename: Fawaz
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Mzayek
authors.forename: Samer
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rastam
authors.forename: Fouad
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: M Fouad
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: O'Flaherty
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Capewell
authors.forename: Wasim
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Maziak
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D005006:Ethnicity; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006293:Health Promotion; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D011314:Preventive Health Services; D012307:Risk Factors; D013593:Syria / Q000453:epidemiology