title: [Prediction of psychosis by stepwise multilevel assessment--the Basel FePsy (Early Recognition of Psychosis)-Project].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  We have conducted various studies in Basel with the aim of improving the methods for the early detection of psychosis (Früherkennung von Psychosen, FePsy).
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1.3.2000 to 29.2.2004 234 individuals were screened using the Basel Screening Instrument for Psychosis (BSIP). 106 patients were identified as at risk for psychosis; out of these 53 remained in follow-up for up to 7 years (mean 5.4 years). The assessments were done with a specifically developed instrument for history taking, various scales for the psychopathology, assessments of neuropsychology and fine motor functioning, clinical and quantitative EEG, MRI of the brain, laboratory etc.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Based on the BSIP alone, a relatively reliable prediction was possible: 21 (39.6%) of the individuals identified as at risk developed psychosis within the follow-up time. Post-hoc prediction could be improved to 81% by weighting psychopathology and including neuropsychology. Including the other domains obviously allows further improvements of prediction.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The risk for psychosis should be assessed in a stepwise procedure. In a first step, a clinically oriented screening should be conducted. If an at-risk status is found, further assessments in various domains should be done in a specialised centre.
authors.affiliation: Zentrum für Gender Research und Früherkennung, Universität Basel, Universitäre Psychiatrische Kliniken, Schweiz. anita.riecher@upkbs.ch
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Riecher-Rössler
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Aston
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Borgwardt
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bugra
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Fuhr
authors.forename: U
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Gschwandtner
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Koutsouleris
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pflueger
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Tamagni
authors.forename: E-W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Radü
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rapp
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Smieskova
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Studerus
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Walter
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Zimmermann
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D018450:Disease Progression; D042241:Early Diagnosis; D004569:Electroencephalography; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D011597:Psychomotor Performance; D011618:Psychotic Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology* / Q000628:therapy; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors