title: Temperature, relative humidity and sunshine may be the effective predictors for occurrence of malaria in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2012.
abstract: Malaria has been endemic in Guangzhou for more than 50 years. The goal of this study was to use a negative binomial regression to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and malaria reported. Our results revealed that each 1°C rise of temperature corresponds to an increase of 0.90% in the monthly number of malaria cases. Likewise, a one percent rise in relative humidity led to an increase of 3.99% and a one hour rise in sunshine led to an increase of 0.68% in the monthly number of cases. Our findings may be useful for developing a simple, precise malaria early warning system.
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
authors.forename: Tiegang
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Zhicong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013472:Sunlight; D013696:Temperature; D055815:Young Adult