title: Malignancy risk models for oral lesions.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this work was to assess risk habits, clinical and cellular phenotypes and TP53 DNA changes in oral mucosa samples from patients with Oral Potentially Malignant Disorders (OPMD), in order to create models that enable genotypic and phenotypic patterns to be obtained that determine the risk of lesions becoming malignant.
  
  
  METHODS
  Clinical phenotypes, family history of cancer and risk habits were collected in clinical histories. TP53 gene mutation and morphometric-morphological features were studied, and multivariate models were applied. Three groups were estabished: a) oral cancer (OC) group (n=10), b) oral potentially malignant disorders group (n=10), and c) control group (n=8).
  
  
  RESULTS
  An average of 50% of patients with malignancy were found to have smoking and drinking habits. A high percentage of TP53 mutations were observed in OC (30%) and OPMD (average 20%) lesions (p=0.000). The majority of these mutations were GC TA transversion mutations (60%). However, patients with OC presented mutations in all the exons and introns studied. Highest diagnostic accuracy (p=0.0001) was observed when incorporating alcohol and tobacco habits variables with TP3 mutations.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results prove to be statistically reliable, with parameter estimates that are nearly unbiased even for small sample sizes. Models 2 and 3 were the most accurate for assessing the risk of an OPMD becoming cancerous. However, in a public health context, model 3 is the most recommended because the characteristics considered are easier and less costly to evaluate.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Biología Bucal, Facultad de Odontología, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba- Argentina, Haya de la Torre s/n, Pabellón Argentina, CP 5000 Córdoba-Argentina, brunottomabel@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Ana-María
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Zarate
authors.forename: María-Magdalena
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Brezzo
authors.forename: Dante-Gustavo
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Secchi
authors.forename: José-Luis
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Barra
authors.forename: Mabel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Brunotto
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D016158:Genes, p53 / Q000235:genetics; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009059:Mouth Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics*; D009062:Mouth Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics*; D009154:Mutation; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055815:Young Adult