title: Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth.
abstract: The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA. bfagan@umd.edu
authors.forename: William F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Fagan
authors.forename: Yanthe E
authors.initials: YE
authors.lastname: Pearson
authors.forename: Elise A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Larsen
authors.forename: Heather J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Lynch
authors.forename: Jessica B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Turner
authors.forename: Hilary
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Staver
authors.forename: Andrew E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Noble
authors.forename: Sharon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bewick
authors.forename: Emma E
authors.initials: EE
authors.lastname: Goldberg
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005075:Biological Evolution; D046028:Canidae / Q000235:genetics*; D002335:Carnivora / Q000235:genetics*; D008018:Life Cycle Stages; D008322:Mammals / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics; D008954:Models, Biological; D010802:Phylogeny; D011158:Population Growth; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015996:Survival Rate
keywords: Caniformia; intrinsic rate of natural increase; macroevolutionary model; mammal life history; population doubling time; species conservation