title: Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, southern Vietnam.
abstract: An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1-3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50-100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.
authors.affiliation: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Hoang Quoc
authors.initials: HQ
authors.lastname: Cuong
authors.forename: Nguyen Thanh
authors.initials: NT
authors.lastname: Vu
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.forename: Maciej F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Boni
authors.forename: Khoa T D
authors.initials: KT
authors.lastname: Thai
authors.forename: Maia A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Rabaa
authors.forename: Luong Chan
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Quang
authors.forename: Cameron P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Simmons
authors.forename: Tran Ngoc
authors.initials: TN
authors.lastname: Huu
authors.forename: Katherine L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Anders
mesh_terms: D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003716:Dengue Virus; D058872:Epidemics; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D010507:Periodicity; D062486:Public Health Surveillance; D012621:Seasons; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D014744:Vietnam / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Dengue; Vietnam; arthropod vectors; epidemiology; heterogeneity; spatial distribution; surveillance; transmission; vector-borne infections; viruses