title: Efficacy of new generation antidepressants: differences seem illusory.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Recently, Cipriani and colleagues examined the relative efficacy of 12 new-generation antidepressants on major depression using network meta-analytic methods. They found that some of these medications outperformed others in patient response to treatment. However, several methodological criticisms have been raised about network meta-analysis and Cipriani's analysis in particular which creates the concern that the stated superiority of some antidepressants relative to others may be unwarranted.
  
  
  METHODS
  A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted which involved replicating Cipriani's network meta-analysis under the null hypothesis (i.e., no true differences between antidepressants). The following simulation strategy was implemented: (1) 1000 simulations were generated under the null hypothesis (i.e., under the assumption that there were no differences among the 12 antidepressants), (2) each of the 1000 simulations were network meta-analyzed, and (3) the total number of false positive results from the network meta-analyses were calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Greater than 7 times out of 10, the network meta-analysis resulted in one or more comparisons that indicated the superiority of at least one antidepressant when no such true differences among them existed.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on our simulation study, the results indicated that under identical conditions to those of the 117 RCTs with 236 treatment arms contained in Cipriani et al.'s meta-analysis, one or more false claims about the relative efficacy of antidepressants will be made over 70% of the time. As others have shown as well, there is little evidence in these trials that any antidepressant is more effective than another. The tendency of network meta-analyses to generate false positive results should be considered when conducting multiple comparison analyses.
authors.affiliation: VA Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, California, United States of America. acdelre@gmail.com
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Del Re
authors.forename: Glen I
authors.initials: GI
authors.lastname: Spielmans
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Flückiger
authors.forename: Bruce E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Wampold
mesh_terms: D018687:Antidepressive Agents, Second-Generation / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006801:Humans; D007088:Illusions; D011336:Probability; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D018687:Antidepressive Agents, Second-Generation