title: Incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women in England: two methods of estimation.
abstract: Information on the incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is essential for models of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. We developed two independent estimates of CT incidence in women in England: one based on an incidence study, with estimates 'recalibrated' to the general population using data on setting-specific relative risks, and allowing for clearance and re-infection during follow-up; the second based on UK prevalence data, and information on the duration of CT infection. The consistency of independent sources of data on incidence, prevalence and duration, validates estimates of these parameters. Pooled estimates of the annual incidence rate in women aged 16-24 and 16-44 years for 2001-2005 using all these data were 0·05 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·035-0·071] and 0·021 (95% CrI 0·015-0·028), respectively. Although, the estimates apply to England, similar methods could be used in other countries. The methods could be extended to dynamic models to synthesize, and assess the consistency of data on contact and transmission rates.
authors.affiliation: School of Health and Population Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Price
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
authors.forename: A E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Ades
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Agency, Colindale, London, UK.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: de Angelis
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
authors.forename: N J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Welton
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Macleod
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Turner
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Horner
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002690:Chlamydia Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002692:Chlamydia trachomatis; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008403:Mass Screening; D015995:Prevalence