title: Pseudocontingencies derived from categorically organized memory representations.
abstract: Pseudocontingencies (PCs) allow for inferences about the contingency between two variables X and Y when the conditions for genuine contingency assessment are not met. Even when joint observations X i and Y i about the same reference objects i are not available or are detached in time or space, the correlation r(X i ,Y i ) is readily inferred from base rates. Inferred correlations are positive (negative) if X and Y base rates are skewed in the same (different) directions. Such PC inferences afford useful proxies for actually existing contingencies. While previous studies have focused on PCs due to environmental base rates, the present research highlights memory organization as a natural source of PC effects. When information about two attributes X and Y is represented in a hierarchically organized categorical memory code, as category-wise base rates p(X) and p(Y), the reconstruction of item-level information from category base rates will naturally produce PC effects. Three experiments support this contention. When the yes base rates of two respondents in four questionnaire subscales (categories) were correlated, recalled and predicted item-level responses were correlated in the same direction, even when the original responses to specific items within categories were correlated in the opposite direction.
authors.affiliation: University of Mannheim, Parkring 47, 68159, Mannheim, Germany, tovogel@mail.uni-mannheim.de.
authors.forename: Tobias
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Vogel
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Freytag
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Kutzner
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Fiedler
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003210:Concept Formation / Q000502:physiology; D003463:Cues; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008568:Memory / Q000502:physiology*; D011939:Mental Recall / Q000502:physiology; D011336:Probability; D011897:Random Allocation; D013850:Thinking / Q000502:physiology*; D055815:Young Adult