title: Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.
abstract: The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, such as antiviral deployment, were largely ineffective due to both feasibility constraints and the generally mild nature of disease, resulting in incomplete case ascertainment. Reviews of national pandemic plans have identified pandemic impact, primarily linked to measures of transmissibility and severity, as a key concept to incorporate into the next generation of plans. While an assessment of impact provides the rationale under which interventions may be warranted, it does not directly provide an assessment on whether particular interventions may be effective. Such considerations motivate our introduction of the concept of pandemic controllability. For case-targeted interventions, such as antiviral treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis, we identify the visibility and transmissibility of a pandemic as the key drivers of controllability. Taking a case-study approach, we suggest that high-impact pandemics, for which control is most desirable, are likely uncontrollable with case-targeted interventions. Strategies that do not rely on the identification of cases may prove relatively more effective. By introducing a pragmatic framework for relating the assessment of impact to the ability to mitigate an epidemic (controllability), we hope to address a present omission identified in pandemic response plans.
authors.affiliation: Melbourne School of Population Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: McCaw
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Glass
authors.forename: G N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Mercer
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: McVernon
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006285:Health Planning; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D019982:Organizational Case Studies; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D056990:Post-Exposure Prophylaxis
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents
keywords: communicable diseases; management and policy; pandemic influenza; research