title: Capture-mark-recapture to estimate the number of missed articles for systematic reviews in surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Systematic reviews are an important knowledge synthesis tool, but with new literature available each day, reviewers must balance identifying all relevant literature against timely synthesis.
  
  
  METHODS
  This study tested capture-mark-recapture (CMR), an ecology-based technique, to estimate the total number of articles in the literature identified in a systematic review of adult trauma care quality indicators.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The systematic review included 40 articles identified from online searches and citation references. The CMR model suggested that 3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0 to 6) articles were missed and the database search provided 93% (one-sided 95% CI: ≥83%) of known articles for inclusion in the systematic review. The search order used for identifying the articles was optimal among the 24 that could have been used.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The CMR technique can be used in systematic reviews in surgery to estimate the closeness to capturing the total body of literature for a specific topic.
authors.affiliation: Department of Critical Care Medicine, Medicine and Community Health Sciences, Institute for Public Health, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. tstelfox@ucalgary.ca
authors.forename: Henry T
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: Stelfox
authors.forename: Gary
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Foster
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Niven
authors.forename: Andrew W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Kirkpatrick
authors.forename: Charlie H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Goldsmith
mesh_terms: D016206:Databases, Bibliographic; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D013502:General Surgery; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D019984:Quality Indicators, Health Care; D012107:Research Design; D012196:Review Literature as Topic; D014194:Traumatology
keywords: Quality of care; Regression analysis; Statistical modeling; Surgery; Systematic review; Wounds and injuries