title: [Predictive model for post-treatment tooth loss of patients with aggressive periodontitis].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To establish a predictive model for long-term tooth loss of patients with aggressive periodontitis (AgP) after periodontal treatment.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients diagnosed as AgP in Department of Periodontology, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology, who were re-evaluated 3 to 11 years after periodontal treatment were enrolled (n=85). Logistic regression was performed to select background, periodontal and radiographic factors which were related to long-term post-treatment tooth loss. A predictive model was built and analyzed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After periodontal treatment, 55 teeth from 22 patients lost further. High prevalence of baseline bone loss, root abnormality, and residual severe bleeding sites, as well as poor compliance to maintenance were detected as risk factors in the predictive model. ROC analysis found the sensitivity and specificity of the model could reach up to 80% simultaneously.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Predictive model for post-treatment tooth loss of patients with AgP is an important adjunct in clinical practice.
authors.affiliation: Department of Stomatology, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
authors.forename: Da
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lv
authors.forename: Huan-xin
authors.initials: HX
authors.lastname: Meng
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Zhi-bin
authors.initials: ZB
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Xiang-hui
authors.initials: XH
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.forename: Dong
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.forename: Rui-fang
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.forename: Xian-e
authors.initials: XE
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D010520:Aggressive Periodontitis / Q000150:complications*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D016388:Tooth Loss / Q000209:etiology*