title: Prognosis of chronic low back pain in patients presenting to a private community-based group exercise program.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine the prognosis and prognostic factors for patients with chronic low back pain presenting to a private, community-based, group exercise program.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 118 consecutive patients with chronic LBP were recruited. Baseline assessments included socio-demographic characteristics, back pain history and clinical examination findings. Primary outcome measures were pain intensity and disability at 3, 6 and 12 months. Potential prognostic factors to predict pain intensity and disability at 12 months were assessed using a multivariate regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  112 (95 %) participants were followed up at 12 months. The majority of participants were female (73 %), had high educational levels (82 %) and resided in suburbs with a high socio-economic status (99 %). Pain intensity improved markedly during the first 6 months (35 %) with further minimal reductions up to 12 months (39 %). Interestingly, disability improved to a greater degree than pain (48 % improvement at 6 months) and continued to improve throughout the 12 months (60 %). Baseline pain intensity accounted for 10 % of the variance in the 1 year pain outcomes. Duration of current episode, baseline disability and educational level accounted for 15 % of the variation in disability at 12 months.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  During a period of 12 months, patients with chronic LBP presenting to a private, community-based, group exercise program improved markedly, with greater improvements in disability than pain. The predictors investigated accounted for only 10 and 15 % of pain and disability outcomes, respectively.
authors.affiliation: Musculoskeletal Division, The George Institute for Global Health, University of Sydney, Level 13, 321 Kent Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000, Australia, dsteffens@georgeinstitute.org.au.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Steffens
authors.forename: Mark J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Hancock
authors.forename: Chris G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Maher
authors.forename: Jane
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Latimer
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Satchell
authors.forename: Manuela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ferreira
authors.forename: Paulo H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Ferreira
authors.forename: Melissa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Partington
authors.forename: Anna-Louise
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Bouvier
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D059350:Chronic Pain / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy*; D005081:Exercise Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009517:New South Wales; D018710:Pain Clinics; D010147:Pain Measurement; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013997:Time Factors