title: Population dynamics and air pollution: the impact of demographics on health impact assessment of air pollution.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050.
  
  
  METHODS
  Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed health impact assessment model, which models four major diseases and mortality causes in addition to all-cause mortality. The modeling was at the municipal level, which divides the approximately 5.5 M residents in Denmark into 99 municipalities. Three sets of demographic assumptions were used: (1) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005-2050.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen, Denmark. emf@niph.dk
authors.forename: Esben Meulengracht
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Flachs
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sørensen
authors.forename: Jakob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bønløkke
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Brønnum-Hansen
mesh_terms: D000375:Aging; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000633:toxicity*; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D003710:Demography; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D062489:Health Impact Assessment; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants