title: An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.
abstract: Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area.
authors.affiliation: Department of Land Resources Management, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, PR China. xmoonq@sina.com
authors.forename: Yueqing
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: McNamara
authors.forename: Yanfang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Yue
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Dong
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D017059:Models, Econometric; D011156:Population Density; D011158:Population Growth; D012987:Soil; D014186:Transportation; D014507:Urbanization
chemical_list: D012987:Soil
keywords: Arable land; Dynamic change; Econometric model; Pinggu district of Beijing