title: What is the future burden of HPV-related cancers in Spain?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study is to analyze mortality trends of HPV-related cancers in Spain by gender, during the period 1996-2010, and make predictions until the year 2025.
  
  
  METHODS
  All deaths registered as cervical cancer were registered (ICD-10 code: C53), as well as vulvar and vaginal (C51 and C52), anal (C21), penile (C60), and oropharyngeal (C02, C09, C10). Adjusted rate calculations for each year were used to study the trends through the regression program Joinpoint. Predictions were made using the Nordpred program, utilizing the age-period-cohort model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In men, a statistically significant increase was observed in mortality by anal cancer, a reduction was observed in oropharyngeal cancer mortality and penile cancer rates were stable. In women, a statistically significant decreasing trend was observed for cervical, vulvar and vaginal cancers. In the predictions, the annual change relative to risk or population changes (size and structure) revealed a reduction in death risk by oropharyngeal cancer in men, and a reduction in death risk by anal cancer in women, although stable adjusted rates were verified for anal cancer in women.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although an increase was identified in the number of deaths for both genders, rates indicate gender differences in the trends, with increased rates for anal cancer and reduced rates for oropharyngeal cancer in men. Women presented reduced rates for cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers. For penile cancer and anal cancer in women, stable trends were verified.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Odontologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação Em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Avenida Salgado Filho, 1787-Lagoa Nova, Natal, RN, 59056-000, Brazil, dysouz@yahoo.com.br.
authors.forename: D L B
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: de Souza
authors.forename: M P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Curado
authors.forename: M M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Bernal
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Jerez Roig
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000821:virology*; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality*; D012042:Registries; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult