title: A study of the dengue epidemic and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, by using a zero-inflated Poisson regression model.
abstract: The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.
authors.affiliation: 1Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China.
authors.forename: Chenggang
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Baofa
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.forename: Jingchun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.forename: Furong
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Qiyong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012044:Regression Analysis
keywords: climate change; communicable diseases; epidemiology; occupational and environmental health; public health