title: Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria.
abstract: Recent autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria in previously malaria-free temperate regions has generated renewed interest in the epidemiology of this disease. Accurate estimates of the incubation period and time to relapse are required for effective malaria surveillance; however, this information is currently lacking. By using historical data from experimental human infections with diverse P. vivax strains, survival analysis models were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the incubation period and time to first relapse for P. vivax malaria in broad geographic regions. Results show that Eurasian strains from temperate regions have longer incubation periods, and Western Hemisphere strains from tropical and temperate regions have longer times to relapse compared with Eastern Hemisphere strains. The diversity in these estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for P. vivax supports the need for elucidating local epidemiology to inform clinical follow-up and to build an evidence base toward global elimination of malaria.
authors.affiliation: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, NationalUniversity of Singapore, Singapore. andrew.a.lover@gmail.com
authors.forename: Andrew A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Lover
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Coker
mesh_terms: D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006790:Host-Parasite Interactions; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D016780:Malaria, Vivax / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology / Q000517:prevention & control; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010966:Plasmodium vivax / Q000502:physiology*; D012008:Recurrence; D014329:Tropical Climate; D019366:Western World
keywords: Plasmodium vivax; epidemiology; geographic location; malaria; parasites; population surveillance; survival analysis; temperate; tropical; vector-borne infections; vivax