title: The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To quantify the relation between food prices and the demand for food with specific reference to national and household income levels.
  
  
  METHODS
  Systematic review with meta-regression.
  
  
  METHODS
  Online databases of peer reviewed and grey literature (ISI Web of Science, EconLit, PubMed, Medline, AgEcon, Agricola, Google, Google Scholar, IdeasREPEC, Eldis, USAID, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute), hand searched reference lists, and contact with authors.
  
  
  METHODS
  We included cross sectional, cohort, experimental, and quasi-experimental studies with English abstracts. Eligible studies used nationally representative data from 1990 onwards derived from national aggregate data sources, household surveys, or supermarket and home scanners.
  
  
  METHODS
  The primary outcome extracted from relevant papers was the quantification of the demand for foods in response to changes in food price (own price food elasticities). Descriptive and study design variables were extracted for use as covariates in analysis. We conducted meta-regressions to assess the effect of income levels between and within countries on the strength of the relation between food price and demand, and predicted price elasticities adjusted for differences across studies.
  
  
  RESULTS
  136 studies reporting 3495 own price food elasticities from 162 different countries were identified. Our models predict that increases in the price of all foods result in greater reductions in food consumption in poor countries: in low and high income countries, respectively, a 1% increase in the price of cereals results in reductions in consumption of 0.61% (95% confidence interval 0.56% to 0.66%) and 0.43% (0.36% to 0.48%), and a 1% increase in the price of meat results in reductions in consumption of 0.78% (0.73% to 0.83%) and 0.60% (0.54% to 0.66%). Within all countries, our models predict that poorer households will be the most adversely affected by increases in food prices.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Changes in global food prices will have a greater effect on food consumption in lower income countries and in poorer households within countries. This has important implications for national responses to increases in food prices and for the definition of policies designed to reduce the global burden of undernutrition.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. rosemary.green@lshtm.ac.uk
authors.forename: Rosemary
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Green
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Cornelsen
authors.forename: Alan D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Dangour
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Turner
authors.forename: Bhavani
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Shankar
authors.forename: Mario
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mazzocchi
authors.forename: Richard D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003198:Computer Simulation; D019049:Developed Countries / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004032:Diet / Q000191:economics*; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005502:Food / Q000191:economics*; D014943:Global Health; D015438:Health Behavior; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D044342:Malnutrition / Q000191:economics / Q000209:etiology; D018673:Nutrition Policy; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors