title: Pitfalls of predicting complex traits from SNPs.
abstract: The success of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has led to increasing interest in making predictions of complex trait phenotypes, including disease, from genotype data. Rigorous assessment of the value of predictors is crucial before implementation. Here we discuss some of the limitations and pitfalls of prediction analysis and show how naive implementations can lead to severe bias and misinterpretation of results.
authors.affiliation: Queensland Brain Institute, The University of Queensland, QBI Building, St Lucia, Queensland 4071, Australia.
authors.forename: Naomi R
authors.initials: NR
authors.lastname: Wray
authors.forename: Jian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Ben J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Hayes
authors.forename: Alkes L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Price
authors.forename: Michael E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Goddard
authors.forename: Peter M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Visscher
mesh_terms: D005819:Genetic Markers / Q000235:genetics; D014644:Genetic Variation; D055106:Genome-Wide Association Study; D023281:Genomics; D005838:Genotype; D006801:Humans; D008957:Models, Genetic; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010641:Phenotype; D020641:Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012306:Risk
chemical_list: D005819:Genetic Markers