title: Predicting novel trophic interactions in a non-native world.
abstract: Humans are altering the global distributional ranges of plants, while their co-evolved herbivores are frequently left behind. Native herbivores often colonise non-native plants, potentially reducing invasion success or causing economic loss to introduced agricultural crops. We developed a predictive model to forecast novel interactions and verified it with a data set containing hundreds of observed novel plant-insect interactions. Using a food network of 900 native European butterfly and moth species and 1944 native plants, we built an herbivore host-use model. By extrapolating host use from the native herbivore-plant food network, we accurately forecasted the observed novel use of 459 non-native plant species by native herbivores. Patterns that governed herbivore host breadth on co-evolved native plants were equally important in determining non-native hosts. Our results make the forecasting of novel herbivore communities feasible in order to better understand the fate and impact of introduced plants.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. ianspearse@gmail.com
authors.forename: Ian S
authors.initials: IS
authors.lastname: Pearse
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Altermatt
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005075:Biological Evolution; D058448:Biota; D004463:Ecology / Q000379:methods*; D020387:Food Chain; D005858:Germany; D058865:Introduced Species; D007814:Larva / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D007915:Lepidoptera / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D010802:Phylogeny; D018521:Plant Physiological Phenomena
keywords: Herbivory; host breadth; invasive species; novel interaction; phylogenetic constraint