title: The contribution of hip geometry to the prediction of hip osteoarthritis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine how well measures of hip geometry can predict radiological incident hip osteoarthritis (HOA) compared to well known clinical risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study population is part of the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort. Baseline pelvic radiographs were used to measure hip geometry by two methods: Statistical Shape Models (SSM) and predefined geometry parameters (PGPs). Incident HOA (Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) ≥ 2) was assessed in 688 participants after 6.5 years without radiographic HOA at baseline. The ability to predict HOA was quantified using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Comparison of the two methods showed that both contain information that is not captured by the other method. At 6.5 years follow-up 132 hips had incident HOA. Five PGPs (Wiberg angle, Neck Width (NW), Pelvic Width (PW), Hip Axis Length (HAL) and Triangular Index (TI)) and two SSM (modes 5 and 9) were significant predictors of HOA (P = 0.007). Hip geometry added 7% to the prediction obtained by clinical risk factors (AUC = 0.67 (geometry), 0.66 (gender, age, Body Mass Index (BMI)) and combining both: AUC = 0.73, respectively). Mode 12 (associated with position of the femoral head in acetabulum) and Wiberg angle were predictors of HOA in participants without radiological signs at baseline (KL = 0). Although the strength of the prediction decreased for all variables at a longer follow-up, the contribution of hip geometry was still significant (P = 0.01).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Hip geometry has a moderate ability to predict HOA in participants with and without initial signs of osteoarthritis (OA), similar to and largely independent of the predictive value of clinical risk factors.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; The Netherlands Genomics Initiative-sponsored Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Aging (NGI-NCHA), Rotterdam/Leiden, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Castaño-Betancourt
authors.forename: J B J
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Van Meurs
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bierma-Zeinstra
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rivadeneira
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hofman
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Weinans
authors.forename: A G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Uitterlinden
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Waarsing
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000886:Anthropometry / Q000379:methods; D005260:Female; D006621:Hip Joint / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015588:Observer Variation; D015207:Osteoarthritis, Hip / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011859:Radiography; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: Hip geometry; Hip osteoarthritis; Prediction