title: Increased threat of island endemic tree's extirpation via invasion-induced decline of intrinsic resistance to recurring tropical cyclones.
abstract: Cycas micronesica populations in Guam have been threatened by the invasion of the armored scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui. I integrate four factors that illuminate an acute need for intervention to reduce an unprecedented threat caused by the invasion. First, mechanical failure of healthy C. micronesica trees during catastrophic winds is rare because of the cycad tree's unique pachycaulis stem design. Second, tree-winching and three-point bend stress tests revealed the natural resistance to damage from tropical cyclones has been compromised by the chronic feeding of this homopteran pest. Third, no typhoon event has occurred since the arthropod's invasion and its spread in the year 2005 to actually test extent of mechanical failure for the unhealthy remaining trees. Fourth, historical records indicate the probability that Guam will experience typhoon force winds is 0.51 in three years and 0.91 in 10 y. These four factors integrate to predict the next typhoon may eliminate the surviving C. micronesica trees and stewardship of this declining population requires intervention to counter this prediction.
authors.affiliation: Western Pacific Tropical Research Center; University of Guam; UOG Station; Mangilao, Guam USA.
authors.forename: Thomas E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Marler
keywords: Cycas micronesica; biomechanics; cyclone; endangered species conservation; hurricane; invasion biology; large infrequent disturbance; typhoon