title: The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000-2010.
abstract: We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1°C was associated with a 5·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·2-8·8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3·5%, 95% CI -2·1 to 9·1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0·5% (95% CI 0·1-1·0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0·6%, 95% CI 0·1-1·1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.
authors.affiliation: Department of International Public Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Grjibovski
authors.affiliation: WHO Office in Kazakhstan, Astana, Kazakhstan.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kosbayeva
authors.affiliation: WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn Office, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Menne
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D007623:Kazakhstan / Q000453:epidemiology; D011891:Rain; D012307:Risk Factors; D012480:Salmonella Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature