title: Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates: a validation study of an integrated-actuarial risk assessment instrument.
abstract: This study is an initial validation study of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates instrument (TTV), a violence risk appraisal instrument designed to support an integrated-actuarial approach to violence risk assessment. The TTV was scored retrospectively from file information on a sample of violent offenders. Construct validity was examined by comparing the TTV with instruments that have shown utility to predict violence that were prospectively scored: The Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form (LCSF). Predictive validity was examined through a long-term follow-up of 12.4 years with a sample of 78 incarcerated offenders. Results show the TTV to be highly correlated with the HCR-20 and LCSF. The base rate for violence over the follow-up period was 47.4%, and the TTV was equally predictive of violent recidivism relative to the HCR-20 and LCSF. Discussion centers on the advantages of an integrated-actuarial approach to the assessment of violence risk.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
authors.forename: Jeremy F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Mills
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
authors.forename: Andrew L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Gray
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000374:Aggression / Q000523:psychology; D019540:Area Under Curve; D003415:Crime / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D057237:Criminals / Q000523:psychology*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011581:Psychological Tests / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011594:Psychometrics / Q000379:methods; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards; D012307:Risk Factors; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055815:Young Adult