title: Estimated demand for women's health services by 2020.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the demand for women's health care by 2020 using today's national utilization standards.
  
  
  METHODS
  This descriptive study incorporated the most current national data resources to design a simulation model to create a health and economic profile for a representative sample of women from each state. Demand was determined utilizing equations about projected use of obstetrics-gynecology (ob-gyn) services. Applying patient profile and health care demand equations, we estimated the demand for providers in 2010 in each state for comparison with supply based on the 2010 American Medical Association Masterfile. U.S. Census Bureau population projections were used to project women's health care demands in 2020.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The national demand for women's health care is forecast to grow by 6% by 2020. Most (81%) ob-gyn related services will be for women of reproductive age (18-44 years old). Growth in demand is forecast to be highest in states with the greatest population growth (Texas, Florida), where supply is currently less than adequate (western United States), and among Hispanic women. This increase in demand by 2020 will translate into a need for physicians or nonphysician clinicians, which is clinically equivalent to 2,090 full-time ob-gyns.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Using today's national norms of ob-gyn related services, a modest growth in women's health care demands is estimated by 2020 that will require a larger provider workforce.
authors.affiliation: IHS Global Inc., Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
authors.forename: Timothy M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Dall
authors.forename: Ritashree
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Chakrabarti
authors.forename: Michael V
authors.initials: MV
authors.lastname: Storm
authors.forename: Erika C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Elwell
authors.forename: William F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Rayburn
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D006176:Gynecology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D009774:Obstetrics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014932:Women's Health Services / Q000639:trends*; D055815:Young Adult