title: Using speeding detections and numbers of fatalities to estimate relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists and car drivers.
abstract: Precise estimation of the relative risk of motorcyclists being involved in a fatal accident compared to car drivers is difficult. Simple estimates based on the proportions of licenced drivers or riders that are killed in a fatal accident are biased as they do not take into account the exposure to risk. However, exposure is difficult to quantify. Here we adapt the ideas behind the well known induced exposure methods and use available summary data on speeding detections and fatalities for motorcycle riders and car drivers to estimate the relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists compared to car drivers under mild assumptions. The method is applied to data on motorcycle riders and car drivers in Victoria, Australia in 2010 and a small simulation study is conducted.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia. Electronic address: r.huggins@ms.unimelb.edu.au.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Huggins
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality*; D001315:Australia; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001336:Automobiles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D035846:Law Enforcement / Q000379:methods; D009049:Motorcycles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012306:Risk
keywords: Induced exposure; Motorcycle; Relative risk