title: Preliminary stochastic model for managing Vibrio parahaemolyticus and total viable bacterial counts in a Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) supply chain.
abstract: Vibrio parahaemolyticus can accumulate and grow in oysters stored without refrigeration, representing a potential food safety risk. High temperatures during oyster storage can lead to an increase in total viable bacteria counts, decreasing product shelf life. Therefore, a predictive tool that allows the estimation of both V. parahaemolyticus populations and total viable bacteria counts in parallel is needed. A stochastic model was developed to quantitatively assess the populations of V. parahaemolyticus and total viable bacteria in Pacific oysters for six different supply chain scenarios. The stochastic model encompassed operations from oyster farms through consumers and was built using risk analysis software. Probabilistic distributions and predictions for the percentage of Pacific oysters containing V. parahaemolyticus and high levels of viable bacteria at the point of consumption were generated for each simulated scenario. This tool can provide valuable information about V. parahaemolyticus exposure and potential control measures and can help oyster companies and regulatory agencies evaluate the impact of product quality and safety during cold chain management. If coupled with suitable monitoring systems, such models could enable preemptive action to be taken to counteract unfavorable supply chain conditions.
authors.affiliation: Australian Seafood Cooperative Research Centre, Box 26, Mark Oliphant Building, Adelaide, South Australia.
authors.forename: Judith
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fernandez-Piquer
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Bowman
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ross
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Estrada-Flores
authors.forename: Mark L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Tamplin
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D015169:Colony Count, Microbial; D049896:Crassostrea / Q000382:microbiology*; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000032:analysis*; D005516:Food Microbiology; D059022:Food Safety; D006801:Humans; D050296:Microbial Viability; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012758:Shellfish / Q000382:microbiology*; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014736:Vibrio parahaemolyticus / Q000254:growth & development*