title: Scenario development as a basis for formulating a research program on future agriculture: a methodological approach.
abstract: To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers.
authors.affiliation: Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Box 7043, Ulls väg 16, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden, ingrid.oborn@slu.se.
authors.forename: Ingrid
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Oborn
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bengtsson
authors.forename: Fredrik
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Hedenus
authors.forename: Lotta
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Rydhmer
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stenström
authors.forename: Katarina
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Vrede
authors.forename: Charles
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Westin
authors.forename: Ulf
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Magnusson
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D057231:Climate Change; D005523:Food Supply; D012106:Research