title: Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy.
abstract: This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China's Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 μg/m(3) [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m(3) of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).
authors.affiliation: Applied Economics Department, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
authors.forename: Yuyu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Avraham
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ebenstein
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Greenstone
authors.forename: Hongbin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects*; D044466:Asian People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000208:ethnology / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D002681:China; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000506:poisoning; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012307:Risk Factors; D045483:Rivers; D015996:Survival Rate
chemical_list: D052638:Particulate Matter
keywords: Chinese environmental quality; airborne particulate matter; health costs of coal combustion; premature mortality; unintended consequences of policy