title: Health and economic burden of obesity in Brazil.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Higher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs.
  
  
  METHODS
  A previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI).
  
  
  RESULTS
  In 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m(2)), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Obesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.
authors.affiliation: Micro Health Simulations, London, United Kingdom. ketevan.rtveladze@heartforum.org.uk
authors.forename: Ketevan
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Rtveladze
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Marsh
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Webber
authors.forename: Fanny
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Kilpi
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Levy
authors.forename: Wolney
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Conde
authors.forename: Klim
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: McPherson
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Brown
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D050177:Overweight / Q000191:economics / Q000503:physiopathology; D055815:Young Adult