title: Comparison of short-term rainfall forecasts for model-based flow prediction in urban drainage systems.
abstract: Forecast-based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real-time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecast - a radar rainfall extrapolation-based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real-time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 h. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short lead times and the weather model for larger lead times.
authors.affiliation: Aalborg University, Department of Civil Engineering, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, 9000 Aalborg, Denmark. st@civil.aau.dk
authors.forename: Søren
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Thorndahl
authors.forename: Troels Sander
authors.initials: TS
authors.lastname: Poulsen
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Bøvith
authors.forename: Morten
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Borup
authors.forename: Malte
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ahm
authors.forename: Jesper Ellerbæk
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Nielsen
authors.forename: Morten
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Grum
authors.forename: Michael R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Rasmussen
authors.forename: Rasphall
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gill
authors.forename: Peter Steen
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Mikkelsen
mesh_terms: D002947:Cities; D004323:Drainage, Sanitary; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011825:Radar; D011891:Rain; D013997:Time Factors; D014865:Waste Disposal, Fluid; D014872:Water Movements