title: Estimation of the projections of the incidence rates, mortality and prevalence due to common cancer site in Isfahan, Iran.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Accurate statistics on the cancer burden are essential, both for purposes of research and for setting priorities in healthcare management. So that in vast countries with partial registration coverage, such as Iran, local data are more useful. We here estimated the incidence, prevalence and mortality time trend of four major cancer site, lung, stomach, breast and prostate, over the period 2001-2010 and provided short-range projections to 2015 in Isfahan.
  
  
  METHODS
  Estimates were derived by applying the mortality-incidence analysis method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic degenerative disease, starting from knowledge of mortality and relative survival information.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age adjusted incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in Isfahan exhibited a clear upward trend for all four sites during the period 2001-2015, with marked increases in prostate and breast predicted for the future. Difference in incidence trends between males and females might be attributable to the difference in risk factors specific to certain cancer sites, with smoking being the main risk factor.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this study, males and females displayed an increasing pattern for incidence and mortality rate over the entire study period until 2015. This information can be used as basis for planning healthcare management and allocating recourses in public health.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Qorveh, Iran. f_moradpour@hlth.mui.ac.ir
authors.forename: Farhad
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Moradpour
authors.forename: Zeinab
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Fatemi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate; D055815:Young Adult