title: [Migration. Opportunities for recruitment of skilled employees in the care sector].
abstract: A central objective of this study was to estimate the potential workforce for the elderly care sector in Germany and to compare it with the predicted demand for nurses in 2030. The authors describe the opportunities and obstacles in recruiting skilled professionals from EU member states and from countries outside the EU. Different scenarios of how to raise labor input are discussed so as to determine the domestic potential until 2030 in Germany. The results show that only by assuming unrealistic conditions, e. g., expectations of a high full-time working quota or far more working women, can the domestic potential meet the predicted future demands. Therefore, Germany's chances of attracting skilled foreign workers were assessed by analyzing wage differentials, unemployment probabilities, demographic developments, and professional and cultural aspects between the countries. A major finding study is that the German labor market cannot provide enough nursing care professionals for the elderly care sector by 2030. Secondly, most of the other EU member states are facing similar challenges, at least in the long run. Therefore, it is recommendable to intensify collaboration with populous Asian countries in the future.
authors.affiliation: Institut für Europäische Gesundheits- und Sozialwirtschaft GmbH, IEGUS, Reinhardtstr. 31, 10117, Berlin, Deutschland. braeseke@iegus.eu
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Braeseke
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Merda
authors.forename: T K
authors.initials: TK
authors.lastname: Bauer
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Otten
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Stroka
authors.forename: A E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Talmann
mesh_terms: D054242:Emigrants and Immigrants / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany; D019456:Health Transition; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D020380:Needs Assessment; D009729:Nursing / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D009732:Nursing Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D000078329:Workforce