title: The relationship between formative and summative examination and PANCE results: a multi-program study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This correlational research study was conducted to validate externally a previous pilot study that examined the relationship between formative and summative examinations and PANCE scores at one physician assistant (PA) program. The study was expanded to five PA programs to test the hypothesis that PA programs throughout the country could use comprehensive examinations that mirrored the Physician Assistant National Certifying Exam (PANCE) along with the Physician Assistant Clinical Knowledge Rating and Assessment Tool (PACKRAT) scores to predict future PANCE performance successfully.
  
  
  METHODS
  The six participating PA programs administered the SUMM I, which is a 360-question PANCE simulation exam based upon the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA) blueprint, the SUMM II, a 700-question examination based upon the NCCPA blueprint, and the PACKRAT examination to all second-year students. Participating programs were provided cut scores for each of the test instruments that identified students at critical risk for failing the PANCE.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The scores of the study participants from the originating institution were gathered between 2007 and 2010 and from five additional programs in 2011-2012 to determine correlational strength between the instruments and the PANCE. The SUMM I, SUMM II, and PACKRAT scores (N = 421) were combined in a regression model to generate a predicted PANCE score. The strength of correlation between the predicted PANCE score and actual PANCE score demonstrated an Rvalue of 0.79 and an R2 Of 0.62.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This correlational study suggests that summative examination instruments can be developed and triangulated with PACKRAT scores to predict future performance on the PANCE and determine thresholds of risk for failing the PANCE based upon stratified levels of past performance.
authors.affiliation: School of Physician Assistant Studies, Misericordia University, Dallas, Pennsylvania 18612-1090 USA. smassey@misericordia.edu
authors.forename: Scott L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Massey
authors.forename: Louise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Sonia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Young
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Holmerud
mesh_terms: D002568:Certification / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002983:Clinical Competence; D004521:Educational Measurement / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008404:Massachusetts; D010823:Physician Assistants / Q000193:education*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires