title: Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock.
abstract: Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan.
authors.affiliation: FIRST, Aihara Innovative Mathematical Modelling Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan. omi@sat.t.utokyo.ac.jp
authors.forename: Takahiro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Omi
authors.forename: Yosihiko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ogata
authors.forename: Yoshito
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hirata
authors.forename: Kazuyuki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Aihara