title: A probabilistic model for the carry-over of PCDD/Fs from feed to growing pigs.
abstract: When food producing animals are contaminated with PCDD/F congeners, information on the contaminant's concentration in the bodies of the animals at time of slaughter is needed for risk management purposes. We have developed a mathematical model for the kinetics of PCDD/Fs in growing pigs in case of contaminated feed fed for a limited duration of time. This model allows the prediction of concentrations in body fat. It considers absorption fractions of PCDD/Fs, clearance by metabolism, dilution by growth and excretion through fecal fat. The model parameters were calibrated by fitting the model to experimental data. On the basis of this toxicokinetic model a probabilistic model has been constructed. The probabilistic model handles the parameters with appropriate probability distributions and Monte-Carlo simulation technique, providing for realistic situations with many animals and a range of contaminations and feeding intervals. We applied the new model to describe the German dioxin incident of winter 2010/2011 and discuss its viability as decision tool. The approach demonstrated here is a showcase how a risk assessment in the case of contaminated feeding can be performed.
authors.affiliation: Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR), Max-Dohrn Str. 8-10, 10589 Berlin, Germany. julian.adolphs@jku.at
authors.forename: Julian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Adolphs
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Kleinjung
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Numata
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Mielke
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Abraham
authors.forename: Helmut
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Schafft
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Müller-Graf
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Greiner
mesh_terms: D000273:Adipose Tissue / Q000378:metabolism; D000821:Animal Feed / Q000032:analysis; D000818:Animals; D004147:Dioxins / Q000032:analysis / Q000378:metabolism* / Q000633:toxicity*; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis / Q000378:metabolism* / Q000633:toxicity*; D005506:Food Contamination; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010599:Pharmacokinetics; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D034421:Sus scrofa / Q000378:metabolism*
chemical_list: D004147:Dioxins; D004785:Environmental Pollutants
keywords: Carry-over; Growing pigs; Kinetic model; Monte-Carlo simulation; PCDD/F