title: Land use in life cycle assessment: global characterization factors based on regional and global potential species extinction.
abstract: Land use is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss. However, many life cycle assessment studies do not yet assess this effect because of the lack of reliable and operational methods. Here, we present an approach to modeling the impacts of regional land use on plants, mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Our global analysis calculates the total potential damage caused by all land uses within each WWF ecoregion and allocates this total damage to different types of land use per ecoregion. We use an adapted (matrix-calibrated) species-area relationship to model the potential regional extinction of nonendemic species caused by reversible land use and land use change impacts. The potential global extinction of endemic species is used to assess irreversible, permanent impacts. Model uncertainty is assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of land use on biodiversity varied strongly across ecoregions, showing the highest values in regions where most natural habitat had been converted in the past. The approach is thus retrospective and was able to highlight the impacts in highly disturbed regions. However, we also illustrate how it can be applied to prospective assessments using scenarios of future land use. Uncertainties, modeling choices, and validity are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. laura.debaan@env.ethz.ch
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: de Baan
authors.forename: Christopher L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Mutel
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Curran
authors.forename: Stefanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hellweg
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Koellner
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D004777:Environment; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D035501:Uncertainty