title: Duration of immunity to norovirus gastroenteritis.
abstract: The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2-5.1) to 8.7 (95% CI 6.8-11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (<5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.
authors.affiliation: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
authors.forename: Kirsten
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Simmons
authors.forename: Manoj
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gambhir
authors.forename: Juan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Leon
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lopman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000465:Algorithms; D017250:Caliciviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000276:immunology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease; D006801:Humans; D007110:Immunity, Active; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D018448:Models, Immunological; D029322:Norovirus / Q000276:immunology*; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014611:Vaccination; D014765:Viral Vaccines; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D014765:Viral Vaccines
keywords: Norovirus; acute gastroenteritis; enteric infections; immunity; incidence; mathematical model; modeling; vaccination; vaccine development; viruses