title: Determinants of government HIV/AIDS financing: a 10-year trend analysis from 125 low- and middle-income countries.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Trends and predictors of domestic spending from public sources provide national authorities and international donors with a better understanding of the HIV financing architecture, the fulfillment of governments' commitments and potential for long-term sustainability.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed government financing of HIV using evidence from country reports on domestic spending. Panel data from 2000 to 2010 included information from 647 country-years amongst 125 countries. A random-effects model was used to analyze ten year trends and identify independent predictors of public HIV spending.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Low- and middle-income countries spent US$ 2.1 billion from government sources in 2000, growing to US$ 6.6 billion in 2010, a three-fold increase. Per capita spending in 2010 ranged from 5 cents in low-level HIV epidemics in the Middle East to US$ 32 in upper-middle income countries with generalized HIV epidemics in Southern Africa. The average domestic public spending per capita was US$ 2.55. The analysis found that GDP per capita and HIV prevalence are positively associated with increasing levels of HIV-spending from public sources; a 10 percent increase in HIV prevalence is associated with a 2.5 percent increase in domestic funding for HIV. Additionally, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with an 11.49 percent increase in public spending for HIV and these associations were highly significant.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Domestic resources in low- and middle-income countries showed a threefold increase between 2000 and 2010 and currently support 50 percent of the global response with 41 percent coming from sub-Saharan Africa. Domestic spending in LMICs was associated with increased economic growth and an increased burden of HIV. Sustained increases in funding for HIV from public sources were observed in all regions and emphasize the increasing importance of government financing.
authors.affiliation: Abt Associates, 4550 Montgomery Ave, Suite 800 North, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Carlos_avila@abtassoc.com
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ávila
authors.forename: Dejan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Loncar
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Amico
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: De Lay
mesh_terms: D003906:Developing Countries; D005380:Financing, Government / Q000639:trends*; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000191:economics* / Q000628:therapy; D054624:Health Status Disparities; D006801:Humans; D011204:Poverty Areas; D012923:Social Class; D064890:Social Determinants of Health / Q000191:economics* / Q000592:standards / Q000639:trends