title: Forecasting peaks of seasonal influenza epidemics.
abstract: We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based estimates of influenza activity from Google Flu Trends for 2004-2005, 2007-2008 and 2012-2013 flu seasons. In some cases, the peak could be forecasted 5-6 weeks ahead. This study adds to existing resources for influenza forecasting and the proposed method can be used in conjunction with other approaches in an ensemble framework.
authors.affiliation: Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA ; Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA ; Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
authors.forename: Elaine
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Nsoesie
authors.forename: Madhav
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mararthe
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Brownstein