title: [Impact of demographic change on the employment for carers in central Germany. An analysis of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia].
abstract: This article provides a detailed analysis of the current state of the labor market for long-term carers in the Federal States of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia and uses model calculations to derive trends until the year 2025. Examining the current situation, we look at the ratio of unemployed persons to registered job vacancies, the duration of the vacancy, the short-term and long-term employment trend, the replacement demand, and the job-specific unemployment rates. In addition, wages are discussed as the central clearing mechanism between labor demand and labor supply. Employment bottlenecks are evident for nurses and social workers, which will be exacerbated in the future owing to a strong demographic change. On the one hand, demand for long-term care will grow along with the increase of elderly people. On the other hand, the labor force potential and hence the supply of long-term carers will decrease. Model calculations show that in these three Federal States, between 18,100 and 31,700 long-term carers (in full-time employment) will additionally be needed for the elderly. Employers in this field will face grave challenges in meeting these needs.
authors.affiliation: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, IAB Regional Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen, Frau-von-Selmnitz-Str. 6, 06110, Halle (Saale), Deutschland. michaela.fuchs@iab.de
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fuchs
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Weyh
mesh_terms: D002321:Career Choice; D005858:Germany; D019456:Health Transition; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D020380:Needs Assessment; D009729:Nursing / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D009732:Nursing Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D009735:Nursing Homes / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D010561:Personnel Staffing and Scheduling / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011158:Population Growth; D000078329:Workforce