title: Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.
  
  
  RESULTS
  First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800-14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%-88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India.
authors.affiliation: Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. fred.piel@zoo.ox.ac.uk
authors.forename: Frédéric B
authors.initials: FB
authors.lastname: Piel
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
authors.forename: Sunetra
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Gupta
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Weatherall
authors.forename: Thomas N
authors.initials: TN
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001723:Birth Rate; D002675:Child, Preschool; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003710:Demography; D014943:Global Health / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D012307:Risk Factors; D012805:Sickle Cell Trait / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013997:Time Factors