title: Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age- and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55-59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7-4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1-19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age- and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5-12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6-23.7 million) if the age- and sex-specific prevalence remains stable.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Bouwe P
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: Krijthe
authors.forename: Anton
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kunst
authors.forename: Emelia J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Benjamin
authors.forename: Gregory Y H
authors.initials: GY
authors.lastname: Lip
authors.forename: Oscar H
authors.initials: OH
authors.lastname: Franco
authors.forename: Albert
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hofman
authors.forename: Jacqueline C M
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Witteman
authors.forename: Bruno H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Stricker
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Heeringa
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005062:European Union / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D017678:Sex Distribution
keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Epidemiology
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