title: Search strategy has influenced the discovery rate of human viruses.
abstract: A widely held concern is that the pace of infectious disease emergence has been increasing. We have analyzed the rate of discovery of pathogenic viruses, the preeminent source of newly discovered causes of human disease, from 1897 through 2010. The rate was highest during 1950-1969, after which it moderated. This general picture masks two distinct trends: for arthropod-borne viruses, which comprised 39% of pathogenic viruses, the discovery rate peaked at three per year during 1960-1969, but subsequently fell nearly to zero by 1980; however, the rate of discovery of nonarboviruses remained stable at about two per year from 1950 through 2010. The period of highest arbovirus discovery coincided with a comprehensive program supported by The Rockefeller Foundation of isolating viruses from humans, animals, and arthropod vectors at field stations in Latin America, Africa, and India. The productivity of this strategy illustrates the importance of location, approach, long-term commitment, and sponsorship in the discovery of emerging pathogens.
authors.affiliation: Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA. viruslist@cdc.gov
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rosenberg
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.forename: Ann M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Powers
authors.forename: Barry R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Miller
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D004199:Disease Vectors; D005843:Geography; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D014773:Virology / Q000266:history*; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history; D014780:Viruses / Q000145:classification / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology
keywords: emerging diseases; zoonoses
references.citation: Nat Rev Microbiol. 2004 Oct;2(10):789-801
references.pmid: 15378043
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1999 Nov 23;96(24):13910-3
references.pmid: 10570172
references.citation: Nat Rev Microbiol. 2011 Jun 13;9(7):532-41
references.pmid: 21666708
references.citation: J Virol. 2006 Jun;80(11):5627-30
references.pmid: 16699043
references.citation: Nat Genet. 2007 Sep;39(9):1162-6
references.pmid: 17694056
references.citation: Science. 2006 Jan 13;311(5758):236-8
references.pmid: 16410525
references.citation: J Virol. 1997 Jan;71(1):613-23
references.pmid: 8985391
references.citation: Crit Rev Microbiol. 2007;33(4):231-42
references.pmid: 18033594
references.citation: Nature. 2008 Feb 21;451(7181):990-3
references.pmid: 18288193
references.citation: Virol J. 2008 Feb 27;5:33
references.pmid: 18304328
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Aug 3;101(31):11344-9
references.pmid: 15277679
references.citation: Proc Biol Sci. 2012 Jun 7;279(1736):2269-74
references.pmid: 22298844
references.citation: Mol Biol Evol. 2002 Dec;19(12):2333-6
references.pmid: 12446826
references.citation: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2004 Jul 29;359(1447):1049-58
references.pmid: 15306389
references.citation: Proc Biol Sci. 2008 Sep 22;275(1647):2111-5
references.pmid: 18505720
references.citation: Science. 1985 Nov 1;230(4725):548-50
references.pmid: 4048949
references.citation: Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 2007;315:85-111
references.pmid: 17848062
references.citation: Clin Lab Med. 2010 Mar;30(1):209-19
references.pmid: 20513548
references.citation: Annu Rev Med. 1982;33:1-29
references.pmid: 7044268
references.citation: J Infect Dis. 2004 May 1;189(9):1747-83; discussion 1744-6
references.pmid: 15116315
references.citation: Proc Biol Sci. 2007 Jul 7;274(1618):1651-8
references.pmid: 17456460