title: Determination of areas with the most significant shift in persistence of pests in Europe under climate change.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on the ranges of crop pest species in Europe. The organisms included in the study were species from the family Tortricidae (Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana) and the family Pyralidae (Ostrinia nubilalis), Chrysomelidae beetles (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus) and species from the family Aphididae (Ropalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae). Climate conditions in the year 2055 were simulated using a subset of five representative global circulation models. Model simulations using these climate change scenarios showed significant shifts in the climatic niches of the species in this study.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For Central Europe, the models predicted a shift in the ranges of pest species to higher altitudes and increases in the number of generations (NG) of the pests. In contrast, in the southern regions of Europe, the NG is likely to decrease owing to insufficient humidity. The ranges of species are likely to shift to the north.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on the ensemble-scenario mean for 2055, a climate-driven northward shift of between 3° N (O. nubilalis) and 11° N (L. botrana) is expected. The areas that are most sensitive to experiencing a significant increase in climate suitability for future pest persistence were identified. These areas include Central Europe, the higher altitudes of the Alps and Carpathians and areas above 55° N.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; CzechGlobe-Global Change Research Centre ASCR, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Eva
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Svobodová
authors.forename: Miroslav
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Trnka
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Dubrovský
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Semerádová
authors.forename: Josef
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Eitzinger
authors.forename: Petr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Stěpánek
authors.forename: Zdeněk
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zalud
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001042:Aphids / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D001517:Coleoptera / Q000502:physiology*; D004777:Environment; D005060:Europe; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009036:Moths / Q000502:physiology*; D013045:Species Specificity
keywords: climate matching; endangered areas; northern range; pests