title: Will climate change promote future invasions?
abstract: Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.
authors.affiliation: Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris-Sud, Orsay Cedex, FR-91405, France.
authors.forename: Celine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bellard
authors.forename: Wilfried
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thuiller
authors.forename: Boris
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Leroy
authors.forename: Piero
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Genovesi
authors.forename: Michel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bakkenes
authors.forename: Franck
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Courchamp
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004777:Environment; D058865:Introduced Species; D007448:Invertebrates; D008954:Models, Biological; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D063148:Plant Dispersal; D012621:Seasons; D014714:Vertebrates
keywords: Climate change; invasive species; land use change; species distribution models
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Jan 4;108(1):203-7
references.pmid: 21173227
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Feb 8;108(6):2306-11
references.pmid: 21262825
references.citation: Conserv Biol. 2008 Jun;22(3):534-43
references.pmid: 18577082
references.citation: Conserv Biol. 2008 Jun;22(3):585-92
references.pmid: 18577088
references.citation: Trends Ecol Evol. 2008 Aug;23(8):453-60
references.pmid: 18582986
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Apr 3;104(14):5738-42
references.pmid: 17389402
references.citation: PLoS One. 2012;7(3):e32529
references.pmid: 22457717
references.citation: Nature. 2012 Sep 13;489(7415):290-4
references.pmid: 22832582
references.citation: Trends Ecol Evol. 2009 Dec;24(12):686-93
references.pmid: 19712994
references.citation: PLoS Biol. 2007 Jun;5(6):e157
references.pmid: 17550306
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Apr 18;103(16):6110-5
references.pmid: 16606851
references.citation: Science. 1988 Jun 3;240(4857):1285-93
references.pmid: 3287615
references.citation: Trends Ecol Evol. 2013 Jan;28(1):58-66
references.pmid: 22889499
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Jan 4;108(1):220-5
references.pmid: 21173219
references.citation: Science. 2005 Jul 22;309(5734):570-4
references.pmid: 16040698
references.citation: Trends Ecol Evol. 2007 Jan;22(1):42-7
references.pmid: 17011070
references.citation: Nature. 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):57-60
references.pmid: 12511952
references.citation: Science. 2012 Mar 16;335(6074):1344-8
references.pmid: 22422981