title: Community-level phenological response to climate change.
abstract: Climate change may disrupt interspecies phenological synchrony, with adverse consequences to ecosystem functioning. We present here a 40-y-long time series on 10,425 dates that were systematically collected in a single Russian locality for 97 plant, 78 bird, 10 herptile, 19 insect, and 9 fungal phenological events, as well as for 77 climatic events related to temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and frost. We show that species are shifting their phenologies at dissimilar rates, partly because they respond to different climatic factors, which in turn are shifting at dissimilar rates. Plants have advanced their spring phenology even faster than average temperature has increased, whereas migratory birds have shown more divergent responses and shifted, on average, less than plants. Phenological events of birds and insects were mainly triggered by climate cues (variation in temperature and snow and ice cover) occurring over the course of short periods, whereas many plants, herptiles, and fungi were affected by long-term climatic averages. Year-to-year variation in plants, herptiles, and insects showed a high degree of synchrony, whereas the phenological timing of fungi did not correlate with any other taxonomic group. In many cases, species that are synchronous in their year-to-year dynamics have also shifted in congruence, suggesting that climate change may have disrupted phenological synchrony less than has been previously assumed. Our results illustrate how a multidimensional change in the physical environment has translated into a community-level change in phenology.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, 00014, Helsinki, Finland. otso.ovaskainen@helsinki.fi
authors.forename: Otso
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Ovaskainen
authors.forename: Svetlana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Skorokhodova
authors.forename: Marina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yakovleva
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sukhov
authors.forename: Anatoliy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kutenkov
authors.forename: Nadezhda
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kutenkova
authors.forename: Anatoliy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Shcherbakov
authors.forename: Evegeniy
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Meyke
authors.forename: Maria del Mar
authors.initials: Mdel M
authors.lastname: Delgado
mesh_terms: D000064:Acclimatization / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000254:growth & development*; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D005658:Fungi / Q000254:growth & development; D007053:Ice; D007313:Insecta / Q000254:growth & development; D008954:Models, Biological; D063245:Plant Development; D011891:Rain; D012426:Russia; D012621:Seasons; D012914:Snow; D013045:Species Specificity; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D007053:Ice
keywords: boreal forest; global warming; mismatch; trophic interactions
references.citation: Science. 2009 May 15;324(5929):886-7
references.pmid: 19443769
references.citation: Science. 2000 Mar 10;287(5459):1770-4
references.pmid: 10710299
references.citation: Ecology. 2012 Sep;93(9):1987-93
references.pmid: 23094369
references.citation: Int J Biometeorol. 2011 Nov;55(6):805-17
references.pmid: 21509461
references.citation: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2010 Oct 12;365(1555):3177-86
references.pmid: 20819811
references.citation: Nature. 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):37-42
references.pmid: 12511946
references.citation: Ecol Lett. 2009 Feb;12(2):184-95
references.pmid: 19049509
references.citation: Ecol Lett. 2007 Aug;10(8):710-7
references.pmid: 17594426
references.citation: Proc Biol Sci. 2001 Feb 7;268(1464):289-94
references.pmid: 11217900
references.citation: Ecol Lett. 2012 Jun;15(6):545-53
references.pmid: 22433120
references.citation: Proc Biol Sci. 2011 Aug 7;278(1716):2369-75
references.pmid: 21177687
references.citation: Science. 2008 May 9;320(5877):800-3
references.pmid: 18467590
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Dec 20;108(51):20645-9
references.pmid: 22143794
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Sep 12;103(37):13740-4
references.pmid: 16954189
references.citation: Trends Ecol Evol. 2010 Jun;25(6):325-31
references.pmid: 20392517
references.citation: Oecologia. 2006 Feb;147(1):164-72
references.pmid: 16328547
references.citation: Science. 2010 Mar 19;327(5972):1461-2
references.pmid: 20299580
references.citation: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2010 Oct 12;365(1555):3161-76
references.pmid: 20819810
references.citation: Nature. 2002 Mar 28;416(6879):389-95
references.pmid: 11919621
references.citation: Nature. 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):57-60
references.pmid: 12511952
references.citation: Ecol Lett. 2012 Apr;15(4):365-377
references.pmid: 22257223
references.citation: Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Aug;19(8):2348-59
references.pmid: 23640772
references.citation: Ecol Lett. 2008 Dec;11(12):1351-63
references.pmid: 19062363
references.citation: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2013 Jul 08;368(1624):20120489
references.pmid: 23836793
references.citation: Trends Ecol Evol. 1999 Apr;14(4):146-150
references.pmid: 10322520