title: Modelling the role of drug barons on the prevalence of drug epidemics.
abstract: Substance abuse is a global menace with immeasurable consequences to the health of users, the quality of life and the economy of countries affected. Although the prominently known routes of initiation into drug use are; by contact between potential users and individuals already using the drugs and self initiation, the role played by a special class of individuals referred to as drug lords can not be ignored. We consider a simple but useful compartmental model of drug use that accounts for the contribution of contagion and drug lords to initiation into drug use and drug epidemics. We show that the model has a drug free equilibrium when the threshold parameter R0 is less that unity and a drug persistent equilibrium when R0 is greater than one. In our effort to ascertain the effect of policing in the control of drug epidemics, we include a term accounting for law enforcement. Our results indicate that increased law enforcement greatly reduces the prevalence of substance abuse. In addition, initiation resulting from presence of drugs in circulation can be as high as seven times higher that initiation due to contagion alone.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical Science, University of Stellenbosch, Private Bag X1, Matieland, Stellenbosch 7602, South Africa. johnhatson@sun.ac.za
authors.forename: John Boscoh H
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Njagarah
authors.forename: Farai
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Nyabadza
mesh_terms: D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D013287:Illicit Drugs / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015995:Prevalence; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D049490:Systems Biology
chemical_list: D013287:Illicit Drugs