title: Migration and Pacific mortality: estimating migration effects on Pacific mortality rates using Bayesian models.
abstract: Pacific people living in New Zealand have higher mortality rates than New Zealand residents of European/Other ethnicity. The aim of this paper is to see whether Pacific mortality rates vary by natality and duration of residence. We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences between the overseas-born and the New Zealand-born for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, we found evidence for lower all-cause (and possibly cancer and CVD) mortality rates for Pacific migrants resident in New Zealand for less than 25 years relative to those resident for more than 25 years. This result may arise from a combination of processes operating over time, including health selection effects from variations in New Zealand's immigration policy, the location of Pacific migrants within the social, political, and cultural environment of the host community, and health impacts of the host culture. We could not determine the relative importance of these processes, but identifying the (modifiable) drivers of the inferred long-term decline in health of the overseas-born Pacific population relative to more-recent Pacific migrants is important to Pacific communities and from a national health and policy perspective.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand, ken.richardson@otago.ac.nz.
authors.forename: Ken
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Richardson
authors.forename: Santosh
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jatrana
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tobias
authors.forename: Tony
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Blakely
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000208:ethnology* / Q000401:mortality; D002423:Cause of Death / Q000639:trends; D019352:Censuses; D054242:Emigrants and Immigrants / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000208:ethnology* / Q000639:trends; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000208:ethnology* / Q000401:mortality; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D010139:Pacific Islands / Q000208:ethnology; D013997:Time Factors
references.citation: Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Mar 1;167(5):523-9; discussion 530-1
references.pmid: 18227100
references.citation: N Z Med J. 2010 Aug 13;123(1320):37-44
references.pmid: 20720601
references.citation: PLoS One. 2014 Aug 20;9(8):e105141
references.pmid: 25140523
references.citation: Heart. 2008 Apr;94(4):463-70
references.pmid: 17690159
references.citation: Environ Sci. 2005;12(3):167-76
references.pmid: 16077468
references.citation: Am J Public Health. 2006 Oct;96(10):1821-8
references.pmid: 17008579
references.citation: Arctic Med Res. 1990 Jul;49(3):142-50
references.pmid: 2206174
references.citation: Soc Sci Med. 2009 Oct;69(8):1252-60
references.pmid: 19713021
references.citation: Ethn Dis. 2001 Autumn;11(3):496-518
references.pmid: 11572416
references.citation: Ethn Health. 2010 Oct;15(5):531-47
references.pmid: 20672201
references.citation: Int J Epidemiol. 2001 Oct;30(5):1071-5
references.pmid: 11689524
references.citation: Epidemiol Rev. 2009;31:130-51
references.pmid: 19805401
references.citation: Aust Health Rev. 1998;21(2):124-33
references.pmid: 10181680
references.citation: J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2005 Oct;60 Spec No 2:68-75
references.pmid: 16251594
references.citation: Pac Health Dialog. 2003 Sep;10(2):90-8
references.pmid: 18181422
references.citation: Ethn Health. 1997 Mar-Jun;2(1-2):21-9
references.pmid: 9395586
references.citation: J Intern Med. 2003 Sep;254(3):236-43
references.pmid: 12930232
references.citation: Eur J Public Health. 2005 Oct;15(5):511-7
references.pmid: 16037077
references.citation: N Z Med J. 2009 Dec 11;122(1307):18-29
references.pmid: 20148041
references.citation: Aust N Z J Public Health. 1999 Feb;23(1):20-6
references.pmid: 10083685
references.citation: J Health Care Poor Underserved. 2002 Nov;13(4):477-503
references.pmid: 12407964
references.citation: Am J Public Health. 2001 Mar;91(3):392-9
references.pmid: 11236403
references.citation: J Behav Med. 2009 Feb;32(1):20-47
references.pmid: 19030981
references.citation: Soc Sci Med. 2006 Sep;63(6):1428-41
references.pmid: 16740349
references.citation: Asia Pac J Clin Nutr. 2002;11 Suppl 3:S569-75
references.pmid: 12492649
references.citation: Hum Biol. 2002 Feb;74(1):83-109
references.pmid: 11931581
references.citation: CMAJ. 2007 May 8;176(10):1439-40
references.pmid: 17485696
references.citation: Am J Public Health. 1999 Oct;89(10):1543-8
references.pmid: 10511837
references.citation: Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Aug 1;164(3):282-91
references.pmid: 16675533