title: Threshold analysis of reimbursing physicians for the application of fluoride varnish in young children.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Most state Medicaid programs reimburse physicians for providing fluoride varnish, yet the only published studies of cost-effectiveness do not show cost-savings. Our objective is to apply state-specific claims data to an existing published model to quickly and inexpensively estimate the cost-savings of a policy consideration to better inform decisions - specifically, to assess whether Indiana Medicaid children's restorative service rates met the threshold to generate cost-savings.
  
  
  METHODS
  Threshold analysis was based on the 2006 model by Quiñonez et al. Simple calculations were used to "align" the Indiana Medicaid data with the published model. Quarterly likelihoods that a child would receive treatment for caries were annualized. The probability of a tooth developing a cavitated lesion was multiplied by the probability of using restorative services. Finally, this rate of restorative services given cavitation was multiplied by 1.5 to generate the threshold to attain cost-savings. Restorative services utilization rates, extrapolated from available Indiana Medicaid claims, were compared with these thresholds.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For children 1-2 years old, restorative services utilization was 2.6 percent, which was below the 5.8 percent threshold for cost-savings. However, for children 3-5 years of age, restorative services utilization was 23.3 percent, exceeding the 14.5 percent threshold that suggests cost-savings.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Combining a published model with state-specific data, we were able to quickly and inexpensively demonstrate that restorative service utilization rates for children 36 months and older in Indiana are high enough that fluoride varnish regularly applied by physicians to children starting at 9 months of age could save Medicaid funds over a 3-year horizon.
authors.affiliation: Children's Health Services Research, Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
authors.forename: Kristin S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Hendrix
authors.forename: Stephen M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Downs
authors.forename: Ginger
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Brophy
authors.forename: Caroline
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Carney Doebbeling
authors.forename: Nancy L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Swigonski
mesh_terms: D002675:Child, Preschool; D017046:Cost Savings; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005459:Fluorides / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D006801:Humans; D007196:Indiana; D007223:Infant; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008484:Medicaid; D012051:Reimbursement Mechanisms; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D005459:Fluorides
keywords: Medicaid; cost-containment; costs and cost analysis; fluoride varnish; fluorides, topical; oral health; threshold analysis