title: Using public health scenarios to predict the utility of a national syndromic surveillance programme during the 2012 London Olympic and Paralympic Games.
abstract: During 2012 real-time syndromic surveillance formed a key part of the daily public health surveillance for the London Olympic and Paralympic Games. It was vital that these systems were evaluated prior to the Games; in particular what types and scales of incidents could and could not be detected. Different public health scenarios were created covering a range of potential incidents that the Health Protection Agency would require syndromic surveillance to rapidly detect and monitor. For the scenarios considered it is now possible to determine what is likely to be detectable and how incidents are likely to present using the different syndromic systems. Small localized incidents involving food poisoning are most likely to be detected the next day via emergency department surveillance, while a new strain of influenza is more likely to be detected via GP or telephone helpline surveillance, several weeks after the first seed case is introduced.
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Agency (HPA), Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Health Protection Services, Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Morbey
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Agency (HPA), Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Health Protection Services, Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Elliot
authors.affiliation: HPA, Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, London, UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Charlett
authors.affiliation: HPA, West Midlands Regional Director's Office, Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ibbotson
authors.affiliation: HPA, Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, London, UK.
authors.forename: N Q
authors.initials: NQ
authors.lastname: Verlander
authors.affiliation: HPA, Emergency Response Department, Porton Down, UK.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Leach
authors.affiliation: HPA, Emergency Response Department, Porton Down, UK.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Hall
authors.affiliation: HPA, Emergency Response Department, Porton Down, UK.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Barrass
authors.affiliation: HPA, Health Protection Services, London, UK.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Catchpole
authors.affiliation: HPA, London Regional Director's Office, Head, WHO Collaborating Centre on Mass Gatherings and High Consequence, High Visibility Events, London, UK.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: McCloskey
authors.affiliation: HPA, Gastrointestinal, Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Department, HPS Colindale, London, UK.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Said
authors.affiliation: HPA, Gastrointestinal, Emerging and Zoonotic Infections Department, HPS Colindale, London, UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Walsh
authors.affiliation: HPA, Respiratory Diseases Department, HPS Colindale, London, UK.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Pebody
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Agency (HPA), Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Health Protection Services, Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: G E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000846:Anniversaries and Special Events; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003457:Cryptosporidiosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D003967:Diarrhea; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D062486:Public Health Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D013177:Sports; D013997:Time Factors; D014839:Vomiting
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