title: The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change.
abstract: With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading-edge populations for spearheading future range shifts.
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Woodland Rd., Bristol, BS8 1UG, UK; NERC Biomolecular Analysis Facility, Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK.
authors.forename: Orly
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Razgour
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Juste
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ibáñez
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kiefer
authors.forename: Hugo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Rebelo
authors.forename: Sébastien J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Puechmaille
authors.forename: Raphael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Arlettaz
authors.forename: Terry
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Burke
authors.forename: Deborah A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Dawson
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Beaumont
authors.forename: Gareth
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Jones
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002685:Chiroptera / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D045303:Cytochromes b / Q000235:genetics; D014644:Genetic Variation; D018895:Microsatellite Repeats / Q000235:genetics; D008954:Models, Biological; D008969:Molecular Sequence Data; D010802:Phylogeny; D011157:Population Dynamics
chemical_list: D045303:Cytochromes b
keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation; Chiroptera; ecological niche modelling; niche conservatism; phylogeography
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