title: Modelling seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China.
abstract: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the major public-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of Shandong Province. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, China. sxxmyj@126.com
authors.forename: Yangjun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.forename: Maoxing
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Hou
authors.forename: Jinqing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhao
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002353:Carrier State / Q000276:immunology / Q000821:virology*; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004770:Enterovirus / Q000276:immunology / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006232:Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012621:Seasons