Risk prediction for breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer in white women aged 50 y or older: derivation and validation from population-based cohort studies.
BACKGROUND
Breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers share some hormonal and epidemiologic risk factors. While several models predict absolute risk of breast cancer, there are few models for ovarian cancer in the general population, and none for endometrial cancer.


RESULTS
Using data on white, non-Hispanic women aged 50+ y from two large population-based cohorts (the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial [PLCO] and the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study [NIH-AARP]), we estimated relative and attributable risks and combined them with age-specific US-population incidence and competing mortality rates. All models included parity. The breast cancer model additionally included estrogen and progestin menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use, other MHT use, age at first live birth, menopausal status, age at menopause, family history of breast or ovarian cancer, benign breast disease/biopsies, alcohol consumption, and body mass index (BMI); the endometrial model included menopausal status, age at menopause, BMI, smoking, oral contraceptive use, MHT use, and an interaction term between BMI and MHT use; the ovarian model included oral contraceptive use, MHT use, and family history or breast or ovarian cancer. In independent validation data (Nurses' Health Study cohort) the breast and ovarian cancer models were well calibrated; expected to observed cancer ratios were 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-1.04) for breast cancer and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.97-1.19) for ovarian cancer. The number of endometrial cancers was significantly overestimated, expected/observed = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11-1.29). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs; discriminatory power) were 0.58 (95% CI: 0.57-0.59), 0.59 (95% CI: 0.56-0.63), and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70) for the breast, ovarian, and endometrial models, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
These models predict absolute risks for breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers from easily obtainable risk factors and may assist in clinical decision-making. Limitations are the modest discriminatory ability of the breast and ovarian models and that these models may not generalize to women of other races. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America. Pfeiffer@mail.nih.gov
Ruth M
RM
Pfeiffer
Yikyung
Y
Park
Aimée R
AR
Kreimer
James V
JV
Lacey
David
D
Pee
Robert T
RT
Greenlee
Saundra S
SS
Buys
Albert
A
Hollenbeck
Bernard
B
Rosner
Mitchell H
MH
Gail
Patricia
P
Hartge
D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016889:Endometrial Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D010051:Ovarian Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D018426:SEER Program; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology