Prospective dynamic assessment of risk of sexual reoffending in individuals with an intellectual disability and a history of sexual offending behaviour.
BACKGROUND
The purpose of the present study was to add to the literature on the predictive accuracy of a dynamic intellectual disability specific risk assessment tool.


METHODS
A dynamic risk assessment for sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S), a static risk assessment for sexual offending (STATIC-99), and a static risk assessment for violence (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG]) were completed for a sample of 64 adult males with an intellectual disability.


RESULTS
The dynamic risk assessment for sexual offenders with an intellectual disability resulted in the best prediction of sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S area under the curve (AUC) = 0.92) this was better than an established sexual offending static risk assessment (STATIC-99 AUC = 0.75). A static tool for violent reoffending, did not perform as well in this group (VRAG AUC = 0.58).


CONCLUSIONS
Results suggest that dynamic variables are useful in predicting sexual reoffending with individuals with an intellectual disability, confirming previous findings. The ARMIDILO-S is a promising dynamic risk assessment for individuals with an intellectual disability.
School of Psychology, Bangor University, Bangor, UK. rachael.lofthouse@yahoo.co.uk
Rachael E
RE
Lofthouse
William R
WR
Lindsay
Vasiliki
V
Totsika
Richard P
RP
Hastings
Douglas P
DP
Boer
James L
JL
Haaven
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000295:instrumentation; D006801:Humans; D008607:Intellectual Disability / Q000523:psychology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales / Q000592:standards*; D011594:Psychometrics / Q000295:instrumentation; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology*; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult
developmental delay; dynamic risk assessment; intellectual disability; reoffending; risk assessment; sexual offending