Attribution of human Salmonella infections to animal and food sources in Italy (2002-2010): adaptations of the Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models.
The Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models were adapted to Italian Salmonella data to attribute human infections caused by the top 30 serotypes between 2002 and 2010 to four putative sources (Gallus gallus, turkeys, pigs, ruminants), at the points of animal reservoir (farm), exposure (food), and both combined. Attribution estimates were thus compared between different models, time periods and sampling points. All models identified pigs as the main source of human salmonellosis in Italy, accounting for 43-60% of infections, followed by G. gallus (18-34%). Attributions to turkeys and ruminants were minor. An increasing temporal trend in attributions to pigs and a decreasing one in those to G. gallus was also observed. Although the outcomes of the two models applied at farm and food levels essentially agree, they can be refined once more information becomes available, providing valuable insights about potential targets along the production chain.
Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety, Rome, Italy.
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Mughini-Gras
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Italy.
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Barrucci
National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
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Smid
Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety, Rome, Italy.
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Graziani
Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Department of Infectious, Parasitic and Immunomediated Diseases, Rome, Italy.
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Luzzi
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Italy.
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Ricci
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Italy.
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Barco
Bologna University, Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Bologna, Italy.
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Rosmini
National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
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Havelaar
National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
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VAN Pelt
Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety, Rome, Italy.
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Busani
D000818:Animals; D002645:Chickens; D005516:Food Microbiology; D005517:Foodborne Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D012480:Salmonella Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D013552:Swine